America’s policy on the Syrian civil war has always been muddled. But for at least two years its policy has been positively dangerous, both for the Middle East and for Europe. The longer the civil war has raged, the more it has become clear that the US has no intention nor will to act. And that has simply emboldened its enemies.
The latest statements by John Kerry on Bashar Al Assad illustrate this. By pointing out that Mr Al Assad must relinquish power, he was merely restating what has been US policy for nearly two years. But by saying that the timing was open to discussion he was, in effect, conceding that the US and its allies no longer hold many cards, and would have to defer to Russia on that issue. That is catastrophic.
In politics, words matter. Mr Kerry’s ambiguity on when Mr Al Assad must leave power is not helpful. As America’s top diplomat – but especially as someone with decades of experience in politics – he should know that words have consequences. That especially applies to the words of representatives of the remaining superpower.
Somehow, over Syria, that lesson has been lost. It started with Barack Obama rashly drawing a “red line” over use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime, only for the regime to gleefully trample over that line. That was noted in many capitals around the world, not merely Damascus.
Now, while Washington and its allies talk tough on Syria, it is clear there is no steel to back up the words. That, too, has been noted, because while Mr Kerry and Mr Obama have been prevaricating on what to do, supporters of the Assad regime have not been standing still. Iran has sent some of its best military assets to Syria. Russia, just in the last week, has deployed fighter jets to the country as well as tanks and surface-to-air missiles. The US response was shocking in its weakness: the aircraft, said Mr Kerry, “raises serious questions”.
The longer the conflict has gone on, the worse the consequences have become. And the longer the US has waited to take decisive action, the more its options have narrowed. Delaying early on in the civil war allowed ISIL to take root. Delaying has allowed Russia to build up its military inside Syria, making the possibility of a no-fly zone unworkable. Delaying another month, or year, will narrow the options still further. America’s weak words are having very hard consequences on the ground.
