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Britain's governing Conservatives face “total wipeout” in the approaching general election, being reduced to “an irrelevancy” in parliament, a leading polling analyst has told The National.
The world’s most successful election-winning machine is on the brink of losing power to the Labour party, possibly for a generation, with the Tories giving UK voters “very little reason to vote for them ever again,” said Chris Hopkins of Savanta. It would also cause a scramble for a new leader from a very small pool of MPs, with some potential candidates losing their seats.
That the Conservatives are going to lose power is widely accepted as a near certainty but the question now is just how many seats the party will manage to hold, with bookmakers putting the odds heavily in favour of less than 100.
That would eclipse the Tories' worst performance in modern political history, outdoing the elections in 1997 (165 seats) and 1906 (156 seats).
“We have to start getting used to the idea of a complete Conservative wipeout,” said Mr Hopkins.
On a good day, opinion polls give them around 170 seats, although the latest MRP survey of 20,000 people put this down to 140.
Reduced to irrelevancy
The most serious threat is posed by the surge of support for the hard-right Reform UK since its charismatic leader Nigel Farage announced he would stand for parliament, although this could be weakened by his comments on Nato and Ukraine and allegations of racism against some candidates.
People who voted for Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in the 2019 election, when they won 365 seats, now have a choice of sticking with them, voting for Reform, returning to Labour, opting for the left-of-centre Liberal Democrats or simply staying at home on Thursday.
The impact will become clear on polling day, but it very much looks like Reform could account for a collapse in Tory seats, by taking up to 20 per cent of the vote.
UK general election campaigning – in pictures
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Conservative leader Rishi Sunak speaks at party campaign event at the National Army Museum in London on Wednesday, July 3. AP Photo -
Labour Party leader Keir Starmer addresses supporters during a visit to the West Regwm Farm events venue in Whitland, Carmarthenshire, Wales, on the final day of election campaigning. PA -
Liberal Democrats leader Ed Davey drives a tractor during a visit to Owl Lodge in Lacock, Wiltshire. PA -
Satirical political character Count Binface in London before challenging Conservative leader RishiSunak for the parliamentary seat of Richmond and Northallerton. Reuters -
Boris Johnson, former UK prime minister, campaigns for the Conservatives in London. Bloomberg -
Nigel Farage, leader of the far-right Reform UK Party, with heavyweight boxer Derek Chisora during a campaign visit to Clacton-on-Sea in eastern England. Reuters -
Mr Sunak holds a speech during his visit to Well Healthcare Supplies as he campaigns in Stoke. Getty Images -
Mr Starmer laughs as he speaks to supporters near Milton Keynes. AP -
Mr Davey bungee jumps during a visit to Eastbourne Borough Football Club in East Sussex. AP -
Mr Sunak bowls during his visit to Nuneaton Cricket Club. AFP -
Mr Starmer addresses an audience of Labour Party members and supporters during a rally at the Royal Horticultural Halls in central London. AP -
Mr Davey rides a towable inflatable during a visit to Lakeside Ski & Wake, in the Cotswolds. Reuters -
Mr Sunak and his wife Akshata Murty visit the BAPS Shri Swaminarayan Mandir in London. AFP -
Mr Starmer during a visit to the Shree Swaminarayan Mandir Hindu temple in Kingsbury, London. PA -
Mr Davey participates in a Zumba class with supporters in Wokingham. Reuters -
Mr Starmer speaking during a visit to Northampton Town Football Club at Sixfields Stadium. PA -
Mr Sunak delivers a speech in central London. AFP -
Mr Davey jet-washes an ambulance in London. Getty Images -
Mr Starmer rests his hand on the shoulder of Idris Elba as they meet families of knife crime victims, in west London. PA -
Mr Sunak turns on the power in the training centre control room during a tour of the Sizewell B nuclear power plant. AFP -
Mr Davey plays a game of Frisbee on a visit to a farm in Hampshire. AP -
Mr Starmer and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves visit a supermarket in Swindon. PA -
Mr Sunak speaks to journalists on the campaign bus following the launch of the Welsh Conservatives General Election manifesto near Rhyl. Reuters -
Mr Davey taking part in wheelbarrow racing at Huish Park, home of Yeovil Town football club in Somerset. PA -
Mr Farage speaks to the press in Clacton-on-Sea. Bloomberg -
Mr Starmer speaks at the launch of the Labour party's 2024 general election manifesto in Manchester. AP -
Mr Sunak answers questions from the audience in Grimsby. Getty Images -
Mr Davey toasts a marshmallow as he visits Willow Forest School in Surrey. EPA -
