Policy paralysis in the West over the Iran nuclear talks

Demonstrators chant slogans during the March of Solidarity for Iran in Washington. AFP

Another group of demonstrators at the march. AFP

A protest in support of Iranian women in Barcelona. Reuters

Iranian citizens and locals joined in the Barcelona protest. Reuters

People attend a demonstration in solidarity with Mahsa Amini and other Iranian women in Castello Square, Turin. EPA

A person places a candle during the demonstration in Turin. EPA

A protester holds a pre-Islamic Revolution Iranian flag during a demonstration in Brussels in support of the Iranians fighting for their freedom. AFP

A protester wearing a top with a logo that reads 'No to an Islamic state" as she takes part in a rally in support of the Iranian people, in Brussels. AFP

People wave the Shah-era Iranian flag during a protest in Paris. AFP

A woman shows her true colours in the protest against the Iranian government, in Paris. AFP

A woman holds a flag, as people protest against the Iranian regime outside Iran's embassy in central London. Reuters

Supporters of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) carry placards and wave party flags in Beirut, during a protest against the death of Ms Amini. EPA

People demonstrate against the Iranian government outside the Houses of Parliament in London following the death of Amini. Reuters

A mural in Paris depicts women cutting their hair to show support for Iranian protesters. AP

People take part in a rally against the Iranian government in Vancouver, Canada, on Saturday. AP

Protesters take to the streets of Tehran. EPA

Iranian protesters run after clashing with with police. EPA

A protester shaves their head outside the Houses of Parliament in London. Reuters

Iranians living in Athens hold a protest in solidarity. AFP

People take part in a rally in The Hague. AFP

A woman cuts her hair during a demonstration in Santiago, Chile, by feminist groups and Iranian migrants in support of Iranian women following the death of Amini. AFP

Members of feminist groups and Iranian migrants during the protests in Santiago. AFP

Iranian activists shout slogans during a protest against the government in Tehran, in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. EPA

A protester holds a painted portrait of Mahsa Amini in Berlin, Germany. EPA

A protester shows red paint on her face, resembling blood splatters and bloody handprints next to the national Iranian emblem, during a rally in Berlin. EPA

Iranian protesters shout slogan during a protest in Istanbul, Turkey. EPA

A woman holds a sign during a protest against the Iranian government, in front of the country's embassy in Madrid, Spain. The protests were triggered by the death of a young Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, in police custody. Reuters

A woman cuts her hair during the protest in front of the Iranian embassy in Madrid. Reuters

Israelis show their support for women in Iran as they hold up placards of Amini during a protest in Jerusalem. EPA

Amini, 22, was arrested in Tehran on September 13, 2022, by the morality police. She fell into a coma while in police custody and was declared dead on September 16. EPA

People walk by graffiti in support of the protests triggered by Amini's death, in Jerusalem. EPA

A protest in Nantes, western France, after the death of Amini in Iranian police custody. AFP

Women gather for a demonstration in Barcelona, Spain. AFP

Demonstrators in Nantes. Amini's death has sparked a global protest movement. AFP

Women protest outside the town hall in in Montpellier, southern France. AFP

A woman at a protest in Catalunya Square, Barcelona. Reuters

Campaigners and football fans protest at a Champions League match between Porto and Bayer Leverkusen at the Dragao stadium in Portugal. EPA

People hold placards during a demonstration in solidarity with the Iranian people near the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France. EPA

An Iranian woman living in Turkey with 'Freedom' written on her forehead takes part in a protest near the Iranian consulate in Istanbul. Reuters

In Barcelona, protesters take part in a demonstration in support of Iranian women. AFP

A Lebanese activist takes part in a protest in Beirut, triggered by the death of Amini, 22. AP

A Turkish protester takes off her head scarf while giving a performance in Instanbul during a protest against Iran over Amini's death. Getty

A woman in Istanbul cuts her hair during a protest against Iran. Getty

A Lebanese activist holds a poster depicting Amini during a protest in Beirut organised by feminist groups in support of women protesters in Iran. EPA

Demonstrators in Los Angeles, California, hold the Iranian flag during a protest against the government in Tehran. AFP

Demonstrators hold placards in Mexico City during a protest against Iran. Reuters

People demonstrate in Montreal, Canada, during a protest triggered by Amini's death. AFP

Iranian Americans participate in a rally in central Los Angeles, in solidarity with women in Iran. AP

Demonstrators march during a protest in Los Angeles, California. AFP

A woman with the colours of the Iranian flag painted on her face participates in a rally as thousands demonstrate in support of Iranian women in Los Angeles. EPA

Australians protest over Amini's death in Melbourne. EPA

Police block protesters from entering Iran's embassy in Oslo, Norway. EPA

Demonstrators in front of the European headquarters of the UN in Geneva, Switzerland, during a rally against Iran. EPA

A candlelight vigil for Amini in Los Angeles. AFP

Afghan women hold placards as they take part in a protest in front of the Iranian embassy in Kabul. AFP

Protestors take part in a rally outside the Iranian consulate in Istanbul. AFP

An Iranian woman shows a lock of hair she cut off during a protest outside the Iranian consulate in Istanbul. EPA

