A family feud looms large over Iran's political future

Maha Samara reviews trends in the forthcoming Iranian elections set to take place later this month

Former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani waves to media as he registers his candidacy for the upcoming presidential election. Ebrahim Noroozi / AP Photo

Campaigning is in full swing for Iran’s February 26 elections for both the parliament and the Council of Experts. They will be conducted amid the euphoria that has followed the nuclear deal with the West, the lifting of sanctions against Iran and the ending of its international isolation.

In a pre-emptive strike to control the results in both houses, the conservative Guardian Council has been exercising its constitutional right to screen applicants on the basis of their “guaranteed allegiance” to the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. More than 12,000 candidates applied, but the council rejected more than half of them, mostly moderates, liberals and independents.

Among those refused was Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, who is known as a moderate with close ties to president Hassan Rouhani and former president Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Denying Mr Khomeini the right to run has created uproar. Many have accused the supreme leader of being behind the decision. The justification given by the council was that Mr Khomeini does not have enough Islamic clerical knowledge. However, Mr Rafsanjani has pointed out that Mr Khomeini grew up in Jamran near his grandfather, who had nurtured his understanding of Islam from an early age.

Mr Rafsanjani described Mr Khomeini as the closest person to his grandfather in character, knowledge and wisdom.

Mr Khomeini, 43, is a well-known cleric in Qom and he maintains good and close relations with moderate clerics. He is also well known on university campuses among students and young faculty members. This has exposed him to criticism from the hawks of the regime.

Some observers attribute the dispute to envy, noting that Mr Khamenei lacks the charisma, and the theological and intellectual status of the father of the revolution.

Mr Khamenei is said to hate the Khomeini legacy and does not want to see a bright descendant carry on the family line.

Additionally, some sources have suggested Mr Khamenei is suffering from a terminal illness. He and his supporters are keen to ensure that they control the 88-member Council of Experts because it will elect his successor. The council also has the right to supervise the conduct of the supreme leader and dismiss him – although there is no precedent for an impeachment.

Mr Rouhani is held in high regard in Iran for his role in the nuclear deal. He objects to discrimination against candidates on the basis of their political leanings. He has said that there is no reason for elections if there is no competition.

But the election is not just about a tussle between conservatives and liberals. There is a struggle within the conservative camp between the hawks, who refuse to deal with the new dynamics of change to preserve their status and privileges, and the more moderate faction, who are open to the winds of change if they can handle matters on their terms.

Some right-wing mullahs favour economic reform while still preserving the state's Islamic ideology. The “soft” conservatives are speaking out openly for broader economic and political change, taking into account the aspirations of Iranian youth, who make up 65 per cent of the population.

Young people are demanding jobs, housing, good universities, travel opportunities and personal freedoms. Many people in the West, including US president Barack Obama, are banking on change in Iran.

They believe that the opportunity to trade with the West will lead to a moderation in Tehran’s domestic and foreign policies. There have been comparisons with Cuba, but the situation in Iran is different and more complex.

Change in Iran will only come slowly. Both houses of parliament are currently controlled by extreme right-wingers. We’ll have to wait until the elections are over to see if that changes.

Maha Samara is a journalist in Beirut