Mr Farage attends the launch of the Reform UK manifesto in Merthyr Tydfil, Wales. Reuters -
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar launches Scottish Labour’s battle bus campaign on June 17 in South Queensferry, Scotland. Getty Images -
Britain's Labour Party politician and Shadow Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Wes Streeting speaks to a television crew outside the BBC in London. AFP -
Leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Ed Davey, on the BBC 1 current affairs programme, Sunday, with Laura Kuenssberg. BBC -
Mr Sunak meets pupils in a maths class during a visit to the John Whitgift Academy, in Grimsby. AP -
Mr Starmer during a visit to Grimsby Institute, a technical training college in Grimsby. PA -
Mr Davey during a general election campaign visit to the Aqua Jungle Spot in Stratford-upon-Avon. Bloomberg -
Mr Sunak and Akshata Murty take centre stage at the Conservative Party's general election manifesto launch in Towcester. Getty Images -
Mr Starmer passes a toothbrush to a child during his visits to the Whale Hill Primary School in Middlesbrough. AP -
Mr Davey meets Steve Darling, Liberal Democrat candidate for Torbay and his guide dog Jennie at Torquay Harbour. Getty Images -
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage reacts after something is thrown towards him on the campaign bus in Cawthorne, Barnsley. AP -
Mr Sunak attends a neighbourhood watch meeting in Horsham, West Sussex. PA -
Mr Starmer helps volunteers pot plants during a visit to Harlesden Town Garden in north-west London. PA -
Mr Davey on the 'Rush' ride during a Liberal Democrats general election campaign event at Thorpe Park. Reuters -
Mr Sunak, during a visit to Imagination Childcare, in Swindon, Wiltshire, while on the election campaign trail. PA -
Mr Starmer visits Brent Cross town's visitor pavilion for a housing launch in London. Getty Images -
Mr Davey grills burgers in a garden, during campaigning in Wiltshire. PA -
Mr Sunak during a visit to Leander Club, in Henley-on-Thames, as a boat carrying Liberal Democrat supporters passes behind him. Reuters -
Mr Starmer meets pensioners to talk about the impact of the energy crisis and the cost of living, in a cafe in Bolton. PA -
Mr Sunak and Mr Starmer lock horns the first televised general election debate of the campaign, at MediaCity in Salford. PA -
Mr Davey plays Jenga using symbolic 'blue wall' blocks in Stockport. EPA -
Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn poses outside Islington Town Hall, north London, after handing in his nomination papers for the general election, taking place on July 4. PA -
Mr Farage has a milkshake hurled at him during a campaign event in Clacton-on-Sea. EPA -
Mr Sunak launches the Conservative Party's campaign bus at Redcar Racecourse in north-east England. PA -
Labour launch their election campaign bus, with Mr Starmer, his deputy Angela Rayner and Rachel Reeves, shadow chancellor, in Uxbridge. Getty Images -
Mr Davey holds a balloon with a figure that represents the amount of votes the Liberal Democrat party lost by in Wimbledon. PA -
Mr Sunak feeds lambs as he visits Rowlinson's Farm during a Conservative general election campaign event in Gawsworth. Reuters -
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, Mr Starmer, shadow secretary of state for energy security and net zero Ed Miliband and local candidate Martin McCluskey in Greenock. PA -
Mr Sunak holds a question and answer session during a visit to Niftylift in Milton Keynes. EPA -
Mr Starmer serves ice cream to day trippers on Barry seafront in South Wales. PA -
Mr Davey takes part in a baking lesson with pupils from High Beeches Primary School during a half-term holiday camp in Hertfordshire. PA -
Mr Sunak speaks with a cafe worker as he picks up breakfast for the media at a cafe in Cornwall. PA -
Mr Starmer speaks at the launch of Labour's six steps for change in Wales at the Priory Centre in Abergavenny. PA -
Mr Davey and Anna Sabine, parliamentary candidate for Frome and East Somerset, ride the Ultimate Slip 'n' Slide at Eastcote Farm in Beckington. Bloomberg -
Scottish National Party Leader John Swinney speaks during a visit to The Dower House Cafe in Edinburgh. AP -
Rishi Sunak examines Jackal armoured vehicles during his visit to defence vehicle manufacturer Supacat in Exeter. PA -
Keir Starmer with a baby at Worcester City Football Club. PA -
Ed Davey rides a bike during a visit to Knighton, Wales. PA -
Nigel Farage at the cliffs in Dover after speaking at a Reform UK event. Getty Images -
Akshata Murty, wife of Mr Sunak, meets with residents during a visit to a Royal British Legion care home in Ripon. Getty Images -
Keir Starmer and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves during a visit to Rolls Royce’s educational training complex in Derby. PA -
Ed Davey falls into the water while paddle boarding on Lake Windermere. PA -
Rishi Sunak campaigning in Amersham, Buckinghamshire. EPA -
Mr Starmer addresses party members and media in Lancing Parish Hall, West Sussex. Getty Images -
