Sudan's transition deal fraught with challenges, analysts say

Military agrees to leave politics, but Gen Al Burhan says there are conditions attached

Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, centre-right, and Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, centre-left, hold copies of the agreement. AFP

The route to a civilian-led government that steers Sudan through a 24-month transitional period before elections faces difficulties so intricate they could unravel the process, analysts say.

The analysts spoke to The National a day after Sudan’s ruling generals and a major pro-democracy coalition signed a preliminary deal to restore the country’s democratic transition 13 months after it was upended by a military coup led by army chief Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan.

The agreement includes the departure of the military from politics, the creation of a civilian-led transitional government and a security and defence council in which the military is represented but led by the civilian prime minister.

Thorny issues such as reforming the armed forces and finally implementing a peace deal signed in 2020 with several rebel groups have been left out of the agreement pending further discussions. Also off the table for now are transitional justice and the purging from public life loyalists to the regime of ousted dictator Omar Al Bashir.

“Each one of these issues has the potential of unravelling the deal,” said political analyst Omar Abdel Aziz. “They are time bombs ticking away. They are too tough to resolve.”

Zahra Hussein (R), a nine-year-old Sudanese girl who dropped out of school for financial reasons, poses for a picture with her brother at their home in the village of Ed Moussa in Sudan's eastern state of Kassala, on September 27, 2022. - There are nearly seven million children in Sudan who no longer go to school, a victim of what aid agencies have warned is a "generational catastrophe". Children in the country have for years faced mounting difficulties gaining access to proper education, especially in rural areas. Sudan is already one of the world's poorest countries, plagued by political instability, droughts, hunger and conflict, with an adult literacy rate of only around 60 percent according to the World Bank. AFP

Abukk Sebit, 25, looks from her balcony after working to help financially her family in Sudan, at Ain Shams district area in Cairo, Egypt September 13, 2022. Reuters

Mostafa waits for the bus before leaving for Egypt in Khartoum, Sudan September 24, 2022. Reuters

Abdalla Ibrahim, the Sudanese owner of a coffee shop and father of seven, looks on as he sits behind a pot on a fire in the village of Gosla in Sudan's eastern state of Kassala, on September 27, 2022. There are nearly seven million children in Sudan who no longer go to school, a victim of what aid agencies have warned is a "generational catastrophe". Children in the country have for years faced mounting difficulties gaining access to proper education, especially in rural areas. Sudan is already one of the world's poorest countries, plagued by political instability, droughts, hunger and conflict, with an adult literacy rate of only around 60 percent according to the World Bank. AFP

Othman Abubakr, a Sudanese day labourer who has nine children, poses for a picture in the village of Wad Sharifai in Sudan's eastern state of Kassala on September 27, 2022. There are nearly seven million children in Sudan who no longer go to school, a victim of what aid agencies have warned is a "generational catastrophe". Children in the country have for years faced mounting difficulties gaining access to proper education, especially in rural areas. Sudan is already one of the world's poorest countries, plagued by political instability, droughts, hunger and conflict, with an adult literacy rate of only around 60 percent according to the World Bank. AFP

Ohaj Soliman, a 43-year-old Sudanese day labourer who put his children to work, poses for a picture during an interview with AFP in the village of Gosla in Sudan's eastern state of Kassala, on September 27, 2022. There are nearly seven million children in Sudan who no longer go to school, a victim of what aid agencies have warned is a "generational catastrophe". Children in the country have for years faced mounting difficulties gaining access to proper education, especially in rural areas. Sudan is already one of the world's poorest countries, plagued by political instability, droughts, hunger and conflict, with an adult literacy rate of only around 60 percent according to the World Bank. AFP

Malaz Al-Bakr Ibrahim, 23, who has worked as a babysitter in Egypt since 2020 because of the economic and political situation in Sudan, poses for a photograph at Ain Shams district area in Cairo, Egypt September 13, 2022. Reuters

Abukk Sebit, 25 years old, poses with her children after working to help her family in Sudan financially at Ain Shams district area in Cairo, Egypt September 13, 2022. Reuters

Abukk Sebit, 25 years old, prepares food before going to work to help her family in Sudan financially at Ain Shams district area in Cairo, Egypt September 13, 2022. Reuters

General view of a Sudanese coffee shop, where the number of Sudanese clients has increased in recent years after the economic and political conditions in their country deteriorated, at Ain Shams district area in Cairo, Egypt September 13, 2022. Reuters

