Chart of the week: The UAE has faced historically low rainfall this year

Dry spell follows deluge in 2024, the wettest year of the past four decades

In 2024, the UAE recorded average rainfall of 129mm, which made it the wettest year of the past four decades. Historically, the country usually has about 60mm of rain a year. The UAE recorded more than half that total during the first three months of last year.

However, 2025 has been a different story. The overall rainfall is three times lower than at this point last year, while there has been 38 per cent less rainfall than the historic average.

Cumulative rainfall in the UAE

Cumulative rainfall (or cumulative precipitation, as many climatologists call it) is the total rainfall in millimetres recorded in a region over a certain period of time, usually annual, seasonal or monthly. This chart presents the monthly cumulative rainfall in 2024 and 2025, as well as the historic average between 1981 and 2010. It is a vital indicator for ecosystems, agriculture, water supply and the risk of wildfires.

In the UAE, most of the rain falls in the first quarter and the last month of the year.

Climate change and rain

Experts have said current climate models indicate that rising temperatures will affect the Earth's water cycle, increasing evaporation and resulting in changes to global climate patterns. That will lead to extreme weather in some areas, including more frequent and intense rainfall, similar to last year's floods in Dubai, and dry seasons.

Future forecast

This April was the hottest on record in the UAE. Average daily temperature highs for the month stood at 42.6°C.

Many scientists have said there is a need for more investment in climate modelling research and higher resolution data to help prepare for the changing climate.