Copper’s looming 'major deficit' threatens clean energy transition


Thomas Harding
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The transition to clean energy could face a significant hurdle with a looming "major deficit" in copper in the next decade, the head of the International Energy Agency has told The National.

Asked if the world could stick to the 2050 deadline for Net Zero, especially given the difficulties of global politics and the risks to securing critical minerals, Fatih Birol raised concerns over supplies of copper, which is a key raw material for the renewables boom.

“The need for critical minerals for fast energy transition will be really challenging,” he said at the closing press conference of the International Summit on the Future of Energy Security.

“Copper is one of the most important critical minerals,” he said. “In 2035 I see a major deficit for copper. We may well face shortages of critical minerals from a mining perspective and this may mean pushing prices up and this may be a hurdle for the cost of clean energy transition.”

British Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, left, and IEA executive director Fatih Birol at the Future of Energy Security summit in London on Friday. EPA
British Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, left, and IEA executive director Fatih Birol at the Future of Energy Security summit in London on Friday. EPA

One of reasons for organising the summit, held jointly with the UK government in London, was to give a “heads up” for countries that, if they want to achieve “a fast clean energy transition one of the areas they need to keep eye on was "critical mineral mining, refining and manufacturing".

Britain’s Energy Secretary Ed Miliband also responded to The National stating that “absolutely, Net Zero by 2050 is achievable”.

He highlighted that when he had previously been energy secretary in 2008 no one was talking about the goal “now 90 per cent of the world’s GDP is covered by Net Zero”.

There had also been a transition in rationale for the change as it was no longer just climate reasons but also for energy security in a more fractured world. “This transition is unstopplabe and we can achieve Net Zero,” he added.

“Of course, there are differences between countries but what I heard repeatedly is what I would call the hard-headed case for investing in clean energy.”

But both Mr Miliband and Mr Birol admitted that oil and gas would be necessary in the transition for many years to come.

Closing the two-day conference, which was attended by representatives of 60 countries including ten oil exporters, Mr Birol said all delegates had recognised that the world was entering a “new era of energy security”.

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2. Sebastian Vettel (GER/Ferrari) at 0.658sec
3. Daniel Ricciardo (AUS/Red Bull) 6.012 
4. Lewis Hamilton (GBR/Mercedes) 7.430
5. Kimi Räikkönen (FIN/Ferrari) 20.370
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Drivers’ championship standings after Singapore:

1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes - 263
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari - 235
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes - 212
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Updated: April 28, 2025, 12:29 PM