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High-stakes, make-or-break talks between the US and Iran are expected to begin in Islamabad on Saturday, as both sides test whether a fragile, Pakistan-brokered ceasefire can be turned into a pathway out of a six-week war.
The most consequential negotiations in years between the two adversaries have no confirmed start time, and no guarantee they will proceed at all, yet the cloudy skies and eerie stillness in Islamabad suggest a city and its officials braced to push relentlessly for a breakthrough.
A Pakistani official told The National that the Iranian side, having arrived in the middle of the night, may take the morning to rest. But after a war that has reshaped Iran and the wider region, it is hard to imagine either side approaching the talks with anything but urgency.
Iran's delegation, led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, arrived in Islamabad overnight. Defence Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian, Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, and some members of Parliament are also part of the delegation. Their presence has helped steady immediate doubts over the talks, after Tehran warned it would not engage without a ceasefire in Lebanon and sanctions relief.
The US team, led by Vice President JD Vance and joined by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, arrived after a refuelling stop in Paris, underscoring Washington’s intent to elevate the talks into a top-tier strategic effort.
Even as both sides arrive, the diplomatic gap remains wide. Washington has framed the talks around a narrow objective: ensuring Iran does not acquire a nuclear weapon. President Donald Trump has insisted Tehran has "no cards" beyond disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, while signalling that any deal would centre on nuclear restrictions rather than broader regional issues.
He claimed that regime change had never been a condition for a deal, and also said the Strait of Hormuz would “open up automatically” once an agreement is reached. “If we just left, the strait’s going to — otherwise they make no money,” he told reporters at Joint Base Andrews as he departed for Charlottesville, Virginia. “What we have is no nuclear weapon, but we’ll open the strait anyway. Don’t forget, we don’t use the strait — other countries do.”
Tehran, however, is entering the talks with a broader set of demands. Iranian officials say negotiations cannot begin without guarantees tied to Lebanon, where its ally Hezbollah remains engaged in conflict with Israel, as well as tangible progress on lifting US sanctions. State-linked media have suggested that talks will proceed only if these preconditions are accepted. Experts, however, view the stance less as a hard red line and more as a pressure tactic aimed at shaping the terms of engagement before negotiations begin.
Critical intermediary
Against that backdrop, the atmosphere in Islamabad mirrors the uncertainty. The city's diplomatic quarter has been sealed off by checkpoints and barricades, with its streets largely empty. Movement is tightly controlled, and access to the venue requires navigating layers of security.
The area nearby is almost silent, broken only by birdsong from the surrounding trees. Reaching a nearby hotel required leaving a taxi and walking several hundred metres through fields and gardens, passing multiple security checks where officers conducted polite but thorough questioning. Even the hotel staff appeared surprised that access had been granted to journalists.
“The Iranians have arrived,” a Pakistani official told The National's reporter as he issued a visa on arrival at Islamabad’s airport.
The Iranian divergence sets the stage for a difficult opening. Analysts have warned the US team faces a "fragile, high-risk" moment, with expert opinion divided over whether a single comprehensive agreement is even achievable in this round.
Inside Islamabad, preparations reflect both the importance and fragility of the moment. The delegations are expected to negotiate indirectly, seated in separate rooms at the luxurious Serena Hotel, with Pakistani officials relaying messages between them. A US official told CNN that direct talks are possible, too.
Pakistan is positioning itself as the critical intermediary. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has described the negotiations as "make or break", casting them as a rare opportunity to transform a tenuous ceasefire into a durable settlement. The ceasefire, agreed earlier this week, is already under strain. Competing interpretations of its terms, alongside continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon, have complicated the diplomatic landscape before formal talks have even begun.
Mr Trump and Israel have both signalled they are ready to return to military action immediately if deemed necessary. Iran, meanwhile, has twice been attacked during periods of active negotiations, reinforcing Tehran’s deep mistrust of talks conducted under the shadow of force.
