Work on a British intelligence dossier detailing a second Donald Trump presidency that plays out the impact of a return of the America First agenda is under way, led by the country's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6).
A former MI6 officer told The National that the government dossier would be a “nuanced” look at Mr Trump returning as president at a time when the Middle East influence exercised by the US and others has become “very messy”, something that is likely to persist during his administration.
“While a report is being compiled with SIS input, we don’t spy against the Americans because we are so interlinked,” the officer said. “There will be some SIS assessments but most will come from the Foreign Office.”
The dossier would likely be gaming the potential scenarios that might unfold
Alexander Lord
There are significant concerns for European security within the British security establishment, most immediately the strong possibility that Washington will withdraw military aid for Ukraine.
It is understood that the report has been compiled by MI6 officers alongside Foreign Office officials and other analysts including Defence Intelligence, a key lead on Ukraine.
World in turmoil
“If you look at the Middle East, Israel in particular, without US support in a second Trump presidency it is pretty much stuffed,” said retired Col Hamish de Bretton Gordon, a leading British military commentator.
“That is the biggest concern, that there’s nobody else who would come to the aid of Israel, so the Middle East, could get very, very messy.”
Trump’s Middle East
Middle East analysts warn that there is a fear that a Republican presidency would take more risks in pursuing its foreign policy goals than a Democratic one. “Some regional forces, particularly Iran, fear that the Trump administration would be more willing for military engagement and use of kinetic force in response to attacks by Iranian proxies,” said Noam Ostfeld, Middle East expert at Sibylline, a geopolitical risk advisory firm.
“This will challenge and likely limit Iranian activities in the region, impacting its plans to increase its regional influence.” There is also a concern that a Trump presidency could push Gulf powers to look more towards China and Asia for security and economic ties if America abandons its Middle East positions.
Mr Ostfeld also raised the possibility of America taking a back seat in Nato, leading to Turkey, an alliance member, having more influence given its Middle East links.
Trump accepts Republican presidential nomination – in pictures
He suggested that a big shift in policy regarding Gaza was unlikely, although under Mr Trump there might be “more allowance on military operations and possibly less tension about international humanitarian law”.
The former MI6 officer suggested that Mr Trump would give Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “even more free rein” than President Joe Biden as he was “more pro-Israeli and more anti-Iranian”.
“There's also a question about whether Trump could speak more directly to Netanyahu rather than chastising him and therefore maybe get concessions out of him,” he added.
Taking a measure
Closer to home, British officials are worried that support for Ukraine has peaked and could be scrapped under a Republican administration.
“Given that Donald Trump has from his own mouth cited some pretty major foreign policy impacts that could destabilise security of western security, Ukraine and the Middle East, China and Taiwan, it is not surprising urgent assessments are being made,” the former UK intelligence officer said.
He added that it would “negligent of the government” not to get the UK intelligence community drawing on all sources, including senior Republican figures who might have knowledge of Mr Trump’s plans.
As one of America’s closest allies, it is highly unlikely that MI6 would be actively “recruiting agents within the Trump circle” or using signals intelligence to gather information, he said.
“As Trump is so erratic and unpredictable they've got to plan for a worst-case scenario,” said Col de Bretton Gordon. “Trump is also very inward looking and everybody is deeply concerned that he’s saying he will cut Ukraine adrift.”
Nato and Ukraine
That eventuality is being examined after Mr Trump threatened to pull out of Nato during his first term arguing that countries were not paying enough for defence and America was picking up the tab.
BRussia’s invasion of Ukraine has dramatically changed the dynamic with Nato’s European countries now spending far more on defence.
Intelligence analysts are trying to understand the implications of Mr Trump’s promise to end the Ukraine war shortly after coming into office.
“The key implications which the UK is most concerned about is Trump's stance on Nato and as we don't know what Trump administration's foreign policy will be, the dossier would likely be gaming the potential scenarios that might unfold,” said Alexander Lord, lead Europe-Eurasia analyst for Sibylline.
He pointed to the Russian invasion “reinvigorating Nato as an alliance” which was very different to when Trump was last in power.
