The long and short of it

He may start as favorite to win the US PGA Championship, but Phil Mickelson must stop making bad decisions.

Shot selection is Mickelson's weakness and when the heat is on he often gets it wrong.

He may start as favorite to win the US PGA Championship at Oakland Hills, but Phil Mickelson must stop making bad decisions if he's going to cash in on his great talent. In terms of pure ability, he's pretty close to Tiger Woods. Ever since he was a teenager he's shown that he has unbelievable talent. But at times he makes strange decisions, and can be too aggressive, allowing his driver to get him into trouble.

He's one of the best iron players in the world, and has one of the best short games. If he gets the ball into play off the tee, he's very difficult to beat. When he's under pressure, though, he often loses his drives to the left because he doesn't release the club. In the 2004 Ryder Cup at Oakland Hills, he and Tiger were level with Lee Westwood and Daren Clarke with one hole to play in the afternoon foursomes.

Mickelson pushed his drive 40 yards left of the fairway. The ball finished next to fence on the out of bounds line, and Tiger had to declare the ball unplayable, take a drop, and a penalty stroke. The match was lost. In the 2006 US Open at Winged Foot, another drive slashed way to the left on the 18th saw him let the title slip away to Geoff Ogilvy. Since he started working with Butch Harmon, he's been trying to control his aggression, but at the US Open earlier in the year he made another of his bad decisions. He made up his mind that week to go with his three wood off the tee, but he did it on a course which was the longest used for a major championship.

He definitely should hit the three wood more often, but this was an example of where he needed the driver. It was the wrong strategy for that course. Making the wrong choices, and sometimes not playing the right shot - these are the things that separate Mickelson from Tiger. Skill-wise, they're very similar. But in terms of decision making and handling pressure, they're on different planets. There will be a lot of extra pressure at Oakland Hills, which is a great course with flowing fairways and testing greens, and I wonder whether Mickelson can handle it.

There's no question about his ability, but shot selection is his weakness. Using the driver is fine when he's not feeling pressure and his swing is free flowing, but when the heat is on he often gets it wrong, and I wonder whether he accepts and acknowledges this, or whether he's in denial. That's the big question. With Tiger missing, hopes of a US win could lie between Mickelson, Jim Furyk, Stuart Cink, Steve Stricker, and Kenny Perry, who's been playing well. But after that, it's hard to see a potential American winner.

It's not the same as it used to be, when you would look at the top 25 players, and 20 of them would be Americans. It would be nice to see one of the younger Americans coming through, particularly Sean O'Hair, who has great potential, and Anthony Kim, who is being tipped to challenge Tiger. Of the Europeans, Lee Westwood may be ready to make his big breakthrough. He missed out on the US Open play-off by a shot, and he just lost out by a shot to Vijay Singh in the Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone on Sunday.

Going so close in those two huge events may convince him he has what it takes to win a major. He's one of the best drivers of a golf ball I've ever seen, his iron play is very good and his putting can be great, although it can also be average at times. If he can get that right this week, he could win. He's been a great player for a long time, but I question whether he really believed he could capture a major until now.

It's tough to count out Ernie Els, a man with almost unlimited ability. When he won the Honda Classic earlier in the year he was swinging terribly and didn't really know where the ball was going. But he still managed to win a PGA Tour event. That shows how talented he is. Working with Butch Harmon has made his swing a lot more solid. It's now a little shorter, a bit wider, and when he comes into the ball, he's not leaving the club behind himself any more.

He's getting better each week, but it will be interesting to see whether he has the confidence in his swing to win a major, or whether some of the old faults will return. I watched him at the Scottish Open and didn't like his putting stroke. It was better at Firestone last week, but can still improve. A lot of people would like Sergio Garcia to win this week He's a got just as many shots in his bag as Tiger, and is never afraid to play whatever shot is required at the right time - one of the few players with the ability to do that in a major.

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