Is goodwill in the air between India and Pakistan?

Shaukat Qadir wonders whether long-term peace between India and Pakistan could finally be possible to achieve

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi with his Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif, in Lahore. AFP

Narendra Modi’s surprise visit to Pakistan last month had everybody wondering how soon it would be before the resumption of peace talks between the two neighbours.

As always, a reality check was soon delivered. Five days later, terrorists entered an Indian air force base at Pathankot. The militant group Jaish-e-Muhammed claimed responsibility for the attack. As if that were not enough, Afghan terrorists also attacked the Indian consulate in Mazar-e-Sharif.

The timing of the attacks continues to amaze me. Apparently no one on either side of the border knew of Mr Modi’s intention to drop in on Lahore and the Pathankot attack was certainly not the kind that could be planned within a short period of time.

However, I was soon in for a more pleasant surprise than Mr Modi’s visit. Even as some of the Indian media began baying for blood, saner voices, like the Indian Express, commented to the effect that this would test statesmanship on both sides.

But it was the measured official Indian response that was most welcome. No histrionics, no threats or warnings, just a diplomatic request. The Pakistani response was equally well-measured and a high-level meeting was held involving all those who matter in the security field.

The meeting decided to seek more help from India to identify individuals and security forces began rounding up suspects, including Jaish’s leader Masood Azhar, who is reported to be in custody.

It certainly seems a very encouraging atmosphere. This time high-level talks have merely been deferred not cancelled. Most importantly, Rajnath Singh, India’s home minister, categorically stated that there is no reason to distrust Pakistan’s assurance. “Pakistan is itself a victim of terrorists,” he added.

The cordiality and the entire exchange augurs well for a better atmosphere between the two countries. Goodwill is in the air, which gives hope that peace talks between these two nuclear-armed neighbours might take place and, indeed, for regional peace.

Most theorists have been at pains to point out that the surest road to peace is through mutual economic interdependence. For students of conflict resolution, like me, the incentive/ deterrent theory sounds to be most compelling.

According to this theory, countries are most likely to resolve conflicts if they stand to gain something from resolution or lose something by not resolving their conflict.

Obviously, therefore, if both gain by conflict resolution and stand to lose by not resolving it, their compulsion in favour of conflict resolution will be overpowering.

In an earlier article, while discussing Mr Modi’s surprise visit at Christmas, I dwelt briefly on Pakistan’s geostrategic location and how, if India chose to, it could be of immense use to India. If we travel down that road, it will not only be of help to India alone, but to Pakistan as well as the entire region.

Germany and France had a centuries-old conflict over Alsace and Lorraine, which had been governed periodically by both countries. After the Second World War, the region was taken over by France, but both countries realised that their economic future was going to be interdependent and, in time, the dispute resolved itself.

If you give people an incentive then the impossible becomes possible.

Are Pakistan and India headed there? It is impossible to tell at this juncture. Early days still.

In 2001, Pervez Musharraf, then Pakistan’s president, reached out to India at an international conference. At the time, I asked an Indian friend what he thought of the president’s peace overtures. His response was interesting. He said: “Musharraf was the architect of the Kargil conflict, so I cannot trust him. But, for the same reason, if any Pakistani leader can make peace with India, it will be him.”

Today, I think I can return the favour with regard to Mr Modi. Given his track record as prime minister, I personally cannot trust him. But, if any Indian politician can initiate a peace process towards Pakistan and pursue it to its logical conclusion, it is Mr Modi.

I hope he does and succeeds.

Brig Shaukat Qadir is a retired Pakistani infantry officer