Chris Blackhurst is a former editor of The Independent, based in London
May 11, 2022
How things change. Only five months ago, major UK retailers were upgrading their profit forecasts for the year ahead. They’d just enjoyed a bumper holiday season, consumer confidence as the country emerged from the pandemic, was high, workers were returning to their offices, shopping districts were buzzing again, normality was returning, there were good grounds for optimism. In manufacturing, the signs were encouraging, with the promise of much capital investment and building projects. In the City, too, it was all systems go, on a flood of likely deals and IPOs.
Sure, there were problems with supply chains, partly Brexit-related, partly global. Businesses were complaining of staffing shortages. There were inflationary pressures and rates were heading upwards. None of it, though, was regarded as that awful.
Now look. Retail sales fell in April, the first decline in 15 months, and down from a 3.1 per cent rise the previous month. All that buoyancy, relative as it was, has disappeared. The British Retail Consortium has been tracking the economy with advisory firm KPMG. The BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said that “the rising cost of living has crushed consumer confidence and put the brakes on consumer spending". Property analysts are saying demand that was pushing up values has spiked. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is warning of looming recession.
What’s changed? In a word, Ukraine. Russia’s invasion has exacerbated those underlying tensions. Prices that were already climbing are set to rise higher. Energy bills, for households and let us not forget, for industry and all businesses, are jumping upwards. Where it can be, investment has been put on hold; those big-money City plays, likewise, are on ice. Where there was promise, there is now uncertainty.
With that, too, is political instability. In the last few months, since those retailers were sounding so cheerful, “Partygate” has occurred. On one level, it's easy to be dismissive of the holding of parties by Boris Johnson and some of his colleagues in contravention of the lockdown rules. Compared with a war, for instance, it is poles apart. But on another, this is a scandal that has threatened his very leadership. And continues to do so – the latest twist being that the Opposition leader, Sir Keir Starmer, has been similarly accused and he has said that if he is fined then he will resign, thus throwing the spotlight on to Mr Johnson’s lack of integrity.
It’s possible the UK could end up without a leader of the Opposition and Prime Minister, in short order. That may not occur but the very prospect feeds into the mood of foreboding and gloom. What it does do is focus the minds of politicians and civil servants, to the extent they are talking of little else and this at a moment of national economic crisis.
Some economists have forecast the UK is heading for a recession, partly as a result of the war in Ukraine. Getty
That sense is not helped either by the sight of Prince Charles reading the Queen’s Speech. The monarch is elderly and increasingly frail, but she is the mother of the nation – even when others were behaving badly, she was a rock on which the country could depend. Her weakness contributes to the air of despondency and helps to undermine that all-important consumer confidence.
It’s difficult to see where the government goes. Mr Johnson promised in that Queen’s Speech to make ascending prices and bills his priority. His knee-jerk response would be to throw cash at the problem, as he did with Covid. Here, though, he has little wriggle-room as to make a genuine difference: where the funding would come from is far from clear. Taxes are already high, and his backbenchers are not going to allow him to push them higher; as Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, will doubtless be telling him, there is little spare cash, especially as those pandemic measures must be paid for.
Mr Johnson may have to put projects on hold, something that as a natural carefree spender he will be reluctant to do. If he’s not careful it could prove costly electorally – his ‘Red Wall’ support among historically Labour seats in the North of England is holding up and it stayed reasonably solid in the recent local elections, but only for so long. He pledged "levelling up" and Northerners are looking for tangible proof of his seriousness.
In the Queen’s Speech and the debate that followed, Johnson spoke repeatedly of achieving “growth”. It’s the new mantra, not relying on government spending and intervention but throwing it back to enterprise, to the markets to do the rest. There was no detail offered as to where this expansion was going to come from. He spoke, again as he often does these days in that cavalier, broad brush, boosterish way of his, about the hundreds of thousands of highly-skilled new jobs being created, without saying what posts, where.
The Bank of England says the UK is slipping to recession; Johnson speaks of “growth” and adding vast numbers of high worth jobs. Go figure.
Masks depicting UK cabinet officials are left on the ground, outside the Lloyd's of London building, in the City of London financial district, in London. REUTERS / Henry Nicholls
There are grounds for hope. The UK is still in the first flush of exiting Covid and there are two years of savings to be unleashed – many households are not as badly off as the national economic picture might suggest. Some spending may reduce, but other items, such as holidays and entertainment, could stay strong. While fuel bills are mounting, this is the beginning of the warmest period of the year in the UK when gas usage falls. If the Ukraine conflict was to end soon and fuel costs were to stabilise, that would provide some comfort – although it is by no means clear how the UK is going to safeguard its energy security in the future, at least in the short term.
Similarly, if a degree of certainty returned to the markets, the City would regain the spring in its step – those mandates and accompanying commissions would be back on.
The Brexit niggles must, surely, be resolved – although Northern Ireland is as intractable as ever. Who knows, the saga of who ate and drank what, when, where and crucially, how the event was described, may even come to an end. It has to, eventually. Whether that heralds a change in Prime Minister, who knows. Nobody thought life under Mr Johnson was going to be dull, but goodness, the country could do without being on a permanent roller-coaster.
Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
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The biog
Fast facts on Neil Armstrong’s personal life:
Armstrong was born on August 5, 1930, in Wapakoneta, Ohio
He earned his private pilot’s license when he was 16 – he could fly before he could drive
There was tragedy in his married life: Neil and Janet Armstrong’s daughter Karen died at the age of two in 1962 after suffering a brain tumour. She was the couple’s only daughter. Their two sons, Rick and Mark, consulted on the film
After Armstrong departed Nasa, he bought a farm in the town of Lebanon, Ohio, in 1971 – its airstrip allowed him to tap back into his love of flying
In 1994, Janet divorced Neil after 38 years of marriage. Two years earlier, Neil met Carol Knight, who became his second wife in 1994
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
