British Middle East figures have told The National the UK's next prime minister should take a harder line with Israel, with a ban on importing goods from illegally occupied territories.
Andy Burnham has already signalled a change in Labour policy by apologising for the approach taken by Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government, which initially endorsed Israel’s siege tactics and took months to recognise a Palestinian state.
But the prime minister-in-waiting has indicated in a video message that he will consider a ban on trade in goods from illegal settlements, impose more sanctions on individuals and put greater pressure on the Israeli government to address Gaza’s plight.
However, it remains unclear whether he will label the deaths of more than 73,000 Palestinians during Israel’s Gaza campaign a “genocide” and will enforce greater restrictions on arms exports.
The Gaza vote
The government's position on Gaza was a key factor behind Labour voters switching to the Greens, an Opinium poll found last month.
With the party haemorrhaging votes to pro-Gaza parties, which led to the loss of four seats in the 2024 general election, a move closer to the Palestinian cause and a distancing from Israel's policies could change perceptions.
Signalling acknowledgement of this, Mr Burnham made clear his disapproval of Mr Starmer’s comments made in a radio interview in October 2023 when he endorsed Israel’s actions of cutting off water to Gaza and took 10 days to clarify it.
“I know many people feel that at the start of Israel’s military action in Gaza my party didn’t get it right and I am sorry about that,” he said in his message. “The response has too often not been good enough. We need to do better.”
Sir Vincent Fean, veteran diplomat and former UK consular general for Jerusalem, told The National that if Mr Burnham maintained current policies, “Labour risks losing further support” over Palestine.
“Evidently, Andy Burnham realises that Labour’s Palestine policy has severely damaged its support, benefiting parties such as the Greens and the SNP [Scottish National Party]. “Voters who care deeply about the issue will look elsewhere if they don't see meaningful change.”
Hugh Lovatt of the European Council on Foreign Relations said Mr Burnham’s approach to Israel and Palestine “will say a great deal about how he wants to position himself, politically at home”.
Occupied trade
If Labour are to win back the pro-Palestinian voters who defected to the Greens or independents – a move that could be vital in a closely fought contest – then Mr Burnham should “openly call out Israeli violations of international law”, said Mr Lovatt.
He also raised the issue of trading with lands Israel has seized illegally, which is coming under greater scrutiny, particularly in the occupied West Bank.
“The UK also needs to recognise the extent to which it is, often indirectly, supporting Israeli settlements through trade and charitable funding,” he added.
Charlotte Leslie of the Conservative Middle East Council said additional measures targeting illegal settlements should be a priority.
“If Andy Burnham were prepared to address the double standards that exist over Israeli settlements, it would show real political courage,” she said. “He could make a principled case for applying international law consistently by taking clear action against trade with illegal settlements.”
The UK's Middle East minister Hamish Falconer indicated to MPs on Tuesday that Britain was already actively considering how to address the complicated task of sanctioning goods coming from illegal settlements.
Mr Fean suggested making it “a criminal offence” for British citizens or British Israelis to purchase homes in settlements.
Arms exports
While the British government withdrew 30 arms export licences to Israel in September 2024, 167 remain in place, with calls for more reductions and a vigorous review of their use.
“Existing safeguards on arms exports should not simply remain on paper,” said Mr Lovatt. “They need to be properly enforced, with clear verification that UK equipment is not being used in breach of international law.”
However, it is unlikely Britain will ban exports of parts for Israel’s F-35 fighter programme.
Labour insiders are also pressing for the removal of the terrorist designation for banned protest group Palestine Action, “otherwise we are going to end up with hundreds of pensioners clogging up the courts over summer”, said one official, referring to the more than 2,700 arrests made in the UK for supporting the group.
Gaza ‘genocide’ question
An area where Mr Burnham will be tested is whether he labels Israel’s actions in response to the Hamas-led attacks in October 2023, killing more than 1,200 Israelis, as genocide.
“I have been absolutely appalled by what I’ve seen and read about the destruction of Gaza. There’s increasing evidence that war crimes appear to have been committed,” Mr Burnham said. While there should be “accountability” for Gaza's suffering, the legalities should be down to the “international courts to determine”.
But Miran Hassan, director of Labour’s Middle East Council, said the next prime minister would have to “play a much more active leadership role in addressing both the conflict itself and its wider regional consequences”.
While Britain recognised a Palestinian state in 2025, Mr Burnham admitted that more pressure was needed on Israel and that pressure would grow to address the ailing two-state solution. A priority should be “turning Britain's recognition of Palestine into a practical reality”, said Mr Fean.
The new prime minister should push for “genuine freedom of movement between Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem under Palestinian rather than Israeli control”.
“Recognition has to be backed up by policies that make a viable Palestinian state possible,” Mr Fean added.
