A Czech-led fact-finding mission to establish safe zones in Syria is under preparation as pressure increases on refugees in Europe and the Middle East to return home, The National can reveal.
The mission, exclusively confirmed to The National by officials in Prague, would be the country's first such initiative. It may also involve Cyprus, which has pushed to establish so-called safe zones in Syria for those returning.
Only a handful of EU countries have organised such visits as most of the bloc severed diplomatic ties with Damascus after the government's repression of a popular uprising in 2011, which turned into a civil war.
The planned mission may deepen divisions in the EU between major powers and smaller players on how to deal with Syria, as the refugee issue returns to the forefront of politics on the continent.
There is also growing unease among exiled Syrians that their protection status could change in a number of EU states that are running out of patience with their continued presence.
"Divisions among EU countries on Syria policy have been there for years, but migration imperatives have brought them back to the surface, rather than any substantial changes on the situation on the ground in Syria or the political situation," said Kelly Petillo, programme manager for the Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The Czech Republic says a visit is important to contribute to the EU's overall effort in supporting Syrian refugees.
Prague is "actively involved" in the implementation of EU Council conclusions published in March that called for the "safe, voluntary and dignified returns of Syrians, as defined by UNHCR", the Czech Interior Ministry wrote in a statement to The National.
The ministry said the fact-finding mission, which it described as a "standard" procedure, should contribute to assessing dynamics in Syria and neighbouring countries. The mission is in a "preparatory phase", it added.
There were no further details about which countries may join, but Cyprus has told The National that it has expressed interest.
This would be a first. Cyprus has not taken part in fact-finding missions to Syria before.
Cyprus is among a handful of EU countries, along with the Czech Republic and Italy, that want a "less rigid policy towards Syria compared to the official EU consensus", said Ms Petillo.
The EU position is more aligned with countries such as Germany and France, which refuse to engage with Damascus without a political solution to the conflict.
Cyprus is particularly concerned by arrivals from Syria because it is the EU country closest to the Levant and has recently witnessed a surge in arrivals.
The proportion of Syrians among refugees arriving in Cyprus has risen from 14 per cent in the first four months of 2022 to 30 per cent the following year and 83 per cent in the same period this year, according to UNHCR Cyprus figures.
In parallel, the total number of arrivals of migrants of all nationalities has decreased due to stricter immigration controls in the Turkish-controlled area in the north of the island.
Safe zones
The UNHCR says it does not have figures for points of departure, but Syrians are believed to be coming from Syria and neighbouring Lebanon and Turkey.
Their increasing numbers are due to "deteriorating conditions in Syria and neighbouring host countries, coupled with the geographical proximity of Cyprus as the only closest option for them", said Emilia Strovolidou, public information officer at UNHCR Cyprus.
Most stay in Cyprus, which has the highest number per capita of applicants for international protection in the EU.
There are about 30,000 Syrians in the government-controlled area of the island, where about 950,000 people live.
Their high number has caused concern among some government officials in Nicosia. They highlight worries about managing their growing long-term presence on the island but say it has not caused security concerns for now.
"We can't afford to create a new Syria onshore," one source said.
The fact-finding mission to Syria under discussion in Prague and Nicosia is closely linked to an effort to establish safe zones in the hope that people from those areas will willingly return home if they cannot secure subsidiary protection.
This status gives access to rights such as work, education and health care. It has been given to nearly all Syrians in the EU since 2011.
In March, the Cypriot Interior Minister Constantinos Ioannou said talks to establish safe zones in Syria were "gaining ground".
After a meeting with European Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas, Mr Ioannou said it was the “conviction of several states that the time has come to collectively dare” to discuss establishing areas in Syria that are safe for return.
In a sign that Cyprus's concerns have been heard in Brussels, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travelled to Beirut last month with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides.
Ms von der Leyen and Mr Christodoulides unveiled a €1 billion ($1.07 billion) package aimed at helping Lebanon curb Syrian refugees leaving for Cyprus, mostly through existing programmes delivered by international organisations.
The country of 5 million hosts about 1.5 million Syrians.
Ms von der Leyen appeared to open the door to encouraging voluntary returns of Syrian refugees.
