Work on a British intelligence dossier detailing a second Donald Trump presidency that plays out the impact of a return of the America First agenda is under way, led by the country's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6).
A former MI6 officer told The National that the government dossier would be a “nuanced” look at Mr Trump returning as president at a time when the Middle East influence exercised by the US and others has become “very messy”, something that is likely to persist during his administration.
“While a report is being compiled with SIS input, we don’t spy against the Americans because we are so interlinked,” the officer said. “There will be some SIS assessments but most will come from the Foreign Office.”
There are significant concerns for European security within the British security establishment, most immediately the strong possibility that Washington will withdraw military aid for Ukraine.
It is understood that the report has been compiled by MI6 officers alongside Foreign Office officials and other analysts including Defence Intelligence, a key lead on Ukraine.
World in turmoil
“If you look at the Middle East, Israel in particular, without US support in a second Trump presidency it is pretty much stuffed,” said retired Col Hamish de Bretton Gordon, a leading British military commentator.
“That is the biggest concern, that there’s nobody else who would come to the aid of Israel, so the Middle East, could get very, very messy.”
Trump’s Middle East
Middle East analysts warn that there is a fear that a Republican presidency would take more risks in pursuing its foreign policy goals than a Democratic one. “Some regional forces, particularly Iran, fear that the Trump administration would be more willing for military engagement and use of kinetic force in response to attacks by Iranian proxies,” said Noam Ostfeld, Middle East expert at Sibylline, a geopolitical risk advisory firm.
“This will challenge and likely limit Iranian activities in the region, impacting its plans to increase its regional influence.” There is also a concern that a Trump presidency could push Gulf powers to look more towards China and Asia for security and economic ties if America abandons its Middle East positions.
Mr Ostfeld also raised the possibility of America taking a back seat in Nato, leading to Turkey, an alliance member, having more influence given its Middle East links.
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He suggested that a big shift in policy regarding Gaza was unlikely, although under Mr Trump there might be “more allowance on military operations and possibly less tension about international humanitarian law”.
The former MI6 officer suggested that Mr Trump would give Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “even more free rein” than President Joe Biden as he was “more pro-Israeli and more anti-Iranian”.
“There's also a question about whether Trump could speak more directly to Netanyahu rather than chastising him and therefore maybe get concessions out of him,” he added.
Taking a measure
Closer to home, British officials are worried that support for Ukraine has peaked and could be scrapped under a Republican administration.
“Given that Donald Trump has from his own mouth cited some pretty major foreign policy impacts that could destabilise security of western security, Ukraine and the Middle East, China and Taiwan, it is not surprising urgent assessments are being made,” the former UK intelligence officer said.
He added that it would “negligent of the government” not to get the UK intelligence community drawing on all sources, including senior Republican figures who might have knowledge of Mr Trump’s plans.
As one of America’s closest allies, it is highly unlikely that MI6 would be actively “recruiting agents within the Trump circle” or using signals intelligence to gather information, he said.
“As Trump is so erratic and unpredictable they've got to plan for a worst-case scenario,” said Col de Bretton Gordon. “Trump is also very inward looking and everybody is deeply concerned that he’s saying he will cut Ukraine adrift.”
Nato and Ukraine
That eventuality is being examined after Mr Trump threatened to pull out of Nato during his first term arguing that countries were not paying enough for defence and America was picking up the tab.
BRussia’s invasion of Ukraine has dramatically changed the dynamic with Nato’s European countries now spending far more on defence.
Intelligence analysts are trying to understand the implications of Mr Trump’s promise to end the Ukraine war shortly after coming into office.
“The key implications which the UK is most concerned about is Trump's stance on Nato and as we don't know what Trump administration's foreign policy will be, the dossier would likely be gaming the potential scenarios that might unfold,” said Alexander Lord, lead Europe-Eurasia analyst for Sibylline.
He pointed to the Russian invasion “reinvigorating Nato as an alliance” which was very different to when Trump was last in power.
“But of course, US support for Ukraine is absolutely vital and if that was to dry up it would pose significant challenges to European and UK foreign policy for the next four years,” Mr Lord said.
If the Americans were to withdraw support Britain would have to take the lead in supporting Ukraine, but would likely find it more difficult to “take its allies with it” if its policy was contrary to that of Washington's, he added.
Britain’s Trump influence
Given Britain’s close alliance to America, that includes in-depth sharing of intelligence and strong relationships between the CIA and MI6, it should be able to exert more influence than most on its foreign policy.
While Mr Trump has a close affiliation to the UK, with his mother born in Scotland and several business interests in Britain, he was “politically and ideologically miles apart” from new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, said Col de Bretton Gordon.
“It's going to be more difficult for Starmer because I'm sure Trump views him as very left wing,” he added. “Hopefully, along with MI6 doing all their work, the new Labour team will take on board the report’s recommendations on how to best prepare for a second Trump presidency.”
