History of UAE told through genetics



There are many ways of reconstructing the past. You can look at documents, from dusty old photographs to beautifully crafted texts from previous millennia. Or you can study archaeological sites, with their fragments of pottery, bronze artefacts and the bones of the dead.

You could even look at the present, to see what modern languages and traditions can tell you about how ancient populations spread and interacted.

Or you could look at genes. In a groundbreaking study, published in the US journal Science, geneticists in Germany and Britain have become the first to use their field to show how human populations mixed with one another in the past and when this happened.

Using techniques that can offer evidence of events as far back as 4,000 years, the scientists have looked at 95 groups of people around the world, including the UAE population.

By analysing variation between individuals and populations, they have detected that genes from groups related to the Bantu people of East or South Africa, and with similarities to some populations in West Africa, arrived in what is now the UAE in about the year 1754.

The genetic data indicates that this “admixture” event, thought to be the result of the long-abolished Arab slave trade, could have begun as early as the mid-17th century, and may have continued into the first half of the 19th century.

It was not the first such “admixture”event. An earlier one, from sub-Saharan Africa, appears to have happened about 1,200 to 1,300 years ago. That far back, though, it is much harder to say from where, or when, the genes arrived. Although then, the new arrivals also had genetic similarities to the Bantu people.

Daniel Falush, a researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany, and one of the study’s lead authors, suggests that while his research does not pin down an exact source for the older event, it could be from the same area as the more recent one.

That, he says, “would be consistent without our analysis of other nearby populations”.

It is also unclear whether the admixture events were sudden, or took place over long periods, but what is clear is that the genetic data ties in with historical evidence of the transfer of people from sub-Saharan Africa into the Arabian Peninsula about these times.

The researchers studied variation in the genetic code at almost half a million sites on the chromosomes, the structures in the nuclei of cells that contain the genetic material of 1,490 people.

Looking at the 22 pairs of chromosomes (excluding the X and Y chromosomes that determine sex), they searched for similarities between the chromosomes of different groups to highlight mixing events.

With more recent admixture, matching sections within chromosomes tend to be longer than if the mixing took place further back.

This is because, through a process called crossing over, chromosomes within a pair exchange sections with one another down the generations, breaking up stretches of DNA over time. So the lengths of shared stretches of DNA give an approximate date for admixing.

When it comes to the UAE population, the researchers found genetic resemblances to Saudi Arabians, Jordanians, Bedouin, Iranians, Syrians, Pathans and Cypriots, among others.

That there are similarities with at least a dozen other groups suggests that the UAE population, excluding the Bantu admixture, is not very similar to any one of the other populations in the sample, says Dr Falush.

But the small sample sizes – only nine Emiratis were included in the study – and the fact that the method is better at showing up recent rather than old admixtures, plus mixing events between distinct populations instead of similar ones, make it difficult to determine the relationships between the UAE population and other groups in and around the Middle East.

“It might be a mix involving some of these groups, but the analysis is also consistent with it having a long, independent history,” says Dr Falush. “It is not very surprising to me that [the study] just tells a story about African admixture [with the UAE population], because the largest differences in genetic make-up are between sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world.”

It is not just the UAE population that has evidence of African admixture. The study found that 17 populations from and around the Arabian Peninsula and the Mediterranean, including North Africa, show evidence of genes originating from populations in sub-Saharan Africa.

For groups from close to the Arabian Sea, the sources were East or South African, while with the Mediterranean populations the genes came from West Africa.

The Arab slave trade is just one of many chapters in world history highlighted in the study.

The 13th-century expansion of the Mongol empire is “geographically broad and easy to identify”, according to the researchers, appearing as “a particularly abrupt transfer of people and DNA across Asia”.

Historical evidence suggests it took, for example, just a handful of years for Genghis Khan to add Persia, much of India and northern China to his empire, so if the Mongols had children with the populations they conquered, the transfer would certainly have been abrupt.

The influence of the European slave trade, in which people from West Africa were forcibly taken to the Americas, also shows up.

As a follow-up to the project, the researchers are contributing to the “Peopling of the British Isles Project”, which will try to understand the myriad genetic influences that closely related European populations had on the people of the UK.

“Larger numbers of samples, especially if they are carefully collected from different regions and groups, could allow a much richer story to be told,” says Dr Falush.

This project will probably offer a tantalising glimpse of what might be revealed by a similarly detailed genetic analysis of the people of the Middle East.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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