India's development likely to be hampered by devastating heatwaves, study warns

Risk of frequent power cuts, health problems and difficulties in reducing inequality

A woman and child in New Delhi try to cover up to avoid the sun during the heatwave last year. EPA

India may struggle to reach development goals because heatwaves are going to become increasingly severe, say researchers.

The academics say that more than 90 per cent of the country faces possible effects on, for example, crop yields, the spread of disease and the ability of people to earn a living.

Within three decades, heatwaves in India could become so extreme that even sitting in the shade could prove fatal and outdoor workers are likely to become less productive.

“Long-term projections indicate that Indian heatwaves could cross the survivability limit for a healthy human resting in the shade by 2050,” the study stated, citing previous research.

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  A parakeet is nourished with water mixed with multivitamins, after it was dehydrated during scorchingly hot weather in Ahmedabad, India. Reuters. Reuters

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  A vet administers an injection to an eagle at Jivdaya Charitable Trust, a rehabilitation centre for birds and animals, in Ahmedabad, where the temperature this week hit 45.8°C. Reuters

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  Birds falling from trees and the sky is a common occurrence every summer in India, but this year the instances have increased by 30 per cent. Reuters

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  The Jivdaya Charitable Trust is treating birds and animals for dehydration, disorientation, fractures and other injuries due to the searing heat. Reuters

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  A labourer drinks water from a tanker at a construction site on a hot summer day in Noida. India is experiencing a heatwave in the northern and western parts of the country. Reuters

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  A man cools off under a pipe of flowing water on a hot summer day in New Delhi, India. Reuters

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  A man sleeps under a bridge in a bid to escape the searing heat in New Delhi. Reuters

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  Men sleep in the shade on the banks of the Yamuna River. Reuters

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  People shelter under a bridge from scorching heat in New Delhi. EPA

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  Cracked mud at the bottom of a dry pond on a hot day in Mauharia village in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh. Reuters

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  Cattle drink water at an abandoned stone quarry in Chipiya Abhaipur, Uttar Pradesh. Reuters

Writing in the journal PLOS One, the researchers said there was an “urgent” need for the impact of extreme weather on India to be better assessed.

“Estimates show a 15 per cent decrease in outdoor working capacity (ie working outdoors in high temperatures, eg construction worker) during daylight hours due to extreme heat by 2050,” they wrote.

The study examines the deaths of 25 people when India experienced its hottest ever March and its hottest April for 122 years last year.

Since 1992, heatwaves in India have claimed more than 24,000 lives, the paper highlighted, with public health and the economy experiencing an “incredibly high” burden.

There are likely to be longer lasting and more frequent power cuts, increases in air pollution from dust and ozone, and the melting of glacier snow in India’s northern regions.

The first author of the study, Dr Ramit Debnath, of the University of Cambridge and the California Institute of Technology, said it was “highly likely” that the intensification of heatwaves in India would lead to greater loss of life.

“Mortality will increase, as well as loss of livelihood due to recurrent heatwaves,” he said. "[An] emphasis on securing protection from heat impacts for low-income communities, especially in urban areas is crucial and climate finance mechanisms can help.”

The risks could be better communicated to the population when dangers are greatest, such as through SMS alerts on mobile phones.

“The other important step is to ensure the outdoor/manual labour working force has some sort of adaptive capacity from high heat and outdoor working conditions,” Dr Debnath said.

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  An elephant is given a cooling shower at a conservation reserve in Uttar Pradesh state. AFP

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  A boy bathes as he waits to collect water from a municipal tanker on a hot summer day in New Delhi. Reuters

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  A woman fills a plastic container with drinking water from a municipal tanker in New Delhi. Reuters

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  A boy jumps into a pond in Mumbai. Large parts of India are experiencing the hottest April on record. EPA

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  A man selling candy floss in Mumbai helps a water vendor who is using an umbrella as a parasol. AP

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  Men ride a motorcycle during a hot afternoon on the outskirts of New Delhi. EPA

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  A boy eats an ice lolly on the outskirts of New Delhi. EPA

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  Women ride a motorised rickshaw in Amritsar. AFP

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  A boy drinks soda beside the Arabian Sea in Mumbai. AP

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  At a factory in New Delhi, a worker waits to load ice blocks on to a vehicle. Reuters

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  A child plays near a paddy field on the outskirts of Gauhati, Assam state. AP

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  Men enjoy a slide at a water park in New Delhi. AFP

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  People take a dip in a wave pool at a water park in New Delhi. AFP

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  Youths use their helmets to pour water over themselves near a construction site on the outskirts of Ahmedabad. Reuters

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  A labourer naps near sacks of vegetables in Jammu. AP

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  A boy bathes in the Ranbir Canal in Jammu. AP

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  A man drinks water in Allahabad. AFP

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  A woman covers her head with a plastic tub near Sangam, the confluence of the Ganges, Yamuna and mythical Saraswati rivers. AFP

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  Men walk over the bed of the Yamuna River in search of recyclable material in New Delhi. Reuters

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  Residents of New Delhi fill containers with water from a municipal tanker. Bloomberg

He also said there were measures that could be taken to reduce the impact of urban heat islands, which are areas that tend to heat up more than surrounding areas.

Providing more green spaces, which he said were fast being lost in India, would make it easier to cope with heatwaves.

The intensification of heatwaves will, the researchers said, hamper India’s efforts to reach the United Nations’ 17 sustainable development goals, which were adopted by countries in 2015 with the intention that they should be achieved by 2030.

“The core implication of this paper is that … extreme weather events will intensify the adverse effects on productivity, health, and well-being, potentially slowing down SDG progress,” the researchers wrote.

The research highlights possible effects on a wide variety of goals, including achieving energy security, reducing inequality and improving public health.

The effects will not be felt uniformly across India. West Bengal, in east India, and Andhra Pradesh, in the country’s south, face “extreme danger”.

Delhi, the capital, will face particular challenges, because it has highly concentrated slum populations and overcrowding in especially hot areas.

Overall, more parts of the country will be at risk than suggested by the Indian government’s own assessment, based on its Climate Vulnerability Index, which the researchers said should incorporate a heat index that takes into account temperature and humidity.

“A central message is it’s high time to think about reforming/improving climate vulnerability impact measures, especially for the Indian subcontinent, where it is critical to build adaptive capacity now,” Dr Debnath said.