Work on a British intelligence dossier detailing a second Donald Trump presidency that plays out the impact of a return of the America First agenda is under way, led by the country's Secret Intelligence Service (MI6).
A former MI6 officer told The National that the government dossier would be a “nuanced” look at Mr Trump returning as president at a time when the Middle East influence exercised by the US and others has become “very messy”, something that is likely to persist during his administration.
“While a report is being compiled with SIS input, we don’t spy against the Americans because we are so interlinked,” the officer said. “There will be some SIS assessments but most will come from the Foreign Office.”
The dossier would likely be gaming the potential scenarios that might unfold
Alexander Lord
There are significant concerns for European security within the British security establishment, most immediately the strong possibility that Washington will withdraw military aid for Ukraine.
It is understood that the report has been compiled by MI6 officers alongside Foreign Office officials and other analysts including Defence Intelligence, a key lead on Ukraine.
World in turmoil
“If you look at the Middle East, Israel in particular, without US support in a second Trump presidency it is pretty much stuffed,” said retired Col Hamish de Bretton Gordon, a leading British military commentator.
“That is the biggest concern, that there’s nobody else who would come to the aid of Israel, so the Middle East, could get very, very messy.”
Trump’s Middle East
Middle East analysts warn that there is a fear that a Republican presidency would take more risks in pursuing its foreign policy goals than a Democratic one. “Some regional forces, particularly Iran, fear that the Trump administration would be more willing for military engagement and use of kinetic force in response to attacks by Iranian proxies,” said Noam Ostfeld, Middle East expert at Sibylline, a geopolitical risk advisory firm.
“This will challenge and likely limit Iranian activities in the region, impacting its plans to increase its regional influence.” There is also a concern that a Trump presidency could push Gulf powers to look more towards China and Asia for security and economic ties if America abandons its Middle East positions.
Mr Ostfeld also raised the possibility of America taking a back seat in Nato, leading to Turkey, an alliance member, having more influence given its Middle East links.
Trump accepts Republican presidential nomination – in pictures
He suggested that a big shift in policy regarding Gaza was unlikely, although under Mr Trump there might be “more allowance on military operations and possibly less tension about international humanitarian law”.
The former MI6 officer suggested that Mr Trump would give Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “even more free rein” than President Joe Biden as he was “more pro-Israeli and more anti-Iranian”.
“There's also a question about whether Trump could speak more directly to Netanyahu rather than chastising him and therefore maybe get concessions out of him,” he added.
Taking a measure
Closer to home, British officials are worried that support for Ukraine has peaked and could be scrapped under a Republican administration.
“Given that Donald Trump has from his own mouth cited some pretty major foreign policy impacts that could destabilise security of western security, Ukraine and the Middle East, China and Taiwan, it is not surprising urgent assessments are being made,” the former UK intelligence officer said.
He added that it would “negligent of the government” not to get the UK intelligence community drawing on all sources, including senior Republican figures who might have knowledge of Mr Trump’s plans.
As one of America’s closest allies, it is highly unlikely that MI6 would be actively “recruiting agents within the Trump circle” or using signals intelligence to gather information, he said.
“As Trump is so erratic and unpredictable they've got to plan for a worst-case scenario,” said Col de Bretton Gordon. “Trump is also very inward looking and everybody is deeply concerned that he’s saying he will cut Ukraine adrift.”
Nato and Ukraine
That eventuality is being examined after Mr Trump threatened to pull out of Nato during his first term arguing that countries were not paying enough for defence and America was picking up the tab.
BRussia’s invasion of Ukraine has dramatically changed the dynamic with Nato’s European countries now spending far more on defence.
Intelligence analysts are trying to understand the implications of Mr Trump’s promise to end the Ukraine war shortly after coming into office.
“The key implications which the UK is most concerned about is Trump's stance on Nato and as we don't know what Trump administration's foreign policy will be, the dossier would likely be gaming the potential scenarios that might unfold,” said Alexander Lord, lead Europe-Eurasia analyst for Sibylline.
He pointed to the Russian invasion “reinvigorating Nato as an alliance” which was very different to when Trump was last in power.
“But of course, US support for Ukraine is absolutely vital and if that was to dry up it would pose significant challenges to European and UK foreign policy for the next four years,” Mr Lord said.
If the Americans were to withdraw support Britain would have to take the lead in supporting Ukraine, but would likely find it more difficult to “take its allies with it” if its policy was contrary to that of Washington's, he added.
Britain’s Trump influence
Given Britain’s close alliance to America, that includes in-depth sharing of intelligence and strong relationships between the CIA and MI6, it should be able to exert more influence than most on its foreign policy.
