In some parts of the Middle East, the pandemic has only just begun

The region has not yet been battered like Europe or America, but its systemic weaknesses could make it more vulnerable to a second wave

Yemeni physician Sami Yahya Al Hajj provides free medical service from his car in the capital Sanaa. AFP

'Stop me if you need a medical consultation', reads a sticker on the rear window of Sami Yahya Al Hajj's car, alongside a cartoon figure of the bearded doctor wearing his square spectacles. AFP

In a war-ravaged country now battling coronavirus, the Yemeni doctor has hit the road to dispense medical advice from his car, gathering a large social media following along the way. AFP

Women make protective face masks to be used to help curb the spread of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, at a textile factory in Sanaa. EPA

A Yemeni volunteer wearing a protective suit sprays disinfectant at a neighbourhood amid the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic in Sanaa. EPA

More than 160 Yemeni women work in a revitalised textile factory in Sanaa to make nearly 15,000 protective face masks per day amid a severe shortage of surgical masks. EPA

A worker disinfects a shopper's hands as a preventive measure against the spread of the new coronavirus before they enter a mall in Sanaa. AP

Yemenis walk past historic buildings amid the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic in the old quarter of Sanaa. EPA

A nurse and a trainer during a lesson on how to operate ventilators recently provided by the World Health Organisation, in an intensive care ward for coronavirus patients in Sanaa. Reuters, file

Yemenis fill their jerrycans carried by donkeys with water from a cistern at a make-shift camp for the internally displaced in the northern Hajjah province. AFP

The pace of news developments is overwhelming. With the latest demonstrations against police violence in the US and globally, the reopening of economies around the world, the latest utterances of the American President, and unfolding military campaigns around the region, the coronavirus pandemic can sometimes feel like a fading concern. Those of us whose families and loved ones escaped unscathed from the virus may be lulled into a false sense of security.

But we must not let our guard down at a crucial moment when the virus is experiencing an alarming resurgence, including in the Middle East, as countries reopen. Vulnerable communities are at heightened risk as cases climb again in the region.

Last week, a second wave of coronavirus infections hit Iran, which experienced a daily increase in cases unseen since March, with 3,574 new infections recorded last Thursday over a period of 24 hours alone. The rise raised concerns about the speed with which the country was reopening its economy, houses of worship and other facilities.

An Iranian sanitary worker disinfects Qom's Masumeh shrine on February 25, 2020 to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. AFP

Iranian Firefighters disinfect streets in the capital Tehran in a bid to halt the wild spread of coronavirus on March 13, 2020. AFP

A nearly empty Hazrat Masumeh Shrine in Qom, Iran on March 1, 2020. AFP

Iranian Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi (left) wipes the sweat off his face, during a press conference with the Islamic republic's government spokesman Ali Rabiei in the capital Tehran on February 24, 2020. AFP

An image grab of footage obtained from Iranian State TV IRINN on February 25, 2020, shows Iran's deputy health minister Iraj Harirchi speaking in a video apparently shot by himself, regarding being infected with coronavirus. AFP

Iran's Azadi (Freedom) Tower is lit up with flags and messages of hope in solidarity with all the countries affected by the coronavirus pandemic, in Tehran on March 31, 2020. AFP

Iranian workers set up a makeshift hospital inside the Iran Mall, northwest of Tehran, on March 21, 2020 amid the coronavirus outbreak. - Iran said that 123 more people had died from coronavirus, raising the official death toll to 1,556 in the Islamic republic, one of the world's worst affected countries. AFP

Volunteers wearing protective clothing, take part in disinfecting a village during the coronavirus outbreak, in the outskirts of the city of Ghaemshahr, in north of Iran, on Wednesday, April 29, 2020. AP Photo

Shoppers clad in protective gear, including face masks and shields and latex gloves, due to the coronavirus pandemic, walk through the Tajrish Bazaar in Iran's capital Tehran on April 25, 2020. AFP

A customer wears a protective masks at a pharmacy in the Iranian capital Tehran on February 24, 2020. AFP

A Tehran Municipality worker cleans a bus to avoid the spread of Covid-19 on February 26, 2020. AFP

A man stands by the closed gate outside the Imamzadeh Saleh in the Iranian capital Tehran's Shemiran district on April 25, 2020 . AFP

Labourers unloading medical equipment and coronavirus testing kits provided by the World Health Organisation, from a UAE military transport plane upon their arrival at Mehrabad International Airport in Iran's capital Tehran. AFP

In Egypt, the minister of scientific research has said the real number of cases in the country had probably exceeded 100,000 – more than four times the 25,000 official cases that had been recorded as of June 1 (it has since increased to around 35,000).

