Iraq's Kurdistan Region in political vacuum as uncertainty clouds upcoming elections

Iraq's Supreme Federal Court says last year’s decision by the region’s parliament to extend its term was unconstitutional

A protest by Iraqi and Iranian Kurds in Arbil against the death of Mahsa Amini while in the custody of Iranian authorities last September. AFP

The Kurdistan Region of Iraq finds itself again in a state of uncertainty after the Supreme Federal Court's decision last week that the extension of the region's parliamentary term is unconstitutional.

The May 30 ruling has cast doubt on parliamentary elections scheduled for November 18, leaving the Kurdish region in political upheaval.

According to the court ruling, all decisions made by the regional parliament from the date of its term extension in October 2022 are considered null and void, including one to reactivate the region’s electoral commission to oversee the elections.

The semi-autonomous region was supposed to hold parliamentary elections last year, but disagreements between the major ruling parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, pushed back the date.

Later the two parties, who hold a delicate power-sharing deal in the region, agreed to extend parliament for a year so they could continue negotiations over issues such as amending the elections law and the share of revenues from taxation and oil.

Politicians and experts are concerned over the implications of the ruling. The absence of a functioning parliament leaves the region in a precarious situation, because the legislative body plays a vital role in passing laws, regulating the electoral process, and overseeing the activities of the government.

Federal supervision

They are now urging the federal government and its Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) to step in and take charge of overseeing the elections in Kurdistan.

“With that ruling, the Kurdistan parliament and the electoral commission are inactive, and the government is a caretaker one,” Baghdad-based legal expert Ali Al Tamimi told The National.

“Therefore, there is no legal base to have the elections overseen by the regional elections commission, but only by IHEC as its law allows it to do so,” Mr Al Tamimi added.

During a meeting with the parliament’s legal committee last week, IHEC said it is hard to oversee the region’s elections, which occur at the same time as Iraq’s provincial councils elections slated for November 6, an official who attended the meeting told The National.

The committee cited a short time frame adding that it needs additional time and preparations to conduct the elections in Kurdistan, the official added.

A spokesman for the Kurdistan Region government says the decision to ask Baghdad to oversee the elections lies within the authority of Kurdistan President Masrour Barzani. Requests for comments by The National to Mr Barzani’s spokesman were unanswered.

But a senior Kurdistan government official told The National that delaying the elections to early next year “is highly likely”.

Since last year, the PUK and KDP have been at loggerheads over many issues, including elections, power sharing, assassinations of PUK-linked officials and sharing of oil and gas revenues.

The PUK wants to amend the current parliamentary elections law to divide the region into four constituencies and to review the voters’ roll, alleging it contains false names.

In recent weeks, the two parties reached a comprise that allowed PUK to end its boycott and return to cabinet meetings. They also tentatively agreed on amending the election law and reactivating the region's independent electoral commission in one package.

But the positive steps made were quickly overturned last month when KDP forced a vote on reactivating the electoral commission only, sparking a fist fight in parliament between representatives of the two parties for the first time.

Now that a new elections law is impossible to get, PUK is seeking a political compromise.

“There must be a path out of this crisis,” PUK senior member Mahmoud Khoshnaw told The National.

“In our point of view, the real path out of this crisis is a political consensus between all the Kurdish political forces,” Mr Khoshnaw said.

Kurdish political forces must find a way to end political wrangling to “start a new era”, he said, warning that “arm-twisting policies will lead us nowhere" and if the KDP's policies continue, "I don’t think that we will be able to hold the elections, whether in its time or any other date”.

“Trust needs to be restored to reach a power-sharing deal with KDP and others to start a new political page and national concord and the most important thing is that there must be a will,” he said. "Then we can find an exit."

Independent political analyst Lawk Ghafuri said he does not believe that there are any objections “at least as of now” from any political parties in Kurdistan to hold elections under the supervision of IHEC, given that it had successfully overseen the smooth completion of the 2021 national elections in Iraq.

“Delaying or postponing the elections would have a significant adverse impact on the Kurdistan Region, considering that the political tensions between the parties has reached a stalemate,” Mr Ghafuri, the ex-head of the KRG's foreign media affairs office, told The National.

“Conducting elections seems to be the only viable option to restore peace among the parties,” he said, adding that holding elections is important to “ensure the promotion of democracy and the resolution of political complexities”.