France's foreign policy is not identical to that of the US in much of the Middle East and North Africa. And yet, some co-ordination in the two countries' diplomatic initiatives in the region has become evident, particularly from the recent visit to crisis-hit Lebanon by French President Emmanuel Macron, followed by that of David Schenker, the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs. How effective this co-ordination proves to be is, of course, an open question. Nonetheless, it is noteworthy.
The US has often considered French diplomacy to be more performative than impactful. But as is evidenced in recent days, that may be changing.
The Trump administration is backing France's Lebanese demarche in the aftermath of the devastating Beirut Port blasts a month ago. Indeed, there are enough signs to suggest that US President Donald Trump has encouraged Emmanuel Macron, his French counterpart, in sparing no effort to aid Lebanon – provided this does not violate the red lines the US has drawn with regard to Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia and political entity that wields considerable influence in the Arab country.
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French President Emmanuel Macron speaks at a news conference in Beirut on September 1, 2020, during his second visit to Lebanon after the August 4 port explosion in the capital. Bloomberg -
Emmanuel Macron plants a cedar tree alongside members of the NGO Jouzour Loubnan during a ceremony marking Lebanon's centenary in Jaj Cedar Reserve Forest, north-east of Beirut, on September 1, 2020. AFP -
French President Emmanuel Macron hugs a blast victim while attending a ceremony to mark Lebanon's centenary in Jaj Cedars Reserve Forest on September 1, 2020. AFP -
French President Emmanuel Macron meets former Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri at the Pine Residence, the official residence of the French ambassador to Lebanon, in Beirut on August 31, 2020. Reuters -
France's president with his Lebanese counterpart Michel Aoun at the Presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, on September 1, 2020. AFP -
French President Emmanuel Macron meets Lebanese Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai at the Pine Residence in Beirut. Bkerki Press Office / AFP -
President Emmanuel Macron speak with speaks with Arnaud Tranchant, commander of the French helicopter carrier Tonnerre, off the port of Beirut on September 1, 2020. AFP -
French jets perform a flypast over Beirut during Lebanon's centenary celebrations on September 1, 2020. Bloomberg -
French President Emmanuel Macron meets UN representatives and NGOs at Beirut port. AFP -
Emmanuel Macron gestures toward a board as he meets the military mobilised to help to rebuild the Beirut port. via AP -
Emmanuel Macron speaks to the media outside the French ambassador's residence in Beirut. Bloomberg -
The French president poses for selfies after a news conference at the Pine Residence in Beirut on September 1, 2020. AFP -
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks to a patient during a visit to Rafik Hariri University Hospital in Beirut with French Health Minister Olivier Veran, right, on September 1, 2020. AFP
There certainly seems to be a difference in their respective approaches to dealing with Hezbollah. The French have avoided implicating the group for its destructive role in Lebanon's society and politics. They have even granted it legitimacy, going by Mr Macron’s recent statements. This position stands in sharp contrast to Washington's designation of Hezbollah as a terror group. The Americans are not entirely convinced that the French tactic of taking all the Lebanese political forces along with it will lead to much-needed reforms. Nonetheless, they will not come in their way.
They do agree on the need to exert pressure on the country's wider political class.
Both countries have made it clear that there would be no international or Arab aid at the level needed to rescue Lebanon unless radical reforms are undertaken to strengthen the state and make it more transparent and accountable to the people. These reforms would no doubt impact the domination of the elite, which explains its resistance against them.
A carrot-and-stick routine may be playing out in Lebanon, with Paris leading the efforts to pledge aid as Washington raises the threat of sanctions. Indeed, the US has hinted at the possibility of imposing sanctions in the coming week against powerful politicians who are allied to Hezbollah in government.