Demonstrators outside the Iranian consulate in Istanbul. Getty

Iranian Americans rally on Capitol Hill in Washington to show support for protesters in Iran. AFP

Protesters on Capitol Hill hold a sign condemning the crackdown by Tehran. AFP

German demonstrators gather in Berlin after the death of Amini in Iranian police custody. AP

A protester cries during a rally in Berlin. Reuters

A demonstration in Madrid, Spain. Thousands have gathered in cities across Europe to support protests in Iran. AP

Demonstrators gather outside the Iranian embassy in Madrid. Reuters

People take part in a protest in Lausanne, Switzerland. EPA

Protesters hold signs featuring images of Amini during the protest in the western Swiss city. EPA

Demonstrators in front of the Iranian embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina. EPA

An activist outside the Iranian embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina, with a sign that reads 'Justice for Mahsa Amini'. AFP

A demonstration against violence in Iran is held in Quito, Ecuador. The Iranian community in Ecuador protested outside the Iranian embassy. EPA

Protesters at a demonstration outside the Iranian embassy in Quito, Ecuador. EPA

With a trip to Asia last week, UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly made a commitment to the country’s strategic tilt to the Indo-Pacific.

On his travels, he may have had time to look out the window and reflect on the current state of western policy towards Iran. It is an area where he now has some experience, something that will be increasingly useful in these days of crisis on Iran’s streets, as well as the corridors of power.

The sorry state of western thinking and diplomacy on Iran has rarely been more dangerously exposed. This is all the more true as the current impasse has crept up on policymakers with few having a clue what to do next.

Mr Cleverly knows in his bones that Iran is an important challenge.

Earlier this year, the former Conservative party chairman was promoted within the foreign office to deputy foreign secretary and Europe minister. In a role previous to that, he had handled the Middle East and North Africa brief. He took the Iran portfolio with him in a move that triggered a major internal reshuffle, something that insiders say has harmed Britain's long-standing Mena policy and the country’s diplomatic impact on the wider region.

Be that as it may, the decision showed the priority that Mr Cleverly placed on managing the Iran portfolio.

At the time, Mr Cleverly, a junior minister under then foreign secretary Liz Truss, was more regularly travelling to Vienna than the Middle East. Flitting across the lobby of the Palais Coburg hotel through epic rounds of grand diplomacy on the resurrection of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action required commitment and raw negotiating skill.

By all accounts, the deal was done in Vienna at least once. At the time of the first of Mr Cleverly’s promotions this year (in the second, he became Foreign Secretary when Ms Truss became Prime Minister last month), it seemed that keeping the portfolio was all about an experienced hand overseeing the sealing of the deal.

It was not to be, and unfortunately, the cloud over the JCPOA has turned dark. From a western point of view, this diplomatic instrument was the only game in town on Iran. Quite how to recalibrate is now the elephant in the room for US and European officials, in particular.

The word is that hardliners in Iran are using the demonstrations that are racking the country, and causing new instability in Iraq, to urge the final repudiation of the 2015 deal by Iran. Again, this is rumoured manoeuvring but it is ominous nonetheless.

The death in northern Iran of Mahsa Amini, 22, who was arrested by police for allegedly not complying with strict dress codes, has seen protests well up on a scale not seen for 12 years. The generational aspect of the confrontations between the authorities and demonstrators gives an extra dimension to the events.

There have been some moves, particularly by the US administration, to acknowledge the people who are out on the streets. European governments have offered statements that show sympathy or support to those who are making demands on the government. The German, British and Norwegian ambassadors protested against various aspects of policies or providing a base for what Tehran terms hostile media.

British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly speaks while US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken looks on during a Security Council meeting in New York last month. AFP

It is something of an indictment of the UK that, just days later, the BBC announced it was shutting radio services of BBC Arabic and Persian. As the German MP Nils Schmid noted at an event in London last week, the strength of broadcasting services is something that matters in diplomacy. Mr Schmid noted that Russia’s RT news channel, which is Iran-aligned, is very strong in central Iraq, something that 20 years ago could have been said about the BBC radio feed.

As Ian Bond, foreign policy director of the UK think tank Centre for European Reform, noted in tweeted reaction to the BBC job cuts of 380 people, an important element of London’s soft power was being surgically removed. The writer Helene von Bismarck agreed, though both bemoaned the impact from a Eurocentric perspective. Mr Bond separately published a short note on Ms Truss's foreign policy challenges that did not even mention Iran.

Mr Cleverly appears to know better than this and, while new to the job, must know it is pressing that he get a grip on events. He is not alone. The other European foreign ministers and the US State Department are similarly challenged.

It is clear from the travels of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi over the summer and the readouts of the meetings he has held, that Tehran has turned to the East in its international strategy. Perhaps the events surrounding the war in Ukraine accelerated a trend that would not have otherwise surfaced to derail the JCPOA.

It is debatable what tools western countries can employ at this juncture to turn around the decline in influence that has occurred. But there is all the more reason to reshape a strategy that can be resilient and useful to the politicians and diplomats in charge of policy.

History shows there is no alternative to engagement on this vital issue. A good start would be to look again at the BBC decision to give time for a diplomatic recalibration to be thought through.