When the Stanley Cup final starts on Wednesday night, the Tampa Bay Lightning will be the underdogs.
And with good reason. The Eastern Conference champions do not have the play-offs credentials of their adversaries, the Western champion Chicago Blackhawks. The Lightning also do not have the star power of their adversaries.
So, what might it take for the Lightning to win?
Here are three ideas.
1. Attack the head
One of the most surprising statistics of this post-season belongs to the Chicago defenceman Duncan Keith. He has averaged 31 minutes, 35 seconds of ice time per game. Among teams that made this year’s conference finals, the player with the second-most ice time is Brent Seabrook, also of Chicago, at 26:21. Anaheim tried to tire out Keith at the tail end of the Western final. It had no effect. But he must be human. Tampa should keep targeting Keith when he is on the ice and hope that at some point he runs out of gas.
2. Give Drouin a chance
Tampa and Chicago met twice during the regular season. On November 11 in Chicago, the Hawks won 3-2 in a shootout. On February in Florida, the Lightning won 4-0. One of the goals was by Brian Boyle thanks to a behind-the-back pass from Jonathan Drouin.
“I was getting out to fore-check and I saw him coming up, so I put on the brakes and found myself open,” Boyle said, according to nhl.com. “I had a good feeling he was going to get it out to me but I didn’t think it would be as nice as it was. It was a heck of a play, a ridiculous play … pretty much anyone can put that in the net.”
Drouin, 20, the third pick of the 2013 draft, could be the wild-card the Lightning need. He has been scratched for nine successive games because of weak defence, but he should be given a chance to disrupt the Blackhawks.
3. Hack
The last Eastern team to win the cup was Boston in 2011. The Bruins deflated the Vancouver Canucks with constant chippiness, much of which should have resulted in penalties – except that referees, especially in the final phases of the post-season, can be reluctant to assert themselves. They would rather let the players sort it out. That gives an advantage to the team that hacks the most, and if Tampa is desperate, they might wish to avail themselves of this tactic.
But even if Tampa does all these things, the Cup is probably bound for Chicago. The Hawks stumbled in the first round against Nashville, but since then they have had a laser focus on winning it all. They crushed Minnesota in a four-game sweep and absorbed every hit Anaheim could throw at them in a seven-game series.
There is one moment from the Western final that encapsulates Chicago’s determination. The Hawks were down by two goals with two minutes left in Game 5. Toews scored with 1:50 left to halve the gap. As his teammates rushed to congratulate him, he did not look at them. Instead he looked up at the scoreboard.
How much time do I have left to score another one?
He answered his own question, tying the match with 38 seconds left. And though the Hawks went on to lose in overtime, that might be remembered as the moment they showed just how hard it would be for someone to eliminate them.
They are always looking higher.
Prediction: Chicago in six.
rmckenzie@thenational.ae
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