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Afghanistan is a rare example of a country near Iran that has avoided direct attack during the war. The economically fragile nation sidestepped US and Israeli strikes, as well as Tehran’s retaliatory attacks across the region.
But that does not mean the central Asian country has escaped the war's effects, against the backdrop of its own continuing conflict with Pakistan, a senior Afghan Foreign Ministry official told The National.
The sudden influx of returning Afghans from Iran, inflation, and a deterioration of relations between Tehran and key partner nations in the Gulf have all affected Afghanistan, which has been run by a Taliban-led government since the US military withdrawal and collapse of the former leadership in 2021.
“We are in regional security instability,” Zakir Jalaly, the Afghan Foreign Ministry's second political director, said in an interview at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Turkey.
Iran, a Shiite-majority republic, and the Taliban, a Sunni Islamist group, have not always had smooth relations, and have sparred over issues such as water use, border security and drug trafficking. But they share a 920km land border and their ties are also characterised by pragmatic engagement.
Afghanistan opposed the US and Israeli campaign on Iran but was also against Iran’s retaliatory strikes across the region, which Mr Jalaly said caused “grave concern” in Kabul.
“We made it clear to the Iranians that this is a concerning point for the Islamic Emirate [of Afghanistan], that they are expanding this conflict to include some other regional countries,” Mr Jalaly said. “It’s not fair to continue rocketing, targeting these countries.” The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has been the country’s official name since the Taliban takeover.
Gulf ties
A shaky ceasefire between the US and Iran, due to expire on Wednesday, has calmed the violence across the region. But Iran’s strikes on Gulf countries have caused relations to nosedive, in a way that could have negative consequences for Afghanistan, Mr Jalaly said.
As Kabul attempts to manage its relations with both, “it will definitely limit our options”, he added.
“At this moment, this sort of mistrust and problematic relations between Gulf countries and Iran adds more complexity to our regional relations.”
Gulf nations have formed a key bridge for Kabul as it attempts to position itself as a strategically located partner. They have worked to resolve issues between Afghanistan and western nations by acting as mediators in the absence of formal diplomatic recognition. Russia is the only UN state that has recognised the Taliban-led government in Kabul.
Qatar helped mediate last year's release of elderly British couple Peter and Barbie Reynolds, who had been detained for nearly eight months. The UAE helped secure the release last month of US citizen Dennis Coyle, who had been held for more than a year.
Mr Jalaly said Afghanistan has diplomats in most Gulf countries and will soon appoint a representative to Kuwait. “With most of the Arab Gulf countries, our relations are moving in the right direction,” he said.
The lack of a US presence in Afghanistan was a factor allowing the country to sidestep strikes by Iran. Last year, US President Donald Trump said Washington was trying to regain access to the Bagram Air Base outside Kabul, which US forces abandoned in 2021, because “they [Afghanistan] need things from us”.
Mr Jalaly dismissed the idea US boots on the ground in Afghanistan. Past experience of US military presence was a “negative example in our bilateral relations”, he said. But he did not rule out the idea of a future potential relationship in other forms. “We can explore opportunities in our bilateral relations,” he added.
Price surges
Exports from Iran to Afghanistan account for most of their $3 billion bilateral annual trade, and there have been “price spikes” for goods such as building materials and foods since the start of the Iran war, Mr Jalaly said.
In a country attempting to rebuild from decades-long conflicts of its own, cement is in high demand. And in a nation with one of the world’s lowest incomes per capita, inflation is something few can afford.
Inflation was 7.6 per cent in the year to March, with particular rises in the prices of fruit, vegetables and spices, according to data published last week by Afghanistan’s Ministry of Finance.
“Mostly our western areas in Afghanistan, particularly Herat and surrounding provinces, they are dependent on imports from Iran,” Mr Jalaly added. “More important is that our transit through Iran will be affected with the continuation of this instability.”
Iran is normally home to millions of Afghan refugees, many of them undocumented, and according to UN figures around 155,000 have crossed the border back into Afghanistan since the Iran war started. The return is an “influx”, without “pre-planning”, Mr Jalaly, said.
Iran had already been deporting tens of thousands of Iranians over the past 18 months, especially following the 12-day war with Israel last June, after which Tehran accused Afghans of working as spies and stepped up their removals from the country.
Pakistan conflict
The Iran war began only days after intermittent conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan reignited on February 21. Pakistan declared open war on Afghanistan as it blamed a rise in militant attacks on its soil on groups based in Afghanistan, which the Taliban denies.
The two sides held talks in the Chinese city of Urumqi this month but there is still no end to the conflict. The fighting has killed hundreds of people, mostly in Afghanistan.
Asked what both sides might be willing to compromise on to reach an agreement, Mr Jalaly urged Pakistan to adopt, “a more realistic and pragmatic approach” in bilateral relations. “I think we have tasted conflict and it’s in neither side's interest.”
He advocated compartmentalisation of issues in their ties, to allow trade and commerce to continue even if major differences over security and governance persist. He described border crossing closures imposed since Afghanistan and Pakistan began fighting again as having “inflicted much suffering on both sides” for traders.
“That's why our initial proposal to the Pakistani side is, first of all, let's continue dialogue and negotiations on the security and political files,” he said. At the same time, trade and transit should be allowed to “work smoothly, without being affected by our political and security issues”.