Mr Davey launches his party's general election campaign battle bus in Cambridge. PA -
Mr Sunak on the ball during a visit to Chesham United Football Club. PA -
Mr Starmer speaks to party supporters after making his first keynote speech of the campaign in Lancing. PA -
Mr Davey join supporters for a dog walk near Winchester. PA -
Mr Sunak visits a maritime technology centre in Belfast, Northern Ireland, as he campaigns for the general election on July 4. Reuters -
Mr Starmer and his Scottish counterpart, Anas Sarwar, greet supporters at the launch of the Scottish Labour general election campaign at Caledonia House in Glasgow. Getty Images -
Mr Davey, right, eats ice cream with his party's local candidate, Josh Babarinde, on the promenade in Eastbourne. PA -
Mr Sunak arrives at Inverness Airport, in Scotland, on the general election campaign trail. PA -
Mr Starmer during a visit to Gillingham Football Club in Kent. PA -
Mr Sunak speaks with members of staff at the Global Energy Group facility at the Port of Nigg in north-east Scotland. AFP -
Mr Davey during a visit to the town centre in Cheltenham. PA -
Richard Tice, the leader of Reform UK, attends an election campaign launch in London. AP -
Mr Sunak holds a Q&A with staff of a West Transport distribution centre in Ilkeston in the East Midlands. AP -
Labour's deputy leader Angela Rayner and Mr Starmer arrive at Gillingham FC. Getty Images -
Mr Sunak takes questions from workers at West Transport. Getty Images -
Mr Starmer holds a piece of campaign branding at Gillingham. PA -
Mr Sunak poses for a selfie in Ilkeston. AFP
That could leave the Tories with between 50 and 100 seats, said Mr Hopkins.
“There is massive potential for the Conservative Party to be reduced to almost an irrelevancy in parliament,” he said. “Nothing has gone right for them for a long time, both politically and mathematically. Plus, voters are very, very open to giving the Tories a kicking and I think that they're going to get it.”
Meanwhile, Labour is in line to record its highest number of seats with some polling companies giving the party 470 out of the total of 650.
This would give Keir Starmer's party a 290-seat majority – or a “supermajority” as the Conservatives refer to it – and may well guarantee that Labour remains in power for at least the next decade.
Tory fallout
The next question for the Conservatives will be choosing a new leader from among the MPs left in parliament after Rishi Sunak’s inevitable resignation, most likely on Friday.
The House of Commons will soon have a very different feel to it, with many big-hitting Conservatives in line for a fall including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Johnny Mercer, Liam Fox and Anne-Marie Trevelyan and former leader Iain Duncan Smith.
It will then be a question of whether the remaining MPs push the party to the right, into the arms of Mr Farage, or tack back to the centre, where elections are won in Britain.
“Who knows who will be left standing for the leadership as it’s going to be a very different-looking Tory party on Friday morning,” concluded Mr Hopkins.
Canada '93
The memory of Canada’s Progressive Conservatives’ evisceration in 1993, when it went from the ruling party to holding just two seats, is now being more frequently discussed, with the Tories potentially getting less than 50.
The Conservatives also face a further threat from various websites, such as Best for Britain, advising people how to vote tactically to remove their Tory MP.
However, these sites are not always accurate and could potentially assist the sitting MP by giving wrong advice. “If they’re wrong, then the Conservative could end up holding on to some seats by a whisker,” Mr Hopkins said.
With more parties becoming serious contenders for seats there is a stronger likelihood of three-way splits in voting in some constituencies, although these are difficult to predict.
The rise of Reform also means that in Britain’s first-past-the-post voting system the threshold of victory is lower for Labour and the Lib Dems.
Lib Dem opposition
Given the increasingly grim fallout from the “Gamblegate” scandal where Tories placed dates on the date of the election, there is now a slim chance that the Lib Dems could overtake the Conservatives to become the main opposition party.
Four weeks ago Mr Hopkins said that chance was zero “but the fact it’s now not zero tells you something”, he said. The chance of Lib Dem leader Ed Davey becoming leader of the opposition “is not zero any more”, he added.
“That is pretty incredible for the Lib Dems because at every other election it is basically zero.”
The Electoral Calculus polling company now predicts the Lib Dems overtaking the Conservatives with 71 seats to the Tories’ 61.
“If they get their voting operation right and get out the vote and campaign bang on, then that feels eminently plausible,” said Mr Hopkins.
It also appeared from party activist feedback that even “shy Tories” will not save the Conservatives on this occasion.
