So far the British effort to leave the European Union has resembled a danse macabre, but to avoid a harmful fall out for all sides the effort must take on a more collaborative tone.
There is a year to go until the break takes place in March next year. While it is unlikely that Britain's stern prime minister Theresa May would take inspiration from the frivolous dance song The Hokey Cokey that is exactly the spirit of Brexit she needs.
After famously declaring Brexit means Brexit, Mrs May staked her entire credibility on delivering a clean break between the UK and the EU. She travelled to the four corners of Britain last week, assuring all the constituent nations that London could make the process work in their interests.
It will be a difficult challenge. Within Britain there is a logic in Brexit becoming a centrifugal force that reverses the trend of decentralisation begun under Tony Blair. More obviously the country will need a new defining ethos, one that redefines Britishness.
With the issue of the Irish border looming so large over trade talks with the EU, it is also important to realise the bigger issue is the competition between Britishness and Irishness there. This will intensify within Northern Ireland. How that drama plays out will occupy policy makers for years to come.
In the next few weeks, Brexit trade talks will be at the forefront. There are only a few months to set up the future relationship as the shape of the deal must be clear by the end of June.
So why do I recommend Hokey Cokey? Because the key part of the song involves in steps and out steps.
In three big areas Mrs May must find a way to balance the departure with continued involvement: trade, security and finance.
Trade in goods between Britain and Europe moves freely under the single market. Important sectors such as manufacturers and agricultural businesses worry that a new trading regime will impose extra hurdles. In an era of just-in-time delivery, huge queues at ports represents a step backwards.
Component producers worry that the Jenga-like European manufacturing model could be hit by a Brexit-sized black hole when a transition period ends in 2020.
When it comes to security, Britain has made a big and generous offer. London wants to maintain a seamless fabric of co-operation with the Europeans. This not only means defence systems but also criminal policing and extradition activity plus also intelligence sharing.
Last week saw a set of anniversaries of the Brussels and Westminster terror attacks. The conversations, plot development and attack co-ordination within ISIL takes place across borders. So must work to defend the continent.
The week also saw European states join in a concerted move to expel Russian intelligence officials. This demonstrated the poisoning of a Russian man and his daughter in the English city of Salisbury was a challenge to all European states no matter what political disputes have raged.
But there will be points of departure. One important driver of the Brexit vote was a rejection of European efforts to establish an EU defence force. This so-called European army is a long way off but the remaining states will get more integrated in defence. Britain will necessarily be outside looking in. Massive joint ventures, such as Airbus and the Typhoon fighter jets, seem certain to be the last of their kind. Britain faces ejection from Europe's space race.
Banking is the other big area where collusion must continue. The eurozone is a far bigger area than the UK economy but it cannot simply replicate the London market overnight. London stands apart for a reason and the eurozone would be risking its own funding crisis by building barriers to the world’s largest financial market.
Projections on the loss of jobs in the financial markets as a result of Brexit now more often claim these jobs will migrate to the other global financial centres – New York, Hong Kong – than to the European contenders like Paris and Frankfurt.
When Joseph Nye came up with the concept of soft power, he defined it as a country’s ability to attract the interest of others. That is also the special magic of the City of London. It may be intangible but Mrs May must find a way to preserve this magnetic draw through the Brexit period.
The Europeans may now gamble that the eurozone can compensate and overcome loss of access (or simply more cumbersome ties) to London financial pools. It would be far more sensible to allow a rebalancing over time.
With the spirit of togetherness that underlies the Hokey Cokey, an ice-breaker on cruise ships for decades, the Brexit two-step can be done.
Even if, to the onlooker, the talks still won’t be pretty.
MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
2.0
Director: S Shankar
Producer: Lyca Productions; presented by Dharma Films
Cast: Rajnikanth, Akshay Kumar, Amy Jackson, Sudhanshu Pandey
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
England XI for second Test
Rory Burns, Keaton Jennings, Ben Stokes, Joe Root (c), Jos Buttler, Moeen Ali, Ben Foakes (wk), Sam Curran, Adil Rashid, Jack Leach, James Anderson
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
2024%20Dubai%20Marathon%20Results
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Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
The biog
Date of birth: 27 May, 1995
Place of birth: Dubai, UAE
Status: Single
School: Al Ittihad private school in Al Mamzar
University: University of Sharjah
Degree: Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Hobby: I enjoy travelling a lot, not just for fun, but I like to cross things off my bucket list and the map and do something there like a 'green project'.