"The EU will explore how to work on a more structured approach to voluntary returns to Syria, in close co-operation with UNHCR," she said, without giving further details.
Travels back and forth
Yet the reason that Nicosia started thinking of re-evaluating the status of Syrians was not their ever-increasing numbers, the Interior Ministry told The National.
Rather, the police have noticed over the past year that dozens of Syrians with subsidiary protection were illegally crossing into the northern part of the island for short trips to Syria by plane.
"If Syrians feel safe to travel back and forth, that means there must be areas where they feel safe to go to," said a ministry representative.
"That is what started investigations on our part."
Some Syrians in Europe say they fear discussions on voluntary returns may entail forcing people back on a bus or a plane, but Cyprus says that is not the plan.
"At the moment, there is no discussion for deportation," said the Interior Ministry. Forced returns have been documented in Turkey and Lebanon, where most Syrian refugees live, but not in the EU.
Cyprus wants to convey that Syrians should not take subsidiary protection for granted.
"We would like to pass the message that Syrian applicants should not be considered a priori beneficiaries of subsidiary protection but need to be examined on a case-by-case basis," a Cypriot Interior Ministry representative told The National.
When people fail to obtain subsidiary protection, they can still request asylum based on their personal circumstances and challenge decisions in EU courts.
No 'truly voluntary return'
Cyprus has not decided at this stage what the next steps would be if it were to revoke the subsidiary protection granted to a number of Syrians on its territory. The Interior Ministry said it was working on the details.
"Migration management is not a stand-still process – it requires constant evaluation," they said. "And this is what we intent to do. We re-evaluate the situation as it is every day."
It added all of its decisions are in complete respect of European and international law and that it is in contact with UNHCR.
UNHCR Cyprus said it did not support the idea of safe zones that has been pushed by Mr Ioannou and it had communicated its position to Nicosia.
"UNHCR does not view the current situation in Syria as conducive to promoting or facilitating large-scale refugee returns, nor does it recognise any ‘safe areas’ within Syria," said Ms Strovolidou.
"The concept of 'safe zones' has also been used to suggest that refugee returns do not have to be voluntary," said UNHCR Mena spokeswoman Rula Amin.
"UNHCR reiterates that the vast majority of Syrian refugees are in need of international protection and that any returns have to be voluntary, safe and dignified."
Cyprus says it agreed to take part in the Czech fact-finding mission based on reports from bodies including the EU Agency for Asylum, which has published country guidance on Syria.
The latest report shows the level of risk is particularly low in two areas, Tartous and Damascus, but that does not mean those areas are safe for all Syrians, the EUAA told The National.
EU Commission spokeswoman Anitta Hipper said that while it was up to EU countries to ensure effective access to the asylum procedure, the EUAA country guidance was an "important tool to ensure higher level of convergence in asylum decision-making".
The idea that returns can be safe for Syrians has been criticised by human rights organisations.
“No part of Syria is fit for safe and dignified refugee returns. General insecurity remains across all zones of control,” said Human Rights Watch Lebanon researcher, Ramzi Kaiss.
"There can be no truly voluntary return. Syrians currently lack the means to make informed decisions about risks, as there is no transparent monitoring mechanisms regarding safe return."
Countries are obliged to respect the principle of non-refoulement, which is to not force someone to return to their country if they could face harm.
The EU's migration and asylum pact, which recently entered into force, says that people at risk of harm in their country of origin are eligible to subsidiary protection.
Activists have also warned against EU countries revoking residency permits from Syrians originally from so-called safe zones, a step Denmark took starting in 2019.
This has caused an administrative nightmare for those concerned because they cannot be deported to Syria but are also not allowed to work in Denmark.
A Paris-based NGO, the Syrian Centre for Media and Freedom of Expression, described this situation as "disguised forced returns".
Some say that uncertainty surrounding the fate of Syrians may actually encourage them to leave in bigger numbers to the EU.
Willem Staes, policy and partnership adviser on the Middle East at 11.11.11, a coalition of Belgian NGOs, said it would "further embolden host countries in the region to forcibly deport more people back to Syria, which ironically will lead to more irregular migration towards Europe".
Lawyer Mohammad Al Abdallah, director of the Syria Justice and Accountability Centre, said a dozen cases of temporary returns to Syria, as documented by Cyprus, should not be enough to change policy.
"There's certainly always people who try to abuse the system, but that's a minority," Mr Al Abdallah told The National.
"It's not just about bombardments. Detentions, disappearances and housing rights violations are still happening.
"Even if you were allowed to go back home, you have to bribe half the city to enter and there's no hospitals, no schools, nothing.
"You can't dump people in the middle of ruins of war and say, 'the regime is not arresting you, so you're fine'."
Then there is the issue of monitoring safe zones, said Nadia Hardman, refugee rights researcher at HRW.
"Rarely have we been able to follow up with people returning to Syria. They don't want to talk once they are back in government-controlled areas," Ms Hardman said.
Speaking freely to Syrians during a fact-finding mission presents difficulties due to the generalised atmosphere of fear and persecution.
"There is a worry that it would just be a regime-controlled charade," said Ms Hardman.
A change in status?
Yet 13 years after the start of a civil war that has killed more than 500,000 people and pushed more than 7 million to flee abroad, patience over Syrians in the EU is running low.
Syrians remain the number-one group of people requesting asylum or subsidiary protection in the bloc, and they have a very high chance of obtaining either status. Last year, asylum requests filed by Syrians increased by 38 per cent.
Reducing asylum and migration numbers has become a common issue for governments across Europe and one favoured by far-right political parties led to their popularity soaring at a recent European election.
At a May 17 meeting in Nicosia, Cyprus, Greece, the Czech Republic, Italy, Malta and Poland said there was a need to "re-evaluate the situation", with the aim of "exploring an adjusted approach that will include more effective ways of handling the issue".
The ministerial joint statement notes "while acknowledging that complete political stability has not yet been achieved, [the] situation in Syria has considerably evolved".
Poland's undersecretary of state at the Interior Ministry, Maciej Duszczyk, said while the Czech fact-finding issue was not discussed, it was his view that it was "necessary to take action to stabilise the region".
Such statements can be explained by a recent surge of migrant arrivals in southern and eastern Europe from Africa, Ukraine and Syria, said Ms Petillo.
"This ties up with the Syrian refugee problem, one of the biggest crises for Europe in the next ten years and which has been persisting given the lack of progress on the ground in Syria," she said.
Of the Syrians having fled the war to live abroad, very few have expressed the desire to go home.
The latest UN Syrian refugee perception survey shows that only about 1 per cent of respondents said they intended to return to Syria in the next year, mostly because of lack of employment opportunities.
More than 90 per cent of Syrians live under the poverty line in their homeland, the UN estimates.
The second reason is lack of safety. Significant areas of Syria remain ruled by various armed groups
President Bashar Al Assad has made it clear that he doesn't want refugees returning for political, sectarian and economic reasons.
Hezbollah threats
Compounding Cyprus's concerns about an influx of Syrians are a number threats issued by Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, a powerful Lebanese party and armed group that is allied to Mr Al Assad.
Mr Nasrallah has called to "open the seas" for Syrian migrants heading from Lebanon to Cyprus and more recently threatened to attack Cyprus should it allow Israel to use the island as a base in a possible war against Lebanon.
Kassem Kassir, an analyst with close insights into Hezbollah, said Mr Nasrallah’s threat is a means to “put pressure on Europeans".
“If Lebanon takes such decisions, the EU could give us up to 10, 20, or even 30 billion,” Mr Nasrallah said.
For Ms Petillo, such statements are a reminder that "Hezbollah is very much in line with Assad, who will only let refugees return if the West eases its economic sanctions against Syria".
A western diplomatic source compared Mr Nasrallah’s stance to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan threatening to let millions of Syrians into Europe in a bid for more funds, which led to the EU sealing a €6 billion deal with Ankara.
"It's a dangerous game and the best way for Lebanon to antagonise all of Europe," the diplomat said.
The game remains most dangerous for Syrians themselves.
"There is a general fear among Syrians because they hear of EU deals with countries like Lebanon," said Mr Abdallah. "Now, Nasrallah is saying: let them go to Europe by sea. Syrians are afraid that one day, the international community and the UN will turn a blind eye to pushbacks against them."