Likewise in Yemen, while the numbers for the whole country are officially just under 500 cases with 112 deaths, the figures for Aden alone are believed to be in the hundreds, according to  local funeral workers, grave diggers and residents. Few believe the unlikely statistics supplied by the Houthis of just four cases, which the group's health minister acknowledged to the Associated Press was a way to avoid scaring people. This in an impoverished country already wracked by war, poverty and other disease.

The United Nations has said there was a sharp increase in cases and weekly deaths as countries in the region reopened and lifted lockdowns in recent weeks. Overall, there are more than 430,000 coronavirus infections in the Middle East and North Africa, with over 11,000 deaths. In many countries with food insecurity, ongoing conflict, lack of hospitals and poor public health infrastructure, among other humanitarian crises, the pandemic is worsening many of these challenges. The spread of the virus in refugee camps, for instance, could spell disaster.

Syrian refugees in a construction site they have been using as a shelter in the southern Lebanese city of Sidon as Lebanon enters lockdown to protect against coronavirus outbreaks, on March 17, 2020. AFP

Many child refugees are also living in the construction site. AFP

Refugees in Edirne, Turkey, near the border with Greece, wear protective face masks on March 10, 2020. Bloomberg

Afghan health workers check the temperatures of Afghan refugees returning at the Islam Qala border crossing with Iran on March 18, 2020. Tens of thousands of Afghan refugees are being expelled from Iran over the past few months. AP Photo

An information poster on the coronavirus is secured to a fence among refugees from various African nations living on a city sidewalk in Cape Town, South Africa, on March 23 2020. EPA

A Palestinian boy sells cleaning tools and sanitisers amid concerns over the spread of coronavirus, at Beach Refugee Camp in Gaza City, Palestine, on March 22, 2020. Reuters

A Palestinian health worker checks the body temperature of a child at a United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) school at Al Shati refugee camp in Gaza City, Palestine on March 18, 2020. AFP

Displaced Syrians wear protective masks as they leave a lecture provided by staff from Turkey's Humanitarian Relief Foundation to raise awareness about the coronavirus pandemic at a refugee camp in Kafr Lusin, Syria, on March 23, 2020. AFP

Members of the Syrian Civil Defence, also known as the 'White Helmets', sterilise a school in the area of Ghosn Al Zeitun in Afrin on March 18, 2020 as part of a campaign to disinfect schools against the coronavirus. AFP

A Syrian medic holds an awareness campaign on how to be protected against the coronavirus, in a camp for displaced people in Kafr Lusin, Syria, on March 18, 2020. AFP

The Middle East has, up until now, thankfully been spared the worst of the pandemic, at least compared to developed countries like the US. The reasons why are a mystery, with so much still unknown about this virus and how it spreads and infects hosts. It is a mercy, at a time of grave suffering, that the region’s impoverished and overcrowded cities have not yet become hotspots for infection.

But the surge in cases as the lockdowns have been lifted is cause for vigilance. The increase is merely an indicator, as some countries lack the capability to test a large proportion of the population. Egypt’s situation may be indicative of how many hidden cases remain untested and untreated.

This is one side of the pandemic equation – the lifting of lockdowns should not spell the end of precautionary measures such as wearing masks, limiting indoor gatherings and being broadly cautious as life returns to some measure of normal, as has been spelt out in the UAE. Government policies need to reflect this caution that is rooted in how little we still know about the virus and its real reach in the region.

The other aspect of the response ought to look to the post-Covid-19 world. Yes, there will be one, whether we coexist with the virus and the risk of contracting it or we develop a treatment or vaccine. The virus has highlighted many of the weaknesses and inequalities in public health, social welfare, education, the economy and many other fields of human endeavour. The pandemic, for all its heartbreak, offers the clearest vision yet of these failings, and the path forward in fixing these challenges.

We can start by ensuring hospitals, ICUs, schools, public information systems and governments are trained and equipped to respond to future public health emergencies. We can start by making sure social safety nets for women, who are more vulnerable to abuse and shoulder most household duties during lockdowns, threatening their careers and economic potential, are widely available. We can start by finding better ways to support workers and small businesses that will struggle to survive devastating recessions. We can start by making sure the elderly, the disabled, migrant workers and the impoverished are taken care of.

We are not out of the woods yet. But with the right vision, we can build a more just society once we are.

Kareem Shaheen is a former Middle East correspondent based in Canada