Full-scale war could displace one million in Lebanon, warns government contingency plan

The document stresses a shortage of funding for almost all critical sectors

A destroyed vehicle at the site of an Israeli strike that killed top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr on July 30, is seen in the Dahiyeh suburb August 09, 2024 in Beirut, Lebanon. Getty Images

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A full-scale war could internally displace one million people in Lebanon and require over $300 million in funding over a three-month period, according to the country’s contingency plan, dated August 7, seen by The National.

The conflict between Iran-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah and Israel, which started last October in parallel to the war in Gaza, has already displaced about 100,000 people in Lebanon.

Fears of an all-out regional war have intensified over the past week in the region, as Hezbollah and Iran have vowed to retaliate against Israel following the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, blamed on Israel, and the Israeli air strike on a southern suburb of Beirut that killed senior Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr.

Even a “controlled conflict” – considered “the most likely scenario”, according to the plan – would still displace 250,000 people and require $146 million over three months to keep critical sectors running.

In "worst-case" scenario, one million people could be displaced, and $307 million would be needed for the same timeframe.

Lebanon's Economy Minister Amin Salam told The National on Thursday that the country will “absolutely” need the help of the international community if the situation escalates.

Lebanon, which has been grappling with an economic crisis since 2019, after decades of public funds being squandered, has struggled to provide basic services to those displaced by the border conflict.

The smoke trail from missiles fired by the Israeli Iron Dome air defense system intercepting projectiles fired from southern Lebanon over the upper Galilee, northern Israel, 09 August 2024. EPA

Mr Salam told The National that the recent escalation has further worsened the already dire economic situation, affecting tourism and agriculture and slashing expected growth margins.

The Lebanese cabinet convened on Wednesday for an emergency meeting to assess the country's readiness for a full-scale escalation, focusing on food security, energy, health care and education.

The contingency plan identifies key challenges and gaps.

It says that in almost all critical sectors – shelter, fuel, food and water – there is “a shortage of dedicated funding for emergency preparedness”.

Warehouse capacity for stockpiling supplies and the number of shelters for the population in case of major escalation and displacement “are far from adequate”, while critical humanitarian supply gaps needs “addressing immediately”, says the report.

Mr Salam said that current diesel supplies would last for only a month to six weeks in the case of a siege similar in scale to the 2006 war. Lebanon is heavily reliant on diesel generators for electricity production.

The country's food supply would last four to five months under an Israeli blockade, while medical supplies are not at risk at this stage, he said.