The latest data on Islamic State attack claims shows a clear geographic shift in where the group says it is operating. While ISIS remains active in Syria and Iraq, the balance of its claimed or ISIS-inspired attacks has moved beyond its former strongholds in the last couple of years.
Between 2019 and 2020, the majority of ISIS attack claims were concentrated in Syria and Iraq. By 2023–24, fewer than one in three ISIS claims came from those two countries, with far more incidents reported elsewhere. The overall number of claims has also fallen sharply, pointing to a weakened organisation territorially, but not one that has disappeared.
That pattern has been reflected in recent events. In the past five days alone, ISIS-linked violence has surfaced in different contexts. Just this week, US personnel were attacked in Syria in what US Central Command said was an ambush by a lone ISIS gunman. This is the first ISIS-linked attack since the fall of Al Assad. A Pentagon official added that initial assessments suggested ISIS probably carried out the attack. Days later, a Jewish gathering on Sydney’s Bondi Beach was attacked by two ISIS-inspired gunmen.
In Syria and Iraq, ISIS no longer controls territory, and its operational capacity has diminished significantly. Attacks in Syria, in particular, have declined markedly compared with the years immediately after the group’s territorial defeat. However, threats from ISIS in Syria remain elevated, especially after President Ahmad Al Shara joined the US-led anti-ISIS coalition, prompting many Islamist factions and ISIS-aligned supporters to label the new leadership as “infidel”.
Iraq also continues to face an ISIS threat, but mainly in the form of small cells and isolated incidents rather than sustained campaigns.
Elsewhere, however, ISIS has gained momentum. Sub-Saharan Africa has become the centre of the group’s claimed activity in recent years, with a growing share of attacks taking place in countries such as Niger, Mali and the Democratic Republic of Congo. These affiliates operate in fragile security environments, often exploiting local conflicts, weak governments and porous borders.
ISIS activity online has also remained persistent. In places like the Philippines, the group continues to use digital propaganda and encrypted platforms to radicalise, recruit and inspire supporters, even where its physical presence is limited. The Bondi Beach suspects travelled to the Philippines a month before the attack.
The data makes one thing clear. ISIS has declined as a force in Syria and Iraq, and has adapted, decentralised and shifted its focus elsewhere. The strategy today appears to be less about holding territory and more about attacks by lone actors, regional affiliates and a movement that continues to project influence far beyond the Middle East.
