Of the four quarter-finals, this is by some distance the most difficult to call. Each of the other three games can, on paper at least, be relatively straightforward to predict. India should beat Bangladesh. New Zealand should beat West Indies. Australia should beat Pakistan. Sri Lanka and South Africa?
There is an evenness between the two teams (not just on paper) but in the campaigns they have had. On days both have looked commanding, on others surprisingly ordinary.
With four wins and two losses each, neither ever looked in danger of not making it this far but neither arrives in Sydney without concerns.
Inevitably, with South Africa in a knockout game, one theme will prevail. On Monday, at a news conference, to the surprise of coach Russell Domingo, reporters waited as long as four minutes before asking him about choking.
It is a hackneyed subject now, however. Arguably, a bigger factor in deciding Wednesday’s game may be South Africa’s fifth bowling option, or the lack of a robust, reliable one.
Other than in the loss to India, when they played five front-line bowlers, South Africa’s fifth-bowling option has not just been a weak link, it has been a liability. In this World Cup, where batsmen are gifted the advantage of one less fielder outside the circle, that may prove critical.
Excluding the India game and the win over the UAE, South Africa’s fifth bowling option – some permutation of AB de Villiers, Faf du Plessis, Farhaan Behardien and JP Duminy – has conceded 242 runs in 35 overs for just three wickets.
It almost cost them against Zimbabwe. It did cost them against Pakistan. Wayne Parnell had a bad game against India, but surely the strength and form of their top order should allow them to risk playing six batsmen and five bowlers?
It is inconceivable that Kumar Sangakkara, Tillakaratne Dilshan and Angelo Mathews, among others, will not take advantage of anything less.
Similar issues ail Sri Lanka. If anything, they have got by with even fewer bowling resources. At least South Africa have always played four frontline bowlers. Sri Lanka have played three specialists and relied on various degrees of all-rounders to fill up the rest.
Of all the quarter-finalists, Sri Lanka conceded 300-plus totals the most times – thrice in six games. Teams with explosive batsmen, such as New Zealand and Australia, took easy advantage. Even England made 309 against them, and should really have made more.
In the worst-case scenario, it is easy to see De Villiers, on the back of a solid platform, go berserk against the attack.
Sri Lanka’s counter, of course, is that they can and have made 300-plus look piddling, against England, against Bangladesh and even, at one stage, in what could have been a remarkable chase of 377 against Australia.
Sangakkara has been scarily intent on scripting his near-perfect career with a perfect end. Combined with Dilshan, the pair has six hundreds between them. Lahiru Thirimanne has also scored good runs.
There has not been too much beyond them nor, to be fair, has there been much need, given how good the top three have been. There has been the occasional wobble and the other valedictorian, Mahela Jayawardene, could do with some runs: take away his 100 against Afghanistan and he has 21 runs in three innings.
Which leaves us, more or less, where we began, with a match too tight to call.
What could it come down to? With both sides having batted so well, it could well be that the team that has the less bad bowling day wins it.
Key men
South Africa
AB de Villiers The South Africa captain is taking limited-overs batting to new frontiers. He has been so outstanding in this tournament that people have begun to fret South Africa rely too much on him. The Pakistan loss apart that theory is yet to be fully tested, but it is true that if De Villiers has a really good day, South Africa win.
Imran Tahir Gradually, game by game, Dale Steyn is getting into his groove. Morne Morkel has been quietly outstanding, but so, too, has Tahir. His credentials as a Test "leggie" may have taken a hit, but he remains a smart and effective ODI bowler. How well Kumar Sangakkara utilises his left-hand advantage against him could be crucial.
Sri Lanka
Kumar Sangakkara Who else? For what seems an eternity now, Sangakkara has been in Bradman-esque form whatever the format or opposition. He has four hundreds in a row in this tournament. If he gets going, then he will go big and will set the tempo for Sri Lanka's match, whether that is in setting a total, or chasing one down.
Lasith Malinga He has had a quiet tournament so far, though by no means a poor one. Just that he is here after his ankle injury is triumph enough. But picture this scenario – 10, maybe 15 overs left, and De Villiers setting himself up. Which death overs bowler would you have bowling to him? Exactly.
South Africa will win if ... They find a way to balance their side with a credible fifth bowling option. They must trust in six batsmen being good enough to cash in, because against Sri Lanka's top order, they will need as many bowling options as they can muster. Wayne Parnell had a bad day against India, but if he has a good one, it could prove the difference.
Sri Lanka will win if ... Their bowling can somehow neutralise De Villiers, Hashim Amla and Faf du Plessis, among others. If the surface is slow, or given to grip and even a little turn, Rangana Herath will be very important. Otherwise, Angelo Mathews and the others will have to support Malinga up front.
Key numbers
0 – The number of knockout games South Africa have won at a World Cup.
392 – The average first-innings total at Sydney in the two full matches that have been played at the ground this World Cup (excluding the rain-interrupted Afghanistan-England game).
4 – The number of hundreds Sangakkara has made in this World Cup, as well as – more surprisingly – the number of wickets De Villiers has taken.
Pitch Sydney's three games have seen 400 crossed once and 300 twice. It has been a run-heavy ground. If there is the slightest chance that it reverts to its historic nature of assisting spin, then it might suit Sri Lanka and Herath in particular.
Our verdict AB de Villiers went from worrying his team had an over-inflated sense of self to pronouncing they are the best side in the tournament within five days. It is the kind of U-turn that can come back to haunt a man but, depending on conditions, if South Africa get it right, they should sneak this.
osamiuddin@thenational.ae
Follow our sports coverage on Twitter @NatSportUAE
