This year’s US presidential election may be the first in which the issues involving Palestinian rights may affect the outcome.
Over the past several decades, elections have been fought over a range of domestic and foreign policy concerns – from civil rights and abortion to the wars in Vietnam and Iraq. In most instances, these were partisan “wedge” issues – that is, issues that were used by one party against the other. The growing concern for Palestinian rights has become a “wedge issue“ that is dividing the governing Democratic Party.
Whether deliberate or not, Democrats made a fateful choice over the past several decades. They abandoned the white working class in favour of courting what has come to be known as the “Obama voters”. They were young voters, voters of colour (black, Latino and Asian), and educated women voters. The problem is that having lost a sizable percentage of white working-class voters, Democrats can’t afford to lose the substantial majorities of voters from the Obama coalition they need to win national elections.
Recent polls, such as the one conducted in December by The New York Times, show that young voters are deeply disappointed with President Joe Biden’s handling of the war on Gaza. They demonstrate greater solidarity with Palestinians than with Israelis and, in part, motivated by their dissatisfaction, they appear less inclined to support him in this year’s election.
Given the continuing deadly violence in Gaza and the start of the election year, this past week my Arab American Institute co-sponsored a summit on Gaza together with the Rainbow Push Coalition, founded by Rev Jesse Jackson, and other partners. In order to have a detailed look at how voters were thinking about the war, we commissioned a special nationwide poll of likely voters.
The caviler attitude of those who are guiding Mr Biden’s campaign is simplistic and deeply flawed
We learnt four central lessons: because of growing sympathy for Palestinians, voters want American policy to be more balanced and less supportive of Israel. Second, because of the toll the bombings have taken on Palestinian lives, voters want US military aid to Israel to be restricted and conditional. Third, voters want members of Congress to support a ceasefire and are less inclined to support candidates who oppose a ceasefire.
And finally, in almost every instance, the percentages of young voters and non-white voters who support a more balanced Middle East policy, conditioning aid to Israel and a ceasefire far exceed those of other groups of voters. And because these two groups are so important to their party’s chances in 2024, Democrats had better find ways to change direction and win them back.
The numbers speak for themselves.
American public opinion has shifted away from Israel as the invasion of Gaza continues. Forty-two per cent of voters now say they sympathise with both Israelis and Palestinians equally. While a higher percentage of Americans indicated sympathy towards Israelis alone rather than Palestinians alone, Palestinians have more support among voters who are young (34 per cent to 16 per cent) and people of colour (21 per cent to 17 per cent).
Since the start of the current violence in Gaza, sympathy for Palestinians has increased, especially among Democrats (23 per cent increased sympathy towards Palestinians versus 17 per cent towards Israelis), younger Americans (37 per cent increased sympathy towards Palestinians versus 27 per cent for Israelis), and people of colour (29 per cent increased sympathy towards Palestinians versus 13 per cent for Israelis).
At the same time, Americans are calling into question the Biden administration’s handling of the conflict.
Fifty per cent of Americans believe Mr Biden’s policy favours Israel. But when asked how his administration should conduct US policy, a plurality of respondents (42 per cent) say it should be balanced between Israeli and Palestinian needs. By a decisive two-to-one margin, voters say that instead of siding with Israel (a position held by only 26 per cent), the US should strive to be an honest broker between Israelis and Palestinians (a position held by 57 per cent).
This questioning of the administration’s one-sided support for Israel also has an impact on voters’ attitudes towards US military assistance to that state. By a two-to-one margin (51 per cent to 26 per cent), voters reject the notion that the US should give unrestricted military assistance to Israel as long as Israel is putting Palestinian civilian lives at risk.
By the same two-to-one margin, respondents said that they sided with those Democratic senators who objected to the President’s recent decision to bypass congressional oversight in sending weapons to Israel. A plurality of voters (41 per cent) now indicate that it is time to consider cutting or conditioning Israel’s annual $3.8 billion appropriation for military assistance.
American voters are more likely to vote for candidates that support a ceasefire. Respondents want a ceasefire and an end to the conflict. In responses to two separate questions, by a two-to-one margin, respondents indicated that they are more inclined to support a member of Congress who supports a ceasefire and that they are less willing to support those who oppose calls for it.
The bottom line is that Democrats should be hearing alarms going off as a result of the White House’s refusal to stop the way Israel is conducting this war or even consider supporting a ceasefire to end the killing. The result is that they are losing votes from groups that have formed their most loyal supporters.
The cavalier attitude of those who are guiding Mr Biden’s campaign is simplistic and deeply flawed. Betting on young and non-white voters drifting back to Mr Biden in November – on the assumption that they won’t want to see Donald Trump return to the White House – is demeaning to the feelings of these voters.
It’s also dangerous. As The New York Times poll demonstrates, almost one in five say they would prefer to vote for third-party candidates. The “political pros” in the White House need to consider this threat and not discount it as Democrats did in the 2000 and 2016 elections.
more from Janine di Giovanni
The%C2%A0specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204-cylinder%202.0L%20TSI%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20clutch%207-speed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20320HP%20%2F%20235kW%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20400Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20%2449%2C709%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Japan 30-10 Russia
Tries: Matsushima (3), Labuschange | Golosnitsky
Conversions: Tamura, Matsuda | Kushnarev
Penalties: Tamura (2) | Kushnarev
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
MATCH INFO
Uefa Nations League
League A, Group 4
Spain v England, 10.45pm (UAE)
Profile Periscope Media
Founder: Smeetha Ghosh, one co-founder (anonymous)
Launch year: 2020
Employees: four – plans to add another 10 by July 2021
Financing stage: $250,000 bootstrap funding, approaching VC firms this year
Investors: Co-founders
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Everton%20Fixtures
%3Cp%3EApril%2015%20-%20Chelsea%20(A)%3Cbr%3EApril%2021%20-%20N.%20Forest%20(H)%3Cbr%3EApril%2024%20-%20Liverpool%20(H)%3Cbr%3EApril%2027%20-%20Brentford%20(H)%3Cbr%3EMay%203%20-%20Luton%20Town%20(A)%3Cbr%3EMay%2011%20-%20Sheff%20Utd%20(H)%3Cbr%3EMay%2019%20-%20Arsenal%20(A)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
PETER%20PAN%20%26%20WENDY
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDavid%20Lowery%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Alexander%20Molony%2C%20Ever%20Anderson%2C%20Joshua%20Pickering%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
Tomb%20Raider%20I%E2%80%93III%20Remastered
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Aspyr%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Aspyr%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20Nintendo%20Switch%2C%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20series%20X%2FS%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
STAR%20WARS%20JEDI%3A%20SURVIVOR
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Respawn%20Entertainment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electronic%20Arts%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsoles%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PC%2C%20Playstation%205%2C%20Xbox%20Series%20X%20and%20S%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
UAE cricketers abroad
Sid Jhurani is not the first cricketer from the UAE to go to the UK to try his luck.
Rameez Shahzad Played alongside Ben Stokes and Liam Plunkett in Durham while he was studying there. He also played club cricket as an overseas professional, but his time in the UK stunted his UAE career. The batsman went a decade without playing for the national team.
Yodhin Punja The seam bowler was named in the UAE’s extended World Cup squad in 2015 despite being just 15 at the time. He made his senior UAE debut aged 16, and subsequently took up a scholarship at Claremont High School in the south of England.
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour