Rising temperatures and scarce resources could open the door to mineral exploration in Antarctica. PA
Rising temperatures and scarce resources could open the door to mineral exploration in Antarctica. PA
Rising temperatures and scarce resources could open the door to mineral exploration in Antarctica. PA
Rising temperatures and scarce resources could open the door to mineral exploration in Antarctica. PA

Antarctic carve-up looms as climate change leads to race for resources


Tim Stickings
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The Earth’s polar regions could become conflict zones as climate change opens them up to mining and militarisation, experts fear.

A complete ban on mining in Antarctica is due to expire in 2048 — by which time resources on other continents may be becoming scarce. Global warming could also make the continent's water a valuable commodity.

Although there is uncertainty about what lies beneath the ice, there are estimates that the southern continent could hold billions of barrels’ worth of oil and gas reserves.

In addition, Antarctica’s ice sheet is believed to hold between 70 and 90 per cent of the planet’s fresh water. Rising temperatures have already caused one glacier alone to lose a trillion tonnes of ice.

Laura Birkman, a security analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, said these mineral attractions could make Antarctica a “major political hotbed” in the future.

By the time the mining ban comes up for discussion in 2048, fresh water could be “even more highly sought after as a result of further climate-induced water scarcity,” she said.

Speaking on an International Institute for Strategic Studies panel, she said the date was also significant because China’s rulers would be seeking material prosperity when they celebrate 100 years in power the following year.

“It will be potentially a critical year for the Chinese Communist Party in its efforts to realise its ambition to be one of the world’s most developed and powerful nations by its centenary in 2049,” she said.

The warning comes with experts and diplomats concerned more broadly that climate change will fuel conflicts over resources made increasingly scarce by natural disasters and global warming.

The midnight sun shines on the Dotson Ice Shelf in Antarctica. AP
The midnight sun shines on the Dotson Ice Shelf in Antarctica. AP

Delegates at last year’s Cop26 climate summit were told by the Nato secretary general and other top officials that environmental and security issues were two sides of the same coin.

Germany, which holds the G7 presidency this year, hopes to tackle some of the issues facing Antarctica at a Berlin conference in May, the 44th regular meeting of parties to the 1959 Antarctic Treaty.

Seven countries have territorial claims in Antarctica — Argentina, Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Norway and the UK — but these claims are partially suspended under the 1959 agreement.

A protocol to that treaty, which entered into force in 1998, designates Antarctica as a “natural reserve, devoted to peace and science” and bans mining on the continent.

Although that ban does not automatically expire after 50 years, it can be modified after 2048 by vote of a majority of the treaty’s 29 signatories.

That could open the door to exploration for oil and gas, despite many rich countries targeting 2050 as the date when they will reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions.

The Arctic could provide similar opportunities for oil and gas extraction as ice melts and waterways are opened up.

“Who has the right to control these seaways and benefit from the vast and undiscovered natural resources? This is an evolving geopolitical concern,” said Ms Birkman.

Mark Nevitt, an environmental law expert on the IISS panel, said this posed different questions to the ones commonly raised about security and climate change.

“We always talk about natural resources in the context of developing nations or poor nations. The Arctic is surrounded by very, very wealthy nations,” he said, mentioning, the US, Canada and Nordic countries as examples.

With developed countries potentially at odds, the melting ice caps could “increase the potential for militarisation and weaponisation” in the Arctic, he said.

The biog

Birthday: February 22, 1956

Born: Madahha near Chittagong, Bangladesh

Arrived in UAE: 1978

Exercise: At least one hour a day on the Corniche, from 5.30-6am and 7pm to 8pm.

Favourite place in Abu Dhabi? “Everywhere. Wherever you go, you can relax.”

Wicked: For Good

Director: Jon M Chu

Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater

Rating: 4/5

The Bio

Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
Favourite place to relax in UAE: the desert around Al Mleiha in Sharjah or the eastern mangroves in Abu Dhabi
The one book everyone should read: 100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. It will make your mind fly
Favourite documentary: Chasing Coral by Jeff Orlowski. It's a good reality check about one of the most valued ecosystems for humanity

Motori Profile

Date started: March 2020

Co-founder/CEO: Ahmed Eissa

Based: UAE, Abu Dhabi

Sector: Insurance Sector

Size: 50 full-time employees (Inside and Outside UAE)

Stage: Seed stage and seeking Series A round of financing 

Investors: Safe City Group

Friday's schedule at the Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

GP3 qualifying, 10:15am

Formula 2, practice 11:30am

Formula 1, first practice, 1pm

GP3 qualifying session, 3.10pm

Formula 1 second practice, 5pm

Formula 2 qualifying, 7pm

Racecard

6pm: The Pointe - Conditions (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,400m

6.35pm: Palm West Beach - Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (T) 1,800m

7.10pm: The View at the Palm - Handicap (TB) Dh85,000 (Dirt) 1,400m

7.45pm: Nakeel Graduate Stakes - Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (T) 1,600m

8.20pm: Club Vista Mare - Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,900m

8.55pm: The Palm Fountain - Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,200m

9.30pm: The Palm Tower - Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (T) 1,600m

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street

The seven points are:

Shakhbout bin Sultan Street

Dhafeer Street

Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)

Salama bint Butti Street

Al Dhafra Street

Rabdan Street

Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)

The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

Timeline

2012-2015

The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East

May 2017

The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts

September 2021

Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act

October 2021

Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence 

December 2024

Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group

May 2025

The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan

July 2025

The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan

August 2025

Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision

October 2025

Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange

November 2025

180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE

First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus 

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs: 2019 Haval H6

Price, base: Dh69,900

Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder

Transmission: Seven-speed automatic

Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm

Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km

British Grand Prix free practice times in the third and final session at Silverstone on Saturday (top five):

1. Lewis Hamilton (GBR/Mercedes) 1:28.063 (18 laps)

2. Sebastian Vettel (GER/Ferrari) 1:28.095 (14)

3. Valtteri Bottas (FIN/Mercedes) 1:28.137 (20)

4. Kimi Raikkonen (FIN/Ferrari) 1:28.732 (15)

5. Nico Hulkenberg (GER/Renault)  1:29.480 (14)

What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE

Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.

Expo details

Expo 2020 Dubai will be the first World Expo to be held in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia

The world fair will run for six months from October 20, 2020 to April 10, 2021.

It is expected to attract 25 million visits

Some 70 per cent visitors are projected to come from outside the UAE, the largest proportion of international visitors in the 167-year history of World Expos.

More than 30,000 volunteers are required for Expo 2020

The site covers a total of 4.38 sqkm, including a 2 sqkm gated area

It is located adjacent to Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai South

Gulf Under 19s final

Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B

While you're here
ENGLAND SQUAD

Goalkeepers Henderson, Johnstone, Pickford, Ramsdale

Defenders Alexander-Arnold, Chilwell, Coady, Godfrey, James, Maguire, Mings, Shaw, Stones, Trippier, Walker, White

Midfielders Bellingham, Henderson, Lingard, Mount, Phillips, Rice, Ward-Prowse

Forwards Calvert-Lewin, Foden, Grealish, Greenwood, Kane, Rashford, Saka, Sancho, Sterling, Watkins 

Updated: February 08, 2022, 2:54 PM