Iraqi figures with links to Iran are distancing themselves from Tehran as the Middle East braces for US attack that could weaken the revolutionary Islamic Republic, analysts told The National.
Countries are waiting anxiously to see if President Donald Trump follows through on threats of military action. The Iranian regime has weathered protests marked by internet blackouts and state violence, with thousands of deaths reported, but the US has signalled it will attack if the violence escalates.
Some Iranian-backed officials in Iraq see Iran as “a sinking ship”, said Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Chatham House think tank in London.
“What we are already seeing are Iraqi actors close to Iran are recognising that a sinking ship is not good for their authority in Iraq, where stability for these groups means economic prosperity so they don’t want to sacrifice that,” Mr Mansour said.
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime in 2003, Iran has been deeply involved in Iraq's politics. Dozens of Iraqi political parties are known to have ties to Iran, which funds and trains paramilitary groups aligned with these parties.
The threat of US strikes comes as Iraq is attempting to form a new government. Iran usually holds a large sway over who becomes prime minister, but there are signs that things have changed.
For the Iraqi leadership “this is excruciatingly bad” said Michael Knights of Horizon Engage, a strategic consultancy based in New York. “They must choose a prime minister-elect in the midst of this and they have no idea if the Islamic Republic will still exist by the time that man is appointed.
“This will edge the effort away from Iran's friends and towards someone aligned with the West and the Arab world,” said Mr Knights.
Iran's regional influence has suffered immensely in recent years, especially since the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023. One pivotal point was the war last June between Israel and Iran, where the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities and claimed to have “obliterated” them.
The Iranian regime's position in the region is weak and its ambition across the region has diminished, said Galip Dalay, consultant fellow at Chatham House.
“For Middle Eastern leaders, the threats have changed: the greatest risks are now an expansionist and aggressive Israel, and the chaos of a potentially collapsed Iranian state,” he said.
If the US decides to strike, Tehran's influence may further diminish along with that of its regional proxies, Mr Dalay said. He said the outcome might be that “Iranian influence which is still strong in Iraq, might become less, that Hezbollah in Lebanon gets further weakened and that the Houthis in Yemen also would lack a sponsor.”
If Iran is attacked, its proxy groups could conduct attacks on US military bases – although there were no such counterstrikes during last year's war.
“If the scope of the air strikes is similar to the June war then Iranian-backed Iraqi resistance groups such as [Kataib Hezbollah] could attack US allies or bases in Iraq and the region,” Mr Mansour said.
Washington has been building up its military capabilities in the region, sending dozens of aircraft such as F-18 and F-35 fighter jets and drones. It has also boosted its air defences to protect US troops in regional military bases.
The US has personnel stationed throughout the Middle East, including in Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE and Turkey.
The countries hosting these military bases might also become a target, said Bente Scheller, head of the Middle East and North Africa Division at the Heinrich Boll Foundation.
“If the regime in Tehran thinks it has nothing more to lose, retaliation would probably be focused on US bases. It is expected the host countries would be under their protection,” Ms Scheller said.
“As a consequence, Iran might regard these states as legitimate targets as well,” she said, adding that’s why regional states have been pushing for a diplomatic solution.
The region fears that disruption and instability in Iran would damage its own interests, said Ms Scheller. Tehran has in the past threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz if it is attacked, a move that would choke off a fifth of global oil flows.
“It is a vulnerable point in terms of economy; a war would enhance the risks for this crucial point in international trade, even temporary ruptures and insecurity are difficult to manage – also beyond the region,” she said.
