Hello from The National and welcome to the View from London – your weekly guide to the big stories from our London bureau
Readiness tested
An estimated 250-plus incidents of state sabotage were reported in the UK last year. According to a new report from The Soufan Centre, this represents just 5 per cent of the plots worked on by the Security Service. Thus the report on Tuesday concluded that the country has an "iceberg problem" of resilience in a new era of state-on-state warfare.
It was perfect timing for the launch of a new resilience initiative by leading figures, including one of the authors of the recent UK Defence Review, Gen Richard Barrons.
A poll by Public First found that 40 per cent of the British public believe war involving the UK is likely within the next five years, and 55 per cent believe the UK is poorly prepared to defend itself.
That's particularly the case as 57 per cent see the traditional first ally of the UK to be a threat. I mean, of course, the US.
The context of this polling is the Iran war, but the immediate backdrop is the attack on Jewish community ambulances in north London at the start of the week.
For a sense of how unsettling this incident was and where the investigation could lead, read the words of the lead investigator, Assistant Commissioner Laurence Taylor. He said the number of national security cases involving activity by hostile states, including Iran, increased 50 per cent in the six months to the end of December last year. "That’s on the back of a five-fold increase over the last four or five years. It is a significant part of our case load,” he said.
One of the lines of inquiry is that Iran directed the attack. It is using proxies drawn from low-level criminal communities to carry out low-cost operations against Jewish sites and gathering places around Europe.
Responsibility for the arson attack on ambulances run by a Jewish community group in London has been claimed by a new group linked to Iran. Harakat Ashab Al Yamin Al Islamiyya, or Ashab Al Yamin, which translates to the Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right Hand, is believed to be a front for an Iraqi pro-Iranian militia.
In an example of how Iran is contributing to the hybrid attack strategies facing Europe, researchers and officials warn that there is a distinction between those plotting the attacks and those carrying them out.
Dutch think tank the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism cautioned on Monday that the rise of the group's online activity is in parallel with so-called doppelganger campaigns in other state-sponsored threats. The hybrid model of attack is designed to give direction from Tehran plausible deniability.
"There is no unequivocal proof of Iranian involvement in the series of attacks in Belgium, the Netherlands and the UK. The surrounding circumstances, particularly the suspicious online footprint, including dissemination through accounts closely linked to the IRGC ecosystem, strongly point towards Iranian-backed activity," wrote Julian Lanches, a research fellow at the ICCT.
Trump's minefield
There's a trickle of vessels emerging through the Strait of Hormuz as US President Donald Trump reportedly pursues diplomacy through Pakistan.
One ship in particular caught our eye because it is a so-called zombie vessel and is repeatedly being used to carry oil from inside the Gulf to tankers off Oman. The ship, "Jamal", broadcasts signals on identifier systems with the unique International Maritime Organisation registration number, name, call sign and flag of another vessel.
The IMO number is the primary identifier used by port state control authorities, sanctions-screening systems, insurance underwriters and compliance databases. By broadcasting a clean IMO number, the zombie vessel seeks to pass without giving its true identity.
Revolving door
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's announcement that the UK would send Rapid Sentry, an air defence system, to Kuwait, and Martlet missile interceptors to Bahrain, is typical of the flow of announcements of support from London to regional allies.
Armed forces chiefs had been proactive in meeting ambassadors and defence attaches from Gulf states, many of whom have regularly attended meetings at the Ministry of Defence in Whitehall.
Vernon Coaker, the Minister of State for Defence Diplomacy, says the UK is ready to engage further, while recognising his ministry could not provide everything. “We've done as much as we can, as quickly as we can”, he said.
Iran Congress
Instrumental in setting up an Iranian opposition conference this weekend in central London is London-based Majid Zamani.
The financier and publisher is listed as the event’s executive director, even as organisers say its sponsors will remain unidentified.
Mr Zamani was jailed in Iran for his support of the Green Movement in 2009. When the US-led nuclear deal with Iran came into effect in 2016, he set up his investment firm Kian Capital, hoping to tap into foreign investment in the country.
He left Iran during the renewed anti-government protests in 2022. The following year, a Tehran-based economic news website owned by a subsidiary of his Kian Capital was raided by the Iranian authorities, according to Iran International, an opposition TV channel with its headquarters in London.
Read more
The National produces newsletters across an array of subjects. You can sign up here. To receive The Editor's Briefing, our Editor-in-Chief's weekly newsletter that rounds up the top stories, sign up here.
