The dramatic collapse of the Syrian regime, led by the ousted president Bashar Al-Assad, at the hands of armed rebels, has introduced a new and significant dimension to Egypt's security concerns, increasing pressure on President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi's government at a time when it is already grappling with numerous other threats.
Egypt has been preoccupied with the fallout from the civil war in its southern neighbour Sudan, the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza across its eastern border and more than a decade of political instability and violence in Libya to the west. It has been equally alarmed by the existential threat to its water security posed by a massive Nile dam Ethiopia is building, which Egypt insists will reduce its vital share of the river's water.
It has also been alarmed by attacks by Yemen's Houthi forces on Red Sea shipping, which cut by half its revenue from the Suez Canal. Israel's attempt to alter the Middle East's geopolitical landscape is another source of concern for Egypt, which has a 1979 peace treaty with Israel, but in reality continues to view its former war adversary as a threat.
Having considerably weakened Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israel has, since the fall of Mr Al Assad on December 8, launched hundreds of air strikes against Syrian military targets, eradicating some 80 per cent of the Arab nation's assets. It has also occupied the demilitarised zone that has existed since the two nations signed a truce following the 1973 Middle East war.
“Israel's air strikes targeting the Syria military and its capture of Syrian territory are ominous demonstrations of its intent in the Middle East. It has changed the paradigm of the ceasefire in 1974 to one of confrontation,” said Anis Salem, a retired career diplomat from Egypt who is now a senior member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, a Cairo-based think tank.
For now, though, it appears that Syria has moved to the top of the list of Cairo's concerns on account of fears that the rise to power in Damascus by rebels led by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) could embolden Egypt's home-grown extremists, reviving the now-suppressed insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula and attracting foreign jihadists.
HTS is made up mainly of groups from the extremist organisation Jabhat Al Nusra, which was linked to Al Qaeda. It broke ties with Al Qaeda in 2016 and rebranded itself as Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, after a purge undertaken by the group's leader Ahmad Al Shara, formerly known by the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed Al Jawlani.
“The people of Egypt are alert, understand, believe and endure for the sake of their country. The Egyptian people are the nation's fortress. So, worry not, thanks to God's generosity,” President El Sisi said on Sunday, seeking to reassure Egyptians of their country's continuing stability under his 10-year-old rule.
In another sign of concern over the new order in Syria, Mr El Sisi also chaired a rare meeting on Sunday that brought together his defence and interior ministers, the chief of staff of the armed forces, the head of the main spy agency, provincial governors, and two dozen top military commanders.
A statement issued by the president's office said the Sunday meeting discussed “developments in Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen … and water security, since it is a top priority for Egypt and an existential issue”. It did not provide details about the substance of the discussions.
“Egypt was from the start suspicious of the role and rise of Islamists and Islamism in the Syrian opposition. The sectarian and geopolitical calculations that figured prominently for some outside actors when it came to Syria were not a consideration for Egypt,” said Michael Hanna, a New York-based Middle East expert from the International Crisis Group.
“In terms of what Egypt is concerned about, it is less the possibility of a direct spillover and linkage but instead the possibility that HTS’s success could lead to a resurgence of Islamist thinking and buoy Islamists throughout the region.”
Egypt, according to sources familiar with the government's thinking on Syria, has no immediate plans to reach out to HTS to find out more about their intentions.
“Egypt will most likely wait for the United States to accord legitimacy to the new order in Syria before it initiates contact with HTS. For now, we have an operational embassy and a resident ambassador in Damascus,” said one of the sources.
“Until then, Egypt remains deeply worried about Syria exporting extremists or inspiring militants elsewhere to try to emulate what it did to Al Assad and his regime. The threat is real. Now that the war is over in Syria, fighters there will likely look for other battlefields of jihad and Egypt could be one of them. It happened before when the wars in Chechnya, the Balkans and Iraq ended,” said the source.
