Iran has enriched uranium to nearly bomb grade, IAEA says

Iran could make enough fissile for one nuclear bomb in 'about 12 days', US official says

A photo from Maxar Technologies showing Iran's Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in the north-eastern city of Qom. AFP

Iran has enriched uranium to a little less than the 90 per cent needed to produce an atomic bomb, the UN's nuclear watchdog confirmed on Tuesday.

“Discussions are still ongoing” to determine the origin of these particles, the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a confidential report seen by AFP.

“On 22 January 2023, the agency took environmental samples … at Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), the analytical results of which showed the presence of high-enriched uranium particles containing up to 83.7 per cent U-235,” the report said.

“These events clearly indicate the capability of the agency to detect and report in a timely manner changes in the operation of nuclear facilities in Iran.”

Asked about the presence of the particles, Iran said that “unintended fluctuations” during the enrichment process “may have occurred”.

Last week, Iran claimed it had not made any attempt to enrich uranium beyond 60 per cent.

“The presence of a particle or particles of uranium above 60 per cent in the enrichment process does not mean enrichment above 60 per cent,” said Behruz Kamalvandi, spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran.

Iran has been enriching uranium well over the limits laid down in a major 2015 deal with world powers, which started to unravel when the US withdrew from it in 2018.

The deal — known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — was designed to give Iran much-needed sanctions relief in return for curbs on its atomic programme.

Iran's nuclear programme — in pictures

New generation Iranian centrifuges on display for Iran's National Nuclear Energy Day in Tehran, in April 2021. Iranian Presidency Office / Wana

President Ebrahim Raisi, second right, is accompanied by Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran chief Mohammad Eslami, at Nuclear Technology Day in Tehran in April 2022. Iranian presidency / AFP

Mr Raisi and Mr Eslami at the April 2022 event. Iranian presidency / AFP

The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant during a visit by Mr Raisi in October 2021. Iranian Presidency / AFP

Iran's Arak Heavy Water Reactor complex, south of the capital Tehran in January 2020. Maxar Technologies / AFP

A satellite image of Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in January 2020. Maxar Technologies / AFP

A satellite image of Iran's underground Natanz nuclear site in May 2022. Planet Labs PBC / AP

A satellite image in January 2020 of Iran's Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, north-east of the city of Qom. Maxar Technologies / AFP

The Sanjarian nuclear centre, east of Tehran, in May 2021. Maxar Technologies / AFP

On-and-off negotiations between world powers to return to the deal started in 2021 but stalled last year.

The IAEA report comes as the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, is expected to visit Tehran “in the coming days”, following an official invitation by the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran.

“In recent days, we have had constructive and promising discussions” with the IAEA delegation that was already in Iran to investigate doubts about its nuclear programme, Mr Kamalvandi said on Monday.

“It is hoped that this trip will form the basis for greater co-operation and a clearer horizon between Iran and the IAEA.”

Tehran has repeatedly insisted that it is not planning to build a nuclear bomb.

In the report, the IAEA said that Iran's estimated stockpile of enriched uranium had reached more than 18 times the limit set out in the 2015 accord.

It estimated Iran's total enriched uranium stockpile was 3,760.8kg as of February 12, an increase of 87.1kg compared to the last report in November.

The limit in the 2015 deal was set at 202.8kg.

Iran's nuclear sites — in pictures

Russian contractors work at the Bushehr nuclear reactor site in 2007. The plant opened four years later. Bloomberg

An Iranian technician at the International Atomic Energy Agency inspects the country's Isfahan plant in 2007. Tehran is no longer co-operating with the agency at nuclear sites across the country. EPA

Workers wait to begin constructing a second reactor at the Bushehr nuclear power plant in 2019. AFP

A metal-encased rod with 20 per cent enriched nuclear fuel is inserted into a reactor in Tehran in 2012. AFP

Fomer Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and the country's Atomic Energy Organisation chief Ali Akbar Salehi speak at the Bushehr nuclear site in 2015. AFP

Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant has been restarted. EPA

Mehdi Abrichamtchi, chairman of the Peace and Security Committee at the National Council of Resistance of Iran, shows journalists the location of a secret nuclear site in Iran in 2013. AFP

Workers prepare to begin the construction of a second reactor at the Bushehr site. AFP

Its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent is believed to stand at 87.5kg, up from 62.3kg, while the amount of uranium enriched up to 20 per cent has risen to 434.7kg, up from 386.4kg detailed in the November report.

The IAEA has repeatedly warned it has lost its ability to fully monitor Iran's programme since the country started to restrict access in February 2021.

Regarding the particles enriched to 83.7 per cent detected in Iran, Kelsey Davenport, expert from the Arms Control Association, said that “even if it is accidental, it is no less worrying”.

“This should be a wake-up call” for the international community, she said in a recent online briefing, calling on the US and Iran to define a new strategy to defuse the crisis.

In January, Mr Grossi said Iran had “amassed enough nuclear material for several nuclear weapons”.

Iran could make enough fissile for one nuclear bomb in “about 12 days”, a top US Defence Department official said on Tuesday — down from the estimated one year it would have taken while the 2015 nuclear deal was in effect.

US and Israel pledge to deny Iran nuclear weapons — video

Colin Kahl, US under secretary of defence for policy, made the comment during a House of Representatives hearing when pressed by a Republican politician on why President Joe Biden's administration had sought to revive the deal.

“Because Iran's nuclear progress since we left the JCPOA has been remarkable,” Mr Kahl, the third highest ranking Defence Department official, told politicians.

“Back in 2018, when the previous administration decided to leave the JCPOA, it would have taken Iran about 12 months to produce one bomb's worth of fissile material. Now it would take about 12 days.

“And so I think there is still the view that if you could resolve this issue diplomatically and put constraints back on their nuclear programme, it is better than the other options. But right now, the JCPOA is on ice.”

US officials have repeatedly estimated Iran's breakout time — how long it would take to Tehran acquire the fissile material for a bomb — at weeks but have not been as specific as Mr Kahl was.