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A woman, draped in a black-striped Lebanese flag, looks at the site of the massive explosion at Beirut's port area, during a demonstration to mark one month since the cataclysmic August 4 explosion that killed 191 people, in the Lebanese capital Beirut. AFP -
A woman holds a noose as she observes a minute of silence to mark one month since the massive explosion at Beirut's port area. Reuters -
Families of Beirut port explosion victims carry their pictures during a minute of silence and prayer to mark one month of Beirut port explosion. EPA -
Families of Beirut port explosion victims carry their pictures during a minute of silence and prayer to mark one month of Beirut port explosion. EPA -
Protesters carry torches and hangman noose as they demand the punishment of those responsible for the port explosion during a moment of silence to mark one month of Beirut port explosion. EPA -
Firefighters hold a flag as they commemorate a month since Beirut's deadly explosion. Getty Images -
Protesters wave a Lebanese flag and hold nooses, which have become symbols of public anger against the Lebanese government, as they commemorate a month since the city's deadly explosion. Getty Images -
Protesters hold torches and nooses as they commemorate a month since the city's deadly explosion. Getty Images -
Paper lanterns in the shape of a Lebanese flag mark one month since the city's deadly explosion. Getty Images -
A woman sings on a pile of rubble near paper lanterns arranged in the shape of a Lebanese flag to mark one month since the city's deadly explosion. Getty Images -
Families of Beirut port explosion victims carry their pictures during a minute of silence and prayer to mark one month of Beirut port explosion. EPA
The carrot, however, may not be significant. It will certainly not come in the form of a $11 billion aid package that was pledged during the recent French-led Cedre donor conference. In fact, it is unlikely to exceed $3bn. Any rescue package worth its salt – including a bailout from the IMF, the US and Arab nations – will require Beirut to enact serious reforms. These include an overhaul of its mode of government and system of elections, and the creation of a long-term vision for the state. The production and storage of illegal arms to benefit Hezbollah and further Iran's interests will also need addressing.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister-designate Mustapha Adib will no doubt be under immense pressure to make a start on some of these reforms. He has promised to put together a line-up of technocrats – rather than the usual yes-men from the political class.
Mr Adib’s challenges are somewhat comparable to the ones Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi is facing at the moment. Lebanon and Iraq are both in dire need to exert their sovereignty and neutrality, as regional powers battle each other for control over these two countries. Sovereignty means that the state has the sole authority over a country's territory, but this requires the top leaders of both Lebanon and Iraq to rise to the challenge.
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Iraqi protesters run for cover as they clash with security forces on Al Jumhuriyah in the capital Baghdad, following an anti-government demonstration. AFP -
Demonstrators gesture as they take part in the ongoing anti-government protests after newly-appointed Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi called for the release of all detained protesters, at Al Jumhuriya bridge in Baghdad, Iraq. REUTERS -
Demonstrators gesture as they take part in the ongoing anti-government protests after newly-appointed Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi called for the release of all deatined protesters, at Al Jumhuriya bridge in Baghdad, Iraq. REUTERS -
Demonstrators gesture as they take part in the ongoing anti-government protests after newly-appointed Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi called for the release of all detained protesters, at Al Jumhuriya bridge in Baghdad, Iraq. REUTERS -
An Iraqi protester holds a smoke grenade fired by security forces amid clashes following an anti-government demonstration in Iraq's southern city of Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province. AFP -
Iraqi protesters gather to block a street during an anti-government demonstration in Iraq's southern city of Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province. AFP -
Iraqi protesters hurl stones at security forces amid clashes following an anti-government demonstration in Iraq's southern city of Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province. AFP -
An Iraqi protester looks on as others wave national flags during an anti-government demonstration on Al Jumhuriyah bridge in the capital Baghdad. AFP -
Iraqi protesters wave national flags during an anti-government demonstration on Al Jumhuriyah bridge in the capital Baghdad. AFP -
Iraqi protesters gather amid clashes with security forces following an anti-government demonstration in Iraq's southern city of Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province. AFP -
Iraqi protesters affected by smoke grenades receive help amid clashes with security forces following an anti-government demonstration in Iraq's southern city of Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province. AFP -
Iraqi protesters flee smoke grenades fired by security forces amid clashes following an anti-government demonstration in Iraq's southern city of Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province. AFP -
An Iraqi demonstrator tries to smash a concrete wall during ongoing anti-government protests after newly-appointed Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi called for the release of all detained protesters, at Jumhuriya bridge in Baghdad, Iraq. REUTERS
Mr Macron, who visited Iraq shortly after leaving Lebanon, emphasised the issue of sovereignty during his meeting with Mr Al Kadhimi. Interestingly, rather than targeting Iran, the French President spoke to Turkish incursions as part of Ankara's military operations against the Kurdistan Workers' Party, members of which are said to be hiding in Iraqi territory.
