The chaos in Washington is now far beyond the mere political “disruption” promised by Donald Trump. He has, in amazingly short order, so compromised key norms and institutions of American governance that much of the system has been cast into open-ended disarray. Any further deterioration could have serious consequences for American allies, including in the Gulf.
Last weekend, Mr Trump made by far the most incendiary charge ever levelled by any American president against a predecessor, accusing Barack Obama of illegally wiretapping his communications for political purposes during the presidential campaign and calling him a “bad (or sick) guy”.
But this is not only an accusation against Mr Obama. Any such surveillance would have been conducted by the FBI, which also would have broken the law, as well as its own strict policies.
FBI director James Comey and Mr Obama have reportedly vehemently denied the accusations. And no one in the Trump administration can offer any evidence to support the claim, or is even willing to say they believe it’s true.
However, it seems that a computer server in Trump Tower and some of Mr Trump’s associates may have been incidentally caught up in lawful and court-authorised foreign intelligence surveillance of two Russian banks. Beyond that, additional intelligence or criminal warrants may exist.
If that’s what Mr Trump was referring to, he inexplicably decided to implicate himself in an actual criminal or intelligence investigation.
Lindsey Graham, a Republican senator, has called this an unprecedented scandal and, in a letter co-authored with another senator, demanded copies of any relevant criminal court orders or warrants. Mr Graham notes that either Mr Obama illegally tapped Mr Trump’s communications or he obtained legal warrants to do so based on demonstrable evidence of foreign intelligence or criminal activity.
But what is, perhaps, even more disturbing and clearly implicit in Mr Graham’s carefully worded formula, is a third scenario: that Mr Trump was making groundless, and indeed libellous, accusations against Mr Obama and the FBI because he is a stranger, equally, to both reason and reality, and because issuing these tweets simply made him feel good.
Americans and their allies are thus now confronted with one of only three possibilities. Either Mr Obama is a heinous villain. Or Mr Trump is a suspected criminal, or agent of a foreign power, based on credible evidence. Or Mr Trump is pathologically unstable.
There is no plausible fourth explanation of the facts, despite efforts by some Trump supporters to posit interpretations wherein both his accusations and the unanimous official denials can somehow both be correct. They can’t.
And no matter which of these three scenarios proves true, Washington is in desperate trouble.
Meanwhile, an almost daily drip of revelations involving ties between the Trump camp and Russia is exacerbating profound suspicions of improper collusion.
The publication Politico has even issued seven flowcharts illustrating these mind-bogglingly elaborate ties. They all might amount to nothing, except that so many have been falsely denied – not least by Mr Trump, who now insists “I have nothing to do with Russia,” while for years he boasted about his deep Russian connections.
Too many lies. Too much smoke.
Several investigations are under way, and the truth will be out. But, for now, the Trump administration is greatly distracted and badly damaged.
For the Gulf Arab countries, this is very bad news.
They had much to legitimately hope for from Mr Trump and several of his senior appointees, as illustrated by the state department’s recent decision to unblock the sale of precision munitions to Saudi Arabia.
But the downside of the Trump presidency has been the destabilising uncertainty it has produced over US international attention and intentions.
Admittedly, Mr Trump’s caprices are an even bigger headache for Americans, above all his own national security professionals, who can’t guess what bizarre bombshell is coming next from a profoundly impulsive president who clearly regards them as an enemy within.
Vertiginous disorientation now transcends mere policy doubts, undermining the stability, credibility and future of the administration itself.
The Gulf countries were unhappy with Mr Obama because he generated doubts about Washington’s reliability, mainly through his words, but also, sometimes, his risk-averse deeds such as the Syria “red line” reversal.
Mr Trump has added extreme unpredictability to apparent unreliability, greatly complicating, rather than resolving, these concerns. Gulf countries should therefore hope for a quick resolution, either way, to the governance crisis in Washington.
Should Mr Trump somehow stabilise his parlous political condition, some of their hopes regarding US policies may be realised.
But if he continues to spiral into chaos and paralysing dysfunction, Gulf countries would be clear beneficiaries of a rapid and smooth transition of power.
They would, after all, still be dealing with a post-Obama Republican White House and Congress. Just without this unsustainable, unmanageable volatility.
Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
On Twitter: @ibishblog
