British prime minister Theresa May’s meeting with new US president Donald Trump tomorrow is being pitched as a new chapter in the Anglo-American special relationship.
The meeting will discuss a potential bilateral deal that would involve cutting tariffs and easing the movement of workers between the two countries. International terrorism and the resolution of Syria’s conflict will feature on the agenda, and Mrs May will also seek assurances that the United States remains committed to Nato. Both leaders will reaffirm their commitment to spending at least 2 per cent of their GDP on defence and call on other members of the alliance to do likewise. As the first foreign leader invited to meet the new president, Mrs May is seeking to leverage the honour in order to reaffirm her country’s status as a major player in the international system. For the prime minister, the promised revival of the special relationship accords perfectly with her vision of a “global Britain” that can forge new alliances and strengthen old ones as it attempts to leave the European Union.
For the new president, Mrs May’s visit offers him the chance to demonstrate his previously stated affection for Britain based on his mother’s Scottish roots as well as varied business interests. Evoking the warm personal relationship between Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s, sources report that Mr Trump already refers to the prime minister as “my Maggie”. After cancelling the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, a potential deal with the United Kingdom would demonstrate that the Trump administration is prepared to strengthen old alliances and play a constructive role on the international stage.
While Mr Trump will probably score an easy win from the meeting, the prime minister is looking to lay the foundations for long-term commitments that may offset the trauma of Britain’s departure from the EU. Given the British Supreme Court’s decision this week that the government cannot trigger Brexit without parliamentary approval, the Washington talks come at an opportune time for Downing Street.
From a tactical perspective, the promise of reduced or cancelled tariffs could give Mrs May leverage with Brussels and the European governments as the Article 50 talks get under way, not least in terms of real substance to her threat to adopt a new economic model for the UK if it exits the EU in acrimonious circumstances. She has already threatened to walk away from any deal that the government judges be unacceptable.
Downing Street is counting on the perception that Britain still has a close relationship with the world’s most powerful nation to encourage European leaders to adopt a realistic approach.
More positively, Mrs May hopes to demonstrate Britain’s potential role as a transatlantic mediator that can promote the interests of its European allies. In her conversations with Mr Trump, she will stress the importance of Nato and support for the EU as essential to the interests of the Anglo-American alliance. The prime minister thus hopes to demonstrate that Britain’s permanent UN Security Council seat, its nuclear deterrent and its intelligence assets will make it a valuable partner for Europe even after it leaves the union.
Nevertheless, despite some common ground, there is still plenty of scope for Anglo-American discord on a wide range of issues. The new president’s opposition to climate change accords such as Cop21 will generate tensions with other G20 powers including the United Kingdom. Cordial relations between Mr Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin also bode ill considering London’s hardline stance on enforcing sanctions against Russia for its annexation of Crimea. The prospect of worsening relations between the US and China over trade and territorial rights in the South China Sea is bad news for Britain given that it is counting on new trade links with East Asia including Chinese investment in the UK.
The prime minister is also well aware of the widespread dismay felt in Britain along with many other countries at the accession of the abrasive and controversial Mr Trump to the presidency. One year ago, the House of Commons debated banning Mr Trump from entering Britain after his threat to ban Muslims from the United States generated a petition with over half a million signatures. Although no vote was taken, a proposed presidential visit to the UK this year would be likely to lead to vociferous public demonstrations from a wide range of activists angered by the new administration’s perceived lack of concern for the environment and willingness to jettison international agreements.
Mrs May therefore needs to take care about her perceived closeness to the new occupant of the White House. While her visit to Washington will go some way to injecting new impetus into Anglo-American relationship, Mr Trump’s instinctive “America First” impulse should not be underestimated. The prime minister would be wise to recall how her predecessor Tony Blair’s reputation was permanently tainted by his association with George W Bush’s administration following the botched aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Sentiment and flattery cannot be substitutes for a realistic assessment of the UK’s national interests.
Stephen Blackwell is an international politics analyst
