A deal to scale back Russia's decades-long military presence in Syria saves face for both countries, as Damascus seeks to build on its new alliance with the US, Syrian sources said on Monday.
Having come to the aid of Bashar Al Assad during Syria's civil war, Russia was the main loser – along with Iran – when the former regime was overthrown by militant groups led by current Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara.
Russia withdrew the bulk of its troops and hardware but retained an air and naval base on the Syrian coast, as well as 1,000 soldiers. The Latakia naval base was a rare warm-water asset for the Russian fleet.
The new leadership in Damascus lacked the power to fully dislodge Russia, whose troops were based next to the former rebels they had sought to destroy. But under the new bilateral deal, facilities of “military nature” will become joint training centres within three months. Damascus will administer coastal infrastructure that has been under Russian control – an airport in Latakia and a commercial pier in Tartus.
Waiel Olwan, head of research at the Jusoor institute in Damascus, said he expects the deal to preserve Russia's “logistical and commercial” presence in Syria even as it reduces its military numbers in the country dating back to the Cold War.
He said the deal restores “Syria’s sovereign rights” and economic interests, while “preserving the minimum of interest” for Russia, particularly in Tartus. Pressure on Moscow over the war in Ukraine and Syria’s shift “into the western camp” have also compelled the Russians to compromise in Syria, Mr Olwan said.
A Syrian official said the deal, announced by Damascus on Sunday, was part of an “American clean-up” in the region, as the US and its Arab allies devise alternatives to Iran’s hold on the Strait of Hormuz.
Although Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani has been engaged in months of talks with Moscow, involvement by Turkey and the US has helped push the deal over the line. “This game was bigger than Syria,” the Syrian official said. “The geostrategic map of the region is being redrawn and the Russian presence in Syria could not remain in its present form.”
Economic vision
The Iran conflict and ensuing war of attrition have initiated a scramble to build alternative routes for Gulf oil and other goods to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Last month, the US oversaw the signing of a megaproject to revive an oil pipeline from Iraq to the Syrian coast.
Proposals involving Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the UAE could redirect traffic over land to the Syrian ports of Latakia and Tartus. Iran cut off access to the strait during the war and the US also blockaded the area, with agreements to reopen the channel unravelling in the past several months.
Syrian authorities did not say what would happen to the 1,000 Russian troops on the coast, or mention any restrictions on Russian naval movement into or out of Tartus. However, administration of Latakia Airport will pass to Syria's General Authority of Civil Aviation, official media reported.
The official said that by allowing Syrian presence in what was a Russian zone, the deal will boost the image of Syria in Washington, and strengthen the process of lifting all US sanctions on the country. Congress is still to deliberate on a decision by US President Donald Trump to end Syria’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism.
Removing the designation, which was imposed in the 1970s, would result in the lifting of all remaining sanctions on Syria. The official said Syria could not afford to appear relaxed about Moscow’s presence on its territory.
Another Syrian source said Moscow‘s main interest has been preserved in the form of access to Tartus. Regarding the airbase at Hmeimim, the source said the Russian presence was sharply scaled back in December and many of the warplanes there belonged to the Assad-era air force.
The Syrian takeover of Latakia Airport, however, was significant in that any Russian aerial activity would now need Syrian clearance.
“It is also important symbolically in terms of sovereignty,” the source said. They said many Syrians had regarded Mr Al Shara’s approach towards Moscow as too soft.
Mr Al Shara has visited Moscow twice since he took office, but has not called publicly for a withdrawal of Russian forces. Moscow also held diplomatic leverage over Damascus: in November, Russia voted in favour of lifting a UN terrorist designation on Mr Al Shara and his interior minister.
Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, the former militia and Al Qaeda affiliate that Mr Al Shara led, was based in areas of northern Syria, near Turkey, during the civil war. In 2023, a Russian-backed offensive by the former regime and pro-Iranian militias on Idlib was halted after Russia and Turkey came close to war.