“But of course, US support for Ukraine is absolutely vital and if that was to dry up it would pose significant challenges to European and UK foreign policy for the next four years,” Mr Lord said.
If the Americans were to withdraw support Britain would have to take the lead in supporting Ukraine, but would likely find it more difficult to “take its allies with it” if its policy was contrary to that of Washington's, he added.
Britain’s Trump influence
Given Britain’s close alliance to America, that includes in-depth sharing of intelligence and strong relationships between the CIA and MI6, it should be able to exert more influence than most on its foreign policy.
While Mr Trump has a close affiliation to the UK, with his mother born in Scotland and several business interests in Britain, he was “politically and ideologically miles apart” from new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, said Col de Bretton Gordon.
“It's going to be more difficult for Starmer because I'm sure Trump views him as very left wing,” he added. “Hopefully, along with MI6 doing all their work, the new Labour team will take on board the report’s recommendations on how to best prepare for a second Trump presidency.”
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
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Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
AndhaDhun
Director: Sriram Raghavan
Producer: Matchbox Pictures, Viacom18
Cast: Ayushmann Khurrana, Tabu, Radhika Apte, Anil Dhawan
Rating: 3.5/5
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The five pillars of Islam
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Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
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Profile
Name: Carzaty
Founders: Marwan Chaar and Hassan Jaffar
Launched: 2017
Employees: 22
Based: Dubai and Muscat
Sector: Automobile retail
Funding to date: $5.5 million
A new relationship with the old country
Treaty of Friendship between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates
The United kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates; Considering that the United Arab Emirates has assumed full responsibility as a sovereign and independent State; Determined that the long-standing and traditional relations of close friendship and cooperation between their peoples shall continue; Desiring to give expression to this intention in the form of a Treaty Friendship; Have agreed as follows:
ARTICLE 1 The relations between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates shall be governed by a spirit of close friendship. In recognition of this, the Contracting Parties, conscious of their common interest in the peace and stability of the region, shall: (a) consult together on matters of mutual concern in time of need; (b) settle all their disputes by peaceful means in conformity with the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations.
ARTICLE 2 The Contracting Parties shall encourage education, scientific and cultural cooperation between the two States in accordance with arrangements to be agreed. Such arrangements shall cover among other things: (a) the promotion of mutual understanding of their respective cultures, civilisations and languages, the promotion of contacts among professional bodies, universities and cultural institutions; (c) the encouragement of technical, scientific and cultural exchanges.
ARTICLE 3 The Contracting Parties shall maintain the close relationship already existing between them in the field of trade and commerce. Representatives of the Contracting Parties shall meet from time to time to consider means by which such relations can be further developed and strengthened, including the possibility of concluding treaties or agreements on matters of mutual concern.
ARTICLE 4 This Treaty shall enter into force on today’s date and shall remain in force for a period of ten years. Unless twelve months before the expiry of the said period of ten years either Contracting Party shall have given notice to the other of its intention to terminate the Treaty, this Treaty shall remain in force thereafter until the expiry of twelve months from the date on which notice of such intention is given.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF the undersigned have signed this Treaty.
DONE in duplicate at Dubai the second day of December 1971AD, corresponding to the fifteenth day of Shawwal 1391H, in the English and Arabic languages, both texts being equally authoritative.
Signed
Geoffrey Arthur Sheikh Zayed
'Outclassed in Kuwait'
Taleb Alrefai,
HBKU Press
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Tom Fletcher on 'soft power'
Strait of Hormuz
Fujairah is a crucial hub for fuel storage and is just outside the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route linking Middle East oil producers to markets in Asia, Europe, North America and beyond.
The strait is 33 km wide at its narrowest point, but the shipping lane is just three km wide in either direction. Almost a fifth of oil consumed across the world passes through the strait.
Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait, a move that would risk inviting geopolitical and economic turmoil.
Last month, Iran issued a new warning that it would block the strait, if it was prevented from using the waterway following a US decision to end exemptions from sanctions for major Iranian oil importers.
Jeff Buckley: From Hallelujah To The Last Goodbye
By Dave Lory with Jim Irvin
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