France has been keen for the US to rein in Turkey over its actions in Iraq, Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean, where it is in a resource conflict with Greece. Washington's priority, however, is to preserve Turkey’s Nato membership in order to yank it out of Russia's embrace.
There has also been a gap in their strategies to deal with Iran, although that gap has reduced in recent times. Much like the Americans have done over the past three years to rein in Iran's expansionist activities in the region, French diplomats are also beginning to raise the threat of sanctions against Tehran and its partners and allies. It has to be said that, while American sanctions have a significant impact on the economies of state and non-state actors, French punitive measures are usually more symbolic than anything else.
Paris is, therefore, bent on pursuing two-track diplomacy with Tehran – an idea that Washington has chosen to be open-minded about.
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Iraqi protesters run for cover as they clash with security forces on Al Jumhuriyah in the capital Baghdad, following an anti-government demonstration. AFP -
Demonstrators gesture as they take part in the ongoing anti-government protests after newly-appointed Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi called for the release of all detained protesters, at Al Jumhuriya bridge in Baghdad, Iraq. REUTERS -
Demonstrators gesture as they take part in the ongoing anti-government protests after newly-appointed Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi called for the release of all deatined protesters, at Al Jumhuriya bridge in Baghdad, Iraq. REUTERS -
Demonstrators gesture as they take part in the ongoing anti-government protests after newly-appointed Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi called for the release of all detained protesters, at Al Jumhuriya bridge in Baghdad, Iraq. REUTERS -
An Iraqi protester holds a smoke grenade fired by security forces amid clashes following an anti-government demonstration in Iraq's southern city of Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province. AFP -
Iraqi protesters gather to block a street during an anti-government demonstration in Iraq's southern city of Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province. AFP -
Iraqi protesters hurl stones at security forces amid clashes following an anti-government demonstration in Iraq's southern city of Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province. AFP -
An Iraqi protester looks on as others wave national flags during an anti-government demonstration on Al Jumhuriyah bridge in the capital Baghdad. AFP -
Iraqi protesters wave national flags during an anti-government demonstration on Al Jumhuriyah bridge in the capital Baghdad. AFP -
Iraqi protesters gather amid clashes with security forces following an anti-government demonstration in Iraq's southern city of Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province. AFP -
Iraqi protesters affected by smoke grenades receive help amid clashes with security forces following an anti-government demonstration in Iraq's southern city of Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province. AFP -
Iraqi protesters flee smoke grenades fired by security forces amid clashes following an anti-government demonstration in Iraq's southern city of Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar province. AFP -
An Iraqi demonstrator tries to smash a concrete wall during ongoing anti-government protests after newly-appointed Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi called for the release of all detained protesters, at Jumhuriya bridge in Baghdad, Iraq. REUTERS
Today, France has an opportunity to leave a distinguished mark in the Middle East. But for this to happen, it needs to be courageous and tough, rather than go down the road of appeasement. It has no doubt made some bold and important policy proposals to the Lebanese politicians, such as imposing a transparent and neutral tendering process for the port’s reconstruction, and addressing the allegations of corruption surrounding the Selaata power plant project – as if to state that the time of one party’s domination over Lebanon’s energy sector is over.
And yet, Mr Macron’s strong words need to be backed by a rigorous sanctions regime, if necessary, as well as strong support from the European Union. Most importantly, his government simply needs to stand up to Tehran’s regional agenda. It must avoid repeating the mistake the West and Russia made by overlooking Iran’s expansionist activities while securing the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute
