When Germany's Olaf Scholz takes the stage on January 11 to accept his party's nomination for a second term as chancellor, he will know that an election triumph would defy not only the opinion polls but also a trend of booting out governments.
A bumper year of elections in 2024 proved a disaster for ruling candidates, as leader after leader was punished by voters for social and economic turmoil that unfolded on their watch. Can any president or prime minister defend their position when voters deliver their verdict in 2025?
The German chancellor's Social Democrats are fighting for third place in the February 23 election, amid voter concern over migration, extremism and the economy. Centre-right leader Friedrich Merz is favourite to take over.
Poland will choose a new president in May. A populist billionaire is on the brink of a Donald Trump-style comeback in the Czech Republic. Canada's Justin Trudeau has a huge task on his hands to survive January let alone throughout 2025. And even for Ukraine's once-unassailable war leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy there are signs of public discontent.
The return of Mr Trump, who rode the anti-incumbent wave to win back the White House, looms large over politics in Europe. An EU-US trade war could further damage a stop-start economy that many voters have identified as a prime grievance. Any escalation of Middle East conflict would also dampen hopes of an economic boost.
The start of 2025 ushers in “the year when the world’s major players need to start practising what they preach”, said Paolo Magri of the Italian Institute for International Political Studies. “In other words, they will have to translate their plans, promises and ambitions into action.”
“Germany’s new government, regardless of stripe, will have to work out how to return to growth, how much to spend on doing so and then get on with the job,” Mr Magri said. “The situations may differ but the outcome is the same: a Europe with ever more urgent need for reform, and ever less political strength to implement it.”
Of the leaders who assembled at last year's G7 summit in Italy, two are already out of office: Britain's Rishi Sunak, whose Conservative Party slumped to its worst ever result in the July election, and Japan's Fumio Kishida, whose party lost its majority in October. A third, US President Joe Biden, is about to leave office. Mr Scholz and Mr Trudeau face defeat in Germany and Canada respectively, while a sixth, France's Emmanuel Macron, lost a parliamentary election that left him something of a lame duck. Only Italy’s Giorgia Meloni appears relatively safe for now.
Ruling parties were ousted in Portugal and Iceland and lost majorities in India and South Africa, the far right won an election in Austria, and a populist surge in Romania was annulled over fears of Russian influence. Governing parties did win re-election in Mexico and Ireland, the EU’s ruling commission remains in Ursula von der Leyen’s hands, and Russia’s Vladimir Putin won another six-year term in a stage-managed election with no serious opposition.
After venting their frustrations in 2024, people generally have a “cautious hope for the future” in 2025, say analysts at polling company Ipsos. Although 65 per cent of people surveyed in a 33-country study thought last year was a bad one, that was the lowest figure since 2019.
But “while on a global level people are most positive the economy will be stronger than in recent years, in Europe a number of countries are less positive in their outlook than last year”, Ipsos analysts Freddie Dale and Nick Chiarelli said. In France only half expect things to improve.
German contest
Germany's election was not due until September 2025 but time has run out early for Mr Scholz after his three-party coalition collapsed over rival economic plans. A Christmas market attack in Magdeburg has pushed migration and extremism back up the agenda as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) defends second place in the polls.
Mr Scholz has rallied his troops by reminding them that he pulled off a remarkable comeback to win the chancellery in 2021, having trailed in third for most of the year. The Social Democrats emphasise his calm demeanour and leadership qualities but most Germans feel he has lacked them in office.
There is no sign of great public affection for his rival Mr Merz, a millionaire who flies on a private plane and was banished from frontline politics for years after falling out with former chancellor Angela Merkel, but polls suggest Germans see him as the best of a bad bunch. Robert Habeck, the Green candidate for chancellor, is well regarded as a communicator who speaks to voters in plain terms, but his record as Economy Minister is a punching bag for the conservatives. Alternative for Germany (AfD) candidate Alice Weidel has some support but her party is shunned as extremist by all potential coalition partners.
Fixing the German economy will be a key task amid struggles in the flagship car industry. A new government will need to agree “a change of course in economic policy” and a “consistent programme for more growth”, said Clemens Fuest, the head of research institute Ifo.
In a last throw of the dice, Mr Scholz is presenting himself as a peace chancellor who will not risk war with Russia by arming Ukraine with long-range missiles, a step supported by Mr Merz. More than a third of German voters now say military support for Ukraine has “gone too far”.
Eastern Europe
Along with Germany's election, Mr Zelenskyy has identified Poland's presidential race as a key contest in 2025. Poland is assuming the EU’s rotating presidency for the first half of the year, bolstering its leadership role while France and Germany falter.
While Donald Tusk runs Poland's government as prime minister, the presidency is a key power base for the rival Law and Justice party after it lost its majority in 2023. Outgoing head of state Andrzej Duda is ineligible to run again, setting up a contest between the two factions.
As Middle East migrants are caught in limbo on Poland’s border with Belarus, Mr Tusk has disappointed activists by taking at least as hard a line as his predecessors. A power struggle with the hard right is sure to produce more tough rhetoric.
In the Czech Republic, billionaire former prime minister Andrej Babis looks likely to win an election due by the autumn. Mr Babis opposes Ukraine's EU membership bid and caused a stir by suggesting he would not send Czech troops to Poland or the Baltic states if they were attacked by Russia, Nato's cornerstone principle. He later backtracked.
Then there is Mr Zelenskyy himself. His five-year term would normally have ended in 2024 but no elections can take place until martial law is lifted. With Mr Trump's team pushing for a swift truce even if it means losing territory to Russia, that day could start to come into view.
At the height of global adulation for Mr Zelenskyy's wartime defiance, a poll in March 2022 put his support at 81 per cent among Ukrainians. But by November 2024, a survey of 1,200 people found him trailing his ousted former army general, Valeriy Zaluzhny. If even Mr Zelenskyy becomes vulnerable in 2025, no incumbent is safe.
