It was a weird season for quarterbacks.
A brief recap: Kirk Cousins finished with better numbers than Aaron Rodgers; luminaries like Andrew Luck and Drew Brees are sitting at home for the play-offs; non-luminaries like Kellen Moore, Austin Davis, AJ McCarron, Alex Tanney and Josh Freeman were starting in Week 17; Peyton Manning was terrible; the Cowboys started four different men under centre; both Texas teams started Brandon Weeden; Ryan Mallett started for two different teams; and everything about Johnny Manziel.
Read more: Quarterback controversy swirls in Denver while New England are shaky before NFL play-offs
All that aside, there are some familiar names leading their charges into the post-season, which starts with two Wild Card round games on Saturday night.
But in such a strange season, who should we trust?
Let’s attempt to rank the top quarterback situations among the 12 play-off teams, taking into consideration past post-season success and current form. At least the name at the top is no surprise:
1 Tom Brady, New England
Duh. The greatest post-season quarterback ever is seeking a record fifth Super Bowl win. At age 38, he threw for 4,770 yards and a league-leading 36 touchdowns. He is as good as he ever was, and it is incredible. There is no player in the league you trust more to win in January than Tom Terrific.
2 Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
It was a down season for both Rodgers and the Packers. The pre-season loss of Jordy Nelson had a bigger impact on the passing game than most people would have predicted, and Eddie Lacy’s regression in the run game did not make Rogers’s job any easier. But Rodgers has one legendary Super Bowl-winning run already under his belt, and he is still by most measures the best offensive player in football. With Rodgers, the Packers always have a chance.
3 Russel Wilson, Seattle
By recent post-season success, Wilson is who you take over anyone else. If not for one pass he should not have been asked to throw in last year’s Super Bowl, he might be looking for his third straight championship. And he has the Seahawks playing better than any other NFC team. If they did not have to win three straight road games, they would probably be the favourites in the conference.
4 Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
His two Super Bowl rings still shimmer, and he has plenty of big-game experience as he will be playing in his eighth post-season with the Steelers. He has been banged up for parts of the season, but he gets to throw to the play-off’s best weapon in receiver Antonio Brown. Big Ben has the nerves of steel to lead Pittsburgh to its first post-season win since 2010.
5 Cam Newton, Carolina
He is the likely MVP and was the most exciting player to watch this year. But you get the feeling that how Newton’s entire season will be viewed boils down to how far he leads the 15-1 Panthers in the play-offs. Anything short of a Super Bowl appearance will be a disappointment, which is a shame for a season as special as Newton’s was.
6 Carson Palmer, Arizona
If not for Newton, Palmer might be the MVP. He had eye-popping numbers throwing to the league’s best set of receivers. But amazingly, the 13th-year veteran is only making his third play-off appearance, and he has never won a play-off game. He is this high on the list on the strength of his regular season and the lack of experience among the rest of the quarterbacks.
7 Alex Smith, Kansas City
Smith had one of the most memorable post-season wins in recent history in 2012. Then with the 49ers, he led two long touchdown drives in the final four minutes to beat a red-hot New Orleans Saints to advance to the NFC title game. Two years later, he was traded to Kansas City, and now he’s leading the hottest team in the league into the Wild Card round to play a very mediocre Houston Texans team. Club history is not on his side, though, as the snakebitten Chiefs have not won a play-off game since 1993. Smith is trustworthy if not spectacular.
8 Kirk Cousins, Washington
By far the most improved player in the league, Cousins has erased any doubt that he deserved to be starting over Robert Griffin III. Washington won their final four games to win the NFC East, thanks in large part to Cousins and his 11 touchdowns, zero interceptions in those games. The team’s home game against Green Bay this week will be his first post-season experience, so how sustainable his recent success is will be put to an early test.
9 Andy Dalton or AJ McCarron, Cincinnati
You almost feel bad for Dalton, who was having by far his best season before going down in Week 14 with a thumb injury. McCarron has actually filled in admirably in his stead, so the Bengals and their stout defence might be OK this week hosting Pittsburgh regardless of which man starts. Dalton has now led the Bengals to the play-offs in all five of his pro seasons, but he has been downright awful in the post-season, going 0-4 with a 57.8 QB rating. Whether it is Dalton or McCarron, quarterback is the biggest question mark for the Bengals.
10 Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota
The Vikings won the NFC North due to its athletic defence and the running game led by Adrian Peterson, so you almost forget about Bridgewater sometimes. The second-year quarterback was not flashy, but he has been steady and plays relatively mistake-free football, having only thrown for nine interceptions this year. However, if it comes down to Minnesota having to play from behind at any point, Bridgewater is not the type of quarterback you trust to lead a big comeback.
11 Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiller, Denver
This was the weirdest of all the quarterback situations. The Broncos are somehow 12-4 and the top seed in the AFC despite shaky quarterback play. Manning is one of the greatest players in league history and a Super Bowl-winning, living legend, but he is done as a top-tier NFL player. He was replaced by Osweiller in Week 10 after a league-leading 17 interceptions and did not see the field again until replacing the middling backup mid-game in Week 17. He led a comeback win to clinch the top seed, but looked shaky and was not asked to do much. It was announced on Thursday that Manning will start over Osweiller when the Broncos play next week, but it is not a given as to who the better option would be. You do not want to be asking those questions this deep into the season, and the situation does not warrant much trust in the Broncos’ title hopes.
12 Brian Hoyer, Houston
The Texans are in the post-season because they won the worst division in football and had a JJ Watt-led defence. In other words, they are here in spite of their quarterback situation. And they draw the red-hot Chiefs in Round 1. Hoyer’s post-season stay should be a short one, but in a season this weird, he might just game-manage the Texans all the way. Who knows?
NFL play-off seeds and schedule (in UAE time)
AFC
1. Denver Broncos (12-4, West champs) Next Bye; Jan 18 v low seed
2. New England Patriots (12-4 East champs) Next Bye; Jan 17 v high seed
3. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4 North champs) Next v Pitt, Jan 10, 4.15am
4. Houston Texans (9-7 South champs) Next v KC, Jan 10, 1.35am
5. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5 Wild card) Next at Houston, Jan 10, 1.35am
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6 Wild card) Next at Cincinnati, Jan 10, 4.15am
NFC
1. Carolina Panthers (15-1, South champs) Next Bye; Jan 17 v low seed
2. Arizona Cardinals (13-3, West champs) Next Bye; Jan 17 v high seed
3. Minnesota Vikings (11-5, North champs) Next v Seattle, Jan 10, 10.5 pm
4. Washington (9-7, East champs) Next v GB, Jan 11, 1.40 am
5. Green Bay Packers (11-5, Wild card) Next at Washington, Jan 11, 1.40 am
6. Seattle Seahawks (10-5, Wild card) Next at Minnesota, Jan 10 10.05 pm
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