While Mr Trump has a close affiliation to the UK, with his mother born in Scotland and several business interests in Britain, he was “politically and ideologically miles apart” from new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, said Col de Bretton Gordon.
“It's going to be more difficult for Starmer because I'm sure Trump views him as very left wing,” he added. “Hopefully, along with MI6 doing all their work, the new Labour team will take on board the report’s recommendations on how to best prepare for a second Trump presidency.”
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
How has net migration to UK changed?
The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.
It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.
The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.
The latest available figure of 728,000 for the 12 months to June 2024 suggests levels are starting to decrease.
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
RESULTS
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KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Healthcare spending to double to $2.2 trillion rupees
Launched a 641billion-rupee federal health scheme
Allotted 200 billion rupees for the recapitalisation of state-run banks
Around 1.75 trillion rupees allotted for privatisation and stake sales in state-owned assets
Emergency phone numbers in the UAE
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
UAE jiu-jitsu squad
Men: Hamad Nawad and Khalid Al Balushi (56kg), Omar Al Fadhli and Saeed Al Mazroui (62kg), Taleb Al Kirbi and Humaid Al Kaabi (69kg), Mohammed Al Qubaisi and Saud Al Hammadi (70kg), Khalfan Belhol and Mohammad Haitham Radhi (85kg), Faisal Al Ketbi and Zayed Al Kaabi (94kg)
Women: Wadima Al Yafei and Mahra Al Hanaei (49kg), Bashayer Al Matrooshi and Hessa Al Shamsi (62kg)
Abu%20Dhabi%E2%80%99s%20Racecard
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Reading List
Practitioners of mindful eating recommend the following books to get you started:
Savor: Mindful Eating, Mindful Life by Thich Nhat Hanh and Dr Lilian Cheung
How to Eat by Thich Nhat Hanh
The Mindful Diet by Dr Ruth Wolever
Mindful Eating by Dr Jan Bays
How to Raise a Mindful Eaterby Maryann Jacobsen
European arms
Known EU weapons transfers to Ukraine since the war began: Germany 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles. Luxembourg 100 NLAW anti-tank weapons, jeeps and 15 military tents as well as air transport capacity. Belgium 2,000 machine guns, 3,800 tons of fuel. Netherlands 200 Stinger missiles. Poland 100 mortars, 8 drones, Javelin anti-tank weapons, Grot assault rifles, munitions. Slovakia 12,000 pieces of artillery ammunition, 10 million litres of fuel, 2.4 million litres of aviation fuel and 2 Bozena de-mining systems. Estonia Javelin anti-tank weapons. Latvia Stinger surface to air missiles. Czech Republic machine guns, assault rifles, other light weapons and ammunition worth $8.57 million.
The Florida Project
Director: Sean Baker
Starring: Bria Vinaite, Brooklynn Prince, Willem Dafoe
Four stars
Afcon 2019
SEMI-FINALS
Senegal v Tunisia, 8pm
Algeria v Nigeria, 11pm
Matches are live on BeIN Sports
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
Five famous companies founded by teens
There are numerous success stories of teen businesses that were created in college dorm rooms and other modest circumstances. Below are some of the most recognisable names in the industry:
- Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg and his friends started Facebook when he was a 19-year-old Harvard undergraduate.
- Dell: When Michael Dell was an undergraduate student at Texas University in 1984, he started upgrading computers for profit. He starting working full-time on his business when he was 19. Eventually, his company became the Dell Computer Corporation and then Dell Inc.
- Subway: Fred DeLuca opened the first Subway restaurant when he was 17. In 1965, Mr DeLuca needed extra money for college, so he decided to open his own business. Peter Buck, a family friend, lent him $1,000 and together, they opened Pete’s Super Submarines. A few years later, the company was rebranded and called Subway.
- Mashable: In 2005, Pete Cashmore created Mashable in Scotland when he was a teenager. The site was then a technology blog. Over the next few decades, Mr Cashmore has turned Mashable into a global media company.
- Oculus VR: Palmer Luckey founded Oculus VR in June 2012, when he was 19. In August that year, Oculus launched its Kickstarter campaign and raised more than $1 million in three days. Facebook bought Oculus for $2 billion two years later.
About Karol Nawrocki
• Supports military aid for Ukraine, unlike other eurosceptic leaders, but he will oppose its membership in western alliances.
• A nationalist, his campaign slogan was Poland First. "Let's help others, but let's take care of our own citizens first," he said on social media in April.
• Cultivates tough-guy image, posting videos of himself at shooting ranges and in boxing rings.
• Met Donald Trump at the White House and received his backing.
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
