Hello from The National and welcome to the View from London – your weekly guide to the big stories from our London bureau
Yemen's fate
Stalemate takes many forms in the divided Yemen after years of war.The internationally recognised government is based in Aden while the Houthi regime, an international pariah, holds the capital Sanaa.
Things are changing as Aden-based forces move to establish control along the coast. Mohamed Sahimi, the Southern Transitional Council representative in the UK, has been talking to The National about his party stepping into a security vacuum to shore up the region.
"Armed militias had been enabled by northern government troops in Hadhramaut, including those associated with the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremist groups, including [Al Qaeda in the Arabian Penninsula]," he said.
"Across the south, the STC is leading on security responsibilities to protect our civilians and counter the threat from the Houthis in the north. This is fully in the interests of Yemen, the region and the West."
One demonstration of the push changing the dynamic is the position of the Muslim Brotherhood-aligned Al Islah Party, which was put on display in Chatham House on Tuesday.
Abdul-Razak Al Hijri, the acting secretary general, made an appearance in London where he pleaded for a negotiated way out of the sudden switch of control around Aden and the southern coastal provinces.
The STC says it is taking control of the provinces to fight smuggling and terrorist networks in south-east Yemen, which were feeding the Houthis, Aqap and Al Shabab in Somalia.
It has accused a branch of the Yemeni army in Hadhramaut, known as the First Military Region, of tolerating these smuggling networks. The First Military Region is reportedly loyal to the Islah party.
Yemeni supporters of STC leader Aidarous Al Zubaidi at a rally. AFP
Al Hijri said he met STC leaders recently and believes that a diplomatic solution is possible. “The STC has their project, which is the restoration of the southern state. We do not have a problem with this issue being discussed,” he said.
“We met with them recently. We told them, 'Let's first work to restore the state and let‘s all of us present our reservations and concerns, and each one of us can present the guarantees they believe will reassure the other actors'."
Al Islah also appears to essentially favour the status quo with the Houthi domination of northern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa. STC leader Aidarous Al Zubaidi has suggested a “serious campaign to free the north” of Yemen, which is under Houthi control, could be next.
Paramount's bid for Warner Brothers Discovery has sent the media and international investment community into a frenzy.
It’s not simply the size of the hostile takeover attempt at $108 billion for Warner, or WBD, that has caused excitement. It’s also the fact that three Gulf sovereign wealth funds have come together on the same mega-play. Abu Dhabi’s L’imad Holding Company, the Qatar Investment Authority and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund are jointly throwing their considerable weight behind the Paramount strike.
Chris Blackhurst writes on how a contribution of $24 billion to the offer led by David Ellison is potentially transformative. Mr Ellison controls Paramount and moved to hijack Netflix’s agreed rival approach for the Hollywood movie studio and owner of CNN, HBO and other media platforms.
The funds are determinedly pursuing policies of diversifying away from a historic concentration on oil and energy. They want to take their holdings and economies into new, digitally focused sectors. Media, sport, entertainment and tourism are key targets. Within that context, WBD is a glittering diamond.
Top-level Ukraine talks seem to have been non-stop for months. Europe has come under pressure from Washington to bring out concessions from Kyiv. The latest rounds this week have created optimism that a ceasefire may be imminent, although analysts suggest the main win is keeping the US on board.
This is because top US envoys went to Berlin on Monday to secure from Ukraine grudging acceptance that any deal would mean it could not join Nato. US President Donald Trump hailed potential progress from “very long and very good talks” with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Nato.
US envoy Steve Witkoff looks up to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Reuters
Military and diplomatic analysts continue to pour cold water on the initiative driven by Mr Trump. Experts have warned that this optimism is likely to be misplaced, with the harsh reality that Russia has little incentive to accept the peace terms.
Keir Giles, a senior fellow at Chatham House, suggested to us that the flurry of statements about ceasefires and peace support forces are all “hypothetical”, with scant connection to political reality.
Something must be done and both Mr Trump and Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, think a truce could happen before the end of the year.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
UK Innovator Founder Visa is aimed at those who can demonstrate relevant experience in business and sufficient investment funds to set up and scale up a new business in the UK. It offers permanent residence after three years.
Germany Investing or establishing a business in Germany offers you a residence permit, which eventually leads to citizenship. The investment must meet an economic need and you have to have lived in Germany for five years to become a citizen.
Italy The scheme is designed for foreign investors committed to making a significant contribution to the economy. Requires a minimum investment of €250,000 which can rise to €2 million.
Switzerland Residence Programme offers residence to applicants and their families through economic contributions. The applicant must agree to pay an annual lump sum in tax.
Canada Start-Up Visa Programme allows foreign entrepreneurs the opportunity to create a business in Canada and apply for permanent residence.
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Australia World Cup squad
Aaron Finch (capt), Usman Khawaja, David Warner, Steve Smith, Shaun Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis, Alex Carey, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Jhye Richardson, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Jason Behrendorff, Nathan Lyon, Adam Zampa
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
For the karak and Yoodo's house platter with includes eggs, balaleet, khamir and chebab bread.
Golden Dallah
For the cappuccino, luqaimat and aseeda.
Al Mrzab Restaurant
For the shrimp murabian and Kuwaiti options including Kuwaiti machboos with kebab and spicy sauce.
Al Derwaza
For the fish hubul, regag bread, biryani and special seafood soup.
Monster Hunter: World
Capcom
PlayStation 4, Xbox One
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
All matches in Bulawayo Friday, Sept 26 – UAE won by 36 runs Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
MATCH INFO
Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)
Third-place play-off: New Zealand v Wales, Friday, 1pm