Fixtures (all in UAE time)
Friday
Everton v Burnley 11pm
Saturday
Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur 3.30pm
West Ham United v Southampton 6pm
Wolves v Fulham 6pm
Cardiff City v Crystal Palace 8.30pm
Newcastle United v Liverpool 10.45pm
Sunday
Chelsea v Watford 5pm
Huddersfield v Manchester United 5pm
Arsenal v Brighton 7.30pm
Monday
Manchester City v Leicester City 11pm
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
How to play the stock market recovery in 2021?
If you are looking to build your long-term wealth in 2021 and beyond, the stock market is still the best place to do it as equities powered on despite the pandemic.
Investing in individual stocks is not for everyone and most private investors should stick to mutual funds and ETFs, but there are some thrilling opportunities for those who understand the risks.
Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the 20 best-performing US and European stocks have delivered an average return year-to-date of 148 per cent, measured in local currency terms.
Online marketplace Etsy was the best performer with a return of 330.6 per cent, followed by communications software company Sinch (315.4 per cent), online supermarket HelloFresh (232.8 per cent) and fuel cells specialist NEL (191.7 per cent).
Mr Garnry says digital companies benefited from the lockdown, while green energy firms flew as efforts to combat climate change were ramped up, helped in part by the European Union’s green deal.
Electric car company Tesla would be on the list if it had been part of the S&P 500 Index, but it only joined on December 21. “Tesla has become one of the most valuable companies in the world this year as demand for electric vehicles has grown dramatically,” Mr Garnry says.
By contrast, the 20 worst-performing European stocks fell 54 per cent on average, with European banks hit by the economic fallout from the pandemic, while cruise liners and airline stocks suffered due to travel restrictions.
As demand for energy fell, the oil and gas industry had a tough year, too.
Mr Garnry says the biggest story this year was the “absolute crunch” in so-called value stocks, companies that trade at low valuations compared to their earnings and growth potential.
He says they are “heavily tilted towards financials, miners, energy, utilities and industrials, which have all been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic”. “The last year saw these cheap stocks become cheaper and expensive stocks have become more expensive.”
This has triggered excited talk about the “great value rotation” but Mr Garnry remains sceptical. “We need to see a breakout of interest rates combined with higher inflation before we join the crowd.”
Always remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Last year’s winners often turn out to be this year’s losers, and vice-versa.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Temple numbers
Expected completion: 2022
Height: 24 meters
Ground floor banquet hall: 370 square metres to accommodate about 750 people
Ground floor multipurpose hall: 92 square metres for up to 200 people
First floor main Prayer Hall: 465 square metres to hold 1,500 people at a time
First floor terrace areas: 2,30 square metres
Temple will be spread over 6,900 square metres
Structure includes two basements, ground and first floor
ENGLAND SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Jack Butland, Jordan Pickford, Nick Pope
Defenders: John Stones, Harry Maguire, Phil Jones, Kyle Walker, Kieran Trippier, Gary Cahill, Ashley Young, Danny Rose, Trent Alexander-Arnold
Midfielders: Eric Dier, Jordan Henderson, Dele Alli, Jesse Lingard, Raheem Sterling, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Fabian Delph
Forwards: Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy, Marcus Rashford, Danny Welbeck
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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The currency conundrum
Russ Mould, investment director at online trading platform AJ Bell, says almost every major currency has challenges right now. “The US has a huge budget deficit, the euro faces political friction and poor growth, sterling is bogged down by Brexit, China’s renminbi is hit by debt fears while slowing Chinese growth is hurting commodity exporters like Australia and Canada.”
Most countries now actively want a weak currency to make their exports more competitive. “China seems happy to let the renminbi drift lower, the Swiss are still running quantitative easing at full tilt and central bankers everywhere are actively talking down their currencies or offering only limited support," says Mr Mould.
This is a race to the bottom, and everybody wants to be a winner.