An out-of-control space rocket is on a collision course with the Moon next month and is set to create a large crater on the lunar surface.
The rocket will smash into the Moon on March 4, as had previously been announced by experts.
But it has now been identified as a Chinese booster from a rocket launched in 2014, not a SpaceX rocket, as previously believed.
Students from the University of Arizona have been tracking the debris for weeks and were able to confirm its identity due to its paint job.
“I am astounded that we can tell the difference between the two rocket body options — SpaceX versus Chinese — and confirm which one will impact the moon with the data we have,” said Adam Batle, a graduate student studying planetary science.
“The differences we see are primarily due to type of paint used by SpaceX and the Chinese.”
But why will a rocket crash into the Moon and where did it come from?
Moon launch in 2014
The debris is believed to be the remains of a booster from China's Long March 3C rocket that launched the Chang’e 5-T1 lunar robotic spacecraft.
“We took a spectrum [which can reveal the material make-up of an object] and compared it with Chinese and SpaceX rockets of similar types, and it matches the Chinese rocket,” said Vishnu Reddy, an associate professor at the university.
“This is the best match and we have the best possible evidence at this point.”
Data analyst Bill Gray was the first to discover the uncontrolled debris heading towards the Moon.
He said that with all the data that is available, it is certain that an impact will take place on March 4.
“It's unclear when the Chang'e 5-T1 booster would have gone by the Moon, but four days after launch would be a reasonable ballpark estimate,” he said on his blog, where he has been posting regular updates.
Is the coming impact dangerous?
The impact will not cause any kind of safety issue for Earth, but it has added to the concerns of astronomers who say that space debris needs better tracking.
Rockets usually save enough fuel to be brought back to Earth's atmosphere and burn up, but some are discarded in space and fall into unknown orbits.
Grace Halferty, an undergraduate student at the university, said there needs to be better space traffic management.
“While this isn't the most detrimental impact, the idea of so many objects in space with unknown orbits and identities is worrying.
“There are only a handful of objects in lunar orbit, but I hope this event sheds light on the growing problem of space junk.
“This science community is concerned about the growing pollution.”
Tanner Campell, another student at the university, said that the event would help them study more about craters on the lunar surface.
“We don't often get a chance to track something we know is going to hit the Moon ahead of time,” he said.
“There is particular interest in seeing how impacts produce craters. It's also interesting from an orbital prediction perspective, because it's travelling between the Earth and moon unpropelled.
“It's just an inert rocket body tossed around by its own energy and by solar radiation pressure, so we can evaluate our models and see how good our predictions are.”
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
