Limiting warming to 2°C may prevent 80% of Mena's heat-related deaths

Study suggests how region could avoid worst effects of global warming

Iraq's receding southern marshes in Dhi Qar province, due to global warming. AFP

As the world prepares for the Cop28 meeting in Dubai in November, a report has highlighted an urgent need in the Middle East and North Africa for stronger policies to avoid the worst possible consequences of warming.

Published by The Lancet Planetary Health, the report from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) recommends that such mitigation and adaptation policies are ratified at the conference and beyond.

Heat-related deaths in the region will be 60 times higher by the end of the century if no climate action is taken, researchers said.

The report, titled Current and Future Trends in Heat-Related Mortality in the Mena Region, examined heat deaths in 19 countries.

The study found that limiting global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels could prevent more than 80 per cent of heat-related deaths in Mena by the end of the century.

It predicted that under current high emissions, 123 people per 100,000 could die annually in the region, by the end of the century, from heat-related causes.

During the same period, temperatures are expected to rise to almost 50°C, making some areas uninhabitable and the region one of the most climate-vulnerable in the world.

The rising temperatures put people with cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney problems, as well as those with diabetes and neurological problems, at greater risk, Shakoor Hajat, professor of global environmental health and the lead author of the report, said.

“Global warming will need to be limited to 2°C to avoid the catastrophic health impacts estimated in our study,” he said.

Researchers from the LSHTM analysed potential variations in the levels of greenhouse gas emissions over time and various socioeconomic scenarios and found that most of the region would experience substantial levels of warming by the 2060s.

The region has been suffering worsening heat due to the climate crisis, yet the issue remains largely underexplored and little has been done to combat its effects, the study said.

“Even with stronger action, countries in the region need to develop ways other than air-conditioning to protect their citizens from the dangers of extreme heat,” Prof Hajat said.

Dry land in Jindayris in Aleppo, Syria. AFP

The report said that although current heat-related deaths in Mena are relatively low (two per 100,000 compared to 17 per 100,000 in western Europe or 10 per 100,000 in Australasia), a much higher rise in that mortality rate is expected than in other regions.

In the UK, a rise from the current three per 100,000 to nine per 100,000 by the 2080s is forecast.

Iran is expected to have the highest annual death rate in Mena (423 per 100,000), while Palestine, Iraq and Israel were also predicted to have high rates (186, 169 and 163 per 100,000, respectively).

The UAE and Qatar are expected to have the greatest relative increases in heat-related deaths.

These are also expected to be driven by large population growth in the region, so stronger demographic policies are needed, the report said.

“Strengthening health systems and better co-ordination between Mena countries will be key in tackling the health impacts of climate change in the region," the report said.

"With Cop28 coming up, discussions are needed to consider how countries in the region can better work together to improve resilience in the face of climate change.”