The model for a lasting solution to insurgency



Wherever government troops are fighting an insurgency, both sides can be heard proclaiming ad nauseam the importance of "winning hearts and minds". Still, like any cliché, it contains some truth. Winning loyalty - and in the end, a war - is more than a matter of military force. It must be accompanied by efforts both to understand the needs of ordinary people and to address them. If hearts and minds are to be won, there must be a commitment to establishing a government that reflects the interests of all a nation's people, not merely the interests of one race, one ethnic group, one tribe or one class.

Nowhere is the need for this understanding of hearts-and-minds more evident today than in Sri Lanka, where the world's longest running insurgency was crushed by government troops last May. After the defeat of the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), what remains unattended are the ingredients that fuelled its rise in the first place: unequal economic development, systemic political bias and cultural suppression of the Tamil minority.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa appears in no hurry to address these problems. He has burnt bridges to consolidate his own power instead of reaching out. Most notably, the opposition leader General Sarath Fonseka has been detained for weeks on dubious charges, and faces court martial tomorrow. Both sides made promises to win the Tamil vote in the last election that returned Mr Rajapaksa to power, but turnout was unsurprisingly poor. Tens of thousands of civilians are still confined to camps established during the war and there are deep reservations about the majority Sinhalese parties in Colombo.

Here is another lesson of hearts and minds: the demands of the aggrieved don't give way before mere words. The Tamil National Alliance, made up of some former supporters of the LTTE, has indicated that they are willing to give up long-standing demands for a separate state. But they are insistent on some form of local autonomy in exchange. It is a glimmer of hope for establishing a long-term peace. The details of such autonomy would have to be hammered out, of course, and there is already bickering among Tamils about dropping the statehood claim. But it is a model that has already worked in the Indonesian territory of Aceh, helping end three decades of insurgency.

Recent history is replete with examples of how the struggle to win hearts and minds failed or was ineffectively applied. It was implemented with tragic simple-mindedness by the United States following its invasion of Iraq in 2003. What progress has been made there is due to tangible hard work on political inclusivity, not just public relations efforts. There are too many ethnic, tribal and religious conflicts, in this region and elsewhere, where the real essence of winning hearts and minds must be learnt. Otherwise, from Yemen to Sri Lanka to Afghanistan, these divisions will continue to be flashpoints for future conflicts.

Vidaamuyarchi

Director: Magizh Thirumeni

Stars: Ajith Kumar, Arjun Sarja, Trisha Krishnan, Regina Cassandra

Rating: 4/5

 

German intelligence warnings
  • 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
  • 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
  • 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250 

Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution

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THE DETAILS

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Director: Ron Howard

2/5

Paatal Lok season two

Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy 

Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

Rating: 4.5/5

The specs

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”