What happens to the Middle East if Tehran falls?


Nada AlTaher
  • English
  • Arabic

Up until last week, it seemed unthinkable for a UN member state to strike a nuclear site. But Israel did just that when it launched its attack on Iran, hitting military and atomic sites, and killing key figures of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

It also seemed unthinkable for missiles to penetrate Israel’s Iron Dome and destroy infrastructure in cities such as Haifa and Tel Aviv.

Yet again, civilians are paying the heaviest price. More than 240 people have been killed in Iran so far. In Israel, at least 24 people have been killed in retaliatory strikes. One week on, the war shows no signs of abating, with the US hinting it might get involved, too.

A sense of unease has gripped the region, with neighbouring states fearing further escalation. A group of 20 countries including Gulf states, Jordan and Egypt has called for an end to hostilities. In a worst-case scenario, the repercussions could be catastrophic for them, too.

In this episode of Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher looks at the consequences of the war on the Middle East and asks what will happen to the region if Tehran were to fall? She speaks to Hasan AlHasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and Thomas Juneau, associate fellow with the MENA Programme at Chatham House and a professor at University of Ottawa, Canada.

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What is the FNC?

The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning. 
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval. 
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
 

In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
  • Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000 
  • Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000 
  • Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000 
  • Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000 
  • HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000 
  • Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000 
  • Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000 
  • Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000 
  • Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000 
  • Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000 
  • Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000 
  • Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
  • Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
  • Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Timeline

2012-2015

The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East

May 2017

The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts

September 2021

Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act

October 2021

Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence 

December 2024

Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group

May 2025

The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan

July 2025

The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan

August 2025

Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision

October 2025

Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange

November 2025

180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE

Related
TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:

- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools

- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say

- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance

- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs

- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills

- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month

- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Director: James Cameron

Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana

Rating: 4.5/5

Lexus LX700h specs

Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor

Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh590,000

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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ramez%20Galal%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMBC%20Shahid%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Global state-owned investor ranking by size

1.

United States

2.

China

3.

UAE

4.

Japan

5

Norway

6.

Canada

7.

Singapore

8.

Australia

9.

Saudi Arabia

10.

South Korea

MATCH SCHEDULE

Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Tuesday, April 24 (10.45pm)

Liverpool v Roma

Wednesday, April 25
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (10.45pm)

Europa League semi-final, first leg
Thursday, April 26

Arsenal v Atletico Madrid (11.05pm)
Marseille v Salzburg (11.05pm)

THE SPECS

Engine: six-litre W12 twin-turbo

Transmission: eight-speed dual clutch auto

Power: 626bhp

Torque: 900Nm

Price: Dh940,160 (plus VAT)

On sale: Q1 2020

The five stages of early child’s play

From Dubai-based clinical psychologist Daniella Salazar:

1. Solitary Play: This is where Infants and toddlers start to play on their own without seeming to notice the people around them. This is the beginning of play.

2. Onlooker play: This occurs where the toddler enjoys watching other people play. There doesn’t necessarily need to be any effort to begin play. They are learning how to imitate behaviours from others. This type of play may also appear in children who are more shy and introverted.

3. Parallel Play: This generally starts when children begin playing side-by-side without any interaction. Even though they aren’t physically interacting they are paying attention to each other. This is the beginning of the desire to be with other children.

4. Associative Play: At around age four or five, children become more interested in each other than in toys and begin to interact more. In this stage children start asking questions and talking about the different activities they are engaging in. They realise they have similar goals in play such as building a tower or playing with cars.

5. Social Play: In this stage children are starting to socialise more. They begin to share ideas and follow certain rules in a game. They slowly learn the definition of teamwork. They get to engage in basic social skills and interests begin to lead social interactions.

57%20Seconds
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While you're here
Stage 2

1. Mathieu van der Poel (NED) Alpecin-Fenix 4:18:30

2. Tadej Pogacar (SLV) UAE Team Emirates 0:00:06

3.  Primoz Roglic (SLV) Jumbo-Visma 0:00:06

4. Wilco Kelderman (NED) Bora-Hansgrohe 0:00:06

5. Julian Alaphilippe (FRA) Deceuninck-QuickStep 0:00:08

Abu Dhabi GP schedule

Friday: First practice - 1pm; Second practice - 5pm

Saturday: Final practice - 2pm; Qualifying - 5pm

Sunday: Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (55 laps) - 5.10pm

The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPowertrain%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20electric%20motor%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E201hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E310Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E53kWh%20lithium-ion%20battery%20pack%20(GS%20base%20model)%3B%2070kWh%20battery%20pack%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E350km%20(GS)%3B%20480km%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C900%20(GS)%3B%20Dh149%2C000%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

THE SPECS

Engine: 4.4-litre V8

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Power: 523hp

Torque: 750Nm

Price: Dh469,000

FIGHT%20CARD
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ELightweight%2010%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBader%20Samreen%20(8-0-0)%20v%20Jose%20Paez%20Gonzales%20(16-2-2)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESuper%20flyweight%2010%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ESultan%20Al%20Nuaimi%20(9-0-0)%20v%20Jemsi%20Kibazange%20(18-6-2)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECruiseweight%208%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMohammed%20Bekdash%20(25-0-0)%20v%20Musa%20N%E2%80%99tege%20(8-4-0)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESuper%20featherweight%208%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBishara%20Sabbar%20(6-0-0)%20v%20Mohammed%20Azahar%20(8-5-1)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%206%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMarwan%20Mohamad%20Madboly%20(2-0-0)%20v%20Sheldon%20Schultz%20(4-4-0)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EHeavyweight%204%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EYoussef%20Karrar%20(1-0-0)%20v%20Muhammad%20Muzeei%20(0-0-0)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%206%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBenyamin%20Moradzadeh%20(0-0-0)%20v%20Rohit%20Chaudhary%20(4-0-2)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFeatherweight%204%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EYousuf%20Ali%20(2-0-0)%20(win-loss-draw)%20v%20Alex%20Semugenyi%20(0-1-0)%0D%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What sanctions would be reimposed?

Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:

  • An arms embargo
  • A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
  • A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
  • A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
  • Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods

Film: In Syria
Dir: Philippe Van Leeuw
Starring: Hiam Abbass, Diamand Bo Abboud, Mohsen Abbas and Juliette Navis
Verdict: Four stars

'Worse than a prison sentence'

Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.

“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.

“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.

“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.

“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.

“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”

Playing records of the top 10 in 2017

How many games the top 10 have undertaken in the 2017 ATP season

1. Rafael Nadal 58 (49-9)

2. Andy Murray 35 (25-10)

3. Roger Federer 38 (35-3)

4. Stan Wawrinka 37 (26-11)

5. Novak Djokovic 40 (32-8)

6. Alexander Zverev 60 (46-14)

7. Marin Cilic 43 (29-14)

8. Dominic Thiem 60 (41-19)

9. Grigor Dimitrov 48 (34-14)

10. Kei Nishikori 43 (30-13)

The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm

Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm

Transmission: 9-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh117,059

Updated: November 19, 2025, 11:38 AM
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