With all the indications suggesting the lifting of sanctions against Iran has not decreased its perfidious meddling in the region, the burgeoning rapprochement between Turkey and the Gulf states could hardly have occurred at a better time. Relations between Turkey and most of the Gulf Cooperation Council members had been strained since Ankara abandoned its "zero problems with neighbours" policy in favour of supporting Islamist parties in Egypt and elsewhere during the Arab Spring.
It is no secret that with the United States decreasing its involvement in the Gulf, a key emphasis of the GCC foreign policy has been to establish a counterweight against Iran’s mendacious interference. The benefits to the Gulf states of a strong alliance between Saudi Arabia and Egypt – the richest and most populous Arab countries respectively – are obvious. To have Turkey on board will be a significant boost to that strategy.
Ultimately, countries will act in their own interests. It is to Iran’s benefit for the Arab countries to be either under its influence or so unstable as to be dysfunctional. Syria is a prime example of the first category, which is why Tehran has prevented the Assad regime from falling. In the latter category, Tehran’s agenda is the main cause of Lebanon’s political paralysis and contributed to the Houthi takeover in Yemen.
The GCC countries’ self-interest is equally clear, although far more positive in nature: we want a region of peace and prosperity instead of one wracked by conflict, so that ordinary citizens can get ahead with their lives and contribute to their communities.
The question to ask is how Ankara assesses its self-interest. There is no question that Turkey suffered from a degree of overreach during the Arab Spring and has been paying a price for that since. It too will find benefits in helping curtail Iran’s attempt to control or destabilise the region, particularly since Turkey has borne a disproportionate effect of the Syrian refugee crisis and sees a clear strategic threat in the empowerment of Kurdish groups as part of the West’s fight against ISIL.
Alliances always work best when all members reap the benefits and there is a compelling case for a warming of relations between Ankara and the GCC, particularly since the original cause of ire has receded and a pressing new threat needs to be combated.
