Number of Palestinians killed in Gaza war under-reported by 41%, study finds

Tally does not include deaths from disruption to health care, food insecurity, disease, inadequate water and sanitation

Mourners recite funeral prayers near the bodies of Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes in Khan Younis, Gaza. Reuters

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The Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza has underreported the death toll from the war in the enclave by about 41 per cent, independent researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) have found.

An estimated 64,260 traumatic injury deaths in Gaza between October 7, 2023 and June 30, 2024 compared to the 37,877 reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health, the LSHTM study showed.

The findings, published in The Lancet, indicate that about 3 per cent of the population of Gaza has died in the violence, with analysis finding 59 per cent of the death toll were women, children and the elderly.

Nasser Medical Complex in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, following Israeli strikes All Photos: Dr Thalia Pachiyannakis

Dr Thalia Pachiyannakis, an obstetrics and gynecology doctor who served in Gaza this year, has told of the horrifying conditions pregnant women and medical staff face

At Nasser Medical Complex in June, Dr Pachiyannakis witnessed 30 to 50 deliveries every day, despite a lack of equipment and fuel

Squalid conditions near the hospital. A shortage of resources extends to soap and tissues, affecting hygiene and sterilisation.

Destruction around Nasser Medical Complex

Dr Pachiyannakis entered Gaza in a UN convoy. Their bulletproof cars were fired on by Israeli snipers, making it unsafe even for healthcare workers to enter the enclave

Makeshift tent accommodation adds to hardships faced by Palestinians in the area

The researchers used a statistical method known as "capture-recapture analysis" to estimate the number of traumatic injury deaths. This system uses data from a number of sources to arrive at estimates of deaths when not all data is recorded. The sources included Palestinian Ministry of Health hospital morgue records, a respondent-driven online survey, and social media obituaries.

The significant underreporting of traumatic injury deaths highlights the deterioration of Gaza’s healthcare system, leading to an inability to count the dead accurately amid the continuing violence.

Based on the estimated underreporting rate, the total traumatic injury death toll as of October 2024 is thought to exceed 70,000 Palestinians.

“The UN's Human Rights Office has already condemned the high number of civilians killed in the war in Gaza and our findings suggest that the traumatic injury death toll is underreported by around 41 per cent," said Zeina Jamaluddine, lead author of the study. "These results underscore the urgent need for interventions to safeguard civilians and prevent further loss of life.”

The total death toll due to the war is likely to be even higher, as the analysis does not account for deaths caused by disruption to health care, food insecurity, inadequate water and sanitation, nor disease.

To date, the overall death toll in the Gaza war is 46,006 since October 7, 2023, with 109,378 injured, the Health Ministry in Gaza reported on Thursday.

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