Turkey’s war of unintended consequences

Domestic politics or not, Ankara is playing a dangerous game with Kurds at a pivotal time

Police forensic experts examine the scene after a suspected PKK attack on a police station in Istanbul, Turkey. Huseyin Aldemir / Reuters

After a day of violence in Turkey on Monday, it would make sense for Ankara to expand its continuing war against the Kurdish militants it holds responsible. This is a pivotal moment in a much larger regional conflict. If Ankara chooses to expand its campaign against Kurdish militants it would be a profound distraction from the real challenge facing Turkey and the region: ISIL.

Why then might the Turkish leadership choose this moment to renew its hostilities with the Kurds? Since ISIL militants carried out a suicide bombing in the southern Turkish city of Suruc, killing 33 civilians, Ankara has been on a war footing. While the bombing spurred a long-awaited warming in Ankara’s relationship with the anti-ISIL coalition, Turkey has used it to target Kurdish fighters more than ISIL ones. Since the bombing, Turkish security forces have reportedly apprehended more than 1,000 alleged Kurdish militants and only 45 suspected ISIL fighters. Their air force did carry out a handful of attacks on ISIL targets, but it has focused its attention on Kurdish strongholds in northern Iraq. Turkey is clearly concerned about the creation of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq and Syria amid the chaos.

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey had been “sincere” in the peace process with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) but couldn’t continue because the process had been “exploited” through attacks on Turkish targets.

Given the history of animosity between the PKK and Turkey, it seems as though these moves are designed to provoke sentiments that will translate into more votes for Mr Erdogan’s AKP if early parliamentary elections are called. Turkey remains without a governing coalition and if elections were called today, the AKP would regain its majority according to Turkish pollster MAK.

Playing politics is a dangerous game with unintended consequences. Take the events of this week. Six security officers were killed in three separate attacks on Monday. In Istanbul, a suicide bomber with alleged PKK links blew up a vehicle outside a police station, killing one officer.

While Turkish politics has long had an opaque veneer that has resulted in a political spectrum rife with conspiracy theories, Ankara can’t allow itself to become embroiled in a new war with the PKK as the much greater menace of ISIL continues to gain strength just beyond the border in Syria. Opening the Incerlik airbase near Syria to coalition aircraft bombing ISIL targets was an important step. How Ankara can be persuaded to step back from the brink of war with the PKK remains a difficult question. But the region needs Turkey to focus on the biggest challenge. Turkey should take a step back from its fight with the PKK, even as it takes a step forward in the bigger war with ISIL.