Sudanese protesters rally against the October 2021 military coup which has led to deaths and scores of arrests of demonstrators, in Khartoum, Sudan, Monday, February 28, 2022. Since the coup, more than 80 people, mostly young men, have been killed and over 2,600 others injured in the protests, according to a Sudanese medical group. AP Photo

A man flashes the victory sign during a protest to denounce the October 2021 military coup, in Khartoum, Sudan, Jan. 9, 2022. Since the coup, security forces launched a deadly crackdown on protesters. Many activists were taken from their homes or snatched from the streets, according to documents he provided to The Associated Press. Around 80 people, mostly young men, were killed and over 2,200 others were wounded in the protests since the coup, according to a Sundanese medical group. AP Photo

A Sudanese protester holds a painting of a person who reportedly died in a previous rally during a protest, in Khartoum, Sudan, 20 January 2022. Sudanese protesters rallied against the killing of at least 70 protests in crackdown against pro-democracy since the beginning of the military coup on 25 October 2021. The protest was organized as the US Assistant Secretary of State Molly Phee and US special envoy for the Horn of Africa David Satterfield visit Khartoum to meet separately with pro-democracy activists and military leaders to put an end to the crisis in the country. EPA

A boy draws on the street in front of a barricade during a two-day general strike and civil disobedience campaign in response to demonstrators' deaths against military takeover on October 25, 2021, in Khartoum, Sudan January 18, 2022. Reuters

A Sudanese demonstrator waves a national flag during a protest against the October 2021 military coup, in the capital Khartoum, on January 13, 2022. The demonstrations which converged from several parts of Khartoum came only days after the United Nations launched a bid to facilitate talks between Sudanese factions. AFP

Sudanese protesters take to the streets of the capital Khartoum as they rally against the October 2021 military coup, on January 13, 2022. The demonstrations which converged from several parts of Khartoum came only days after the United Nations launched a bid to facilitate talks between Sudanese factions. AFP

Sudanese protesters take cover as security forces fire tear gas during clashes with security forces at an anti-coup protest, in Khartoum, Sudan, 09 January 2022. Security forces fired tear gas to disperse protesters gathering in Khartoum and attempting to march towards the presidential palace, as part of the continuing protesting movement against a military coup in October 2021. The protest was organized a day after the UN envoy for Sudan said the international group will invite different parties for talks in Sudan to end the crisis. EPA

A Sudanese protester attempts to throw back a tear gas canister during clashes with security forces at an anti-coup protest, in Khartoum, Sudan, 09 January 2022. Security forces fired tear gas to disperse protesters gathering in Khartoum and attempting to march towards the presidential palace, as part of the continuing protesting movement against a military coup in October 2021. The protest was organized a day after the UN envoy for Sudan said the international group will invite different parties for talks in Sudan to end the crisis. EPA

Sudanese protesters take cover during clashes with security forces at an anti-coup protest, in Khartoum, Sudan, 09 January 2022. Security forces fired tear gas to disperse protesters gathering in Khartoum and attempting to march towards the presidential palace, as part of the continuing protesting movement against a military coup in October 2021. The protest was organized a day after the UN envoy for Sudan said the international group will invite different parties for talks in Sudan to end the crisis. EPA

Sudanese protesters take cover as security forces fire tear gas during clashes with security forces at an anti-coup protest, in Khartoum, Sudan, 09 January 2022. Security forces fired tear gas to disperse protesters gathering in Khartoum and attempting to march towards the presidential palace, as part of the continuing protesting movement against a military coup in October 2021. The protest was organized a day after the UN envoy for Sudan said the international group will invite different parties for talks in Sudan to end the crisis. EPA

Crucially, the successful implementation of Monday’s agreement, particularly a credible civilian-led transitional government, would persuade Sudan’s western and Gulf Arab backers to release billions of dollars in aid to help Sudan pull through its worst economic crisis in living memory.

These funds were suspended after last year’s coup.

Besides its woeful economy, hunger caused mainly by drought and soaring food prices is fast spreading in the vast Afro-Arab nation. Moreover, the security vacuum created by the coup has allowed ethnic and tribal violence in outlying regions to break out, killing hundreds and displacing tens of thousands.

In television interviews after Monday’s signing ceremony, Gen Al Burhan has gone out of his way to emphasise the preliminary nature of the agreement. He described the document as a deal on “national issues” that can only be resolved with the participation of a broader base of political forces.

He has also made it clear that until its departure, the military will have the final say on who is in the transitional government, and will be the sole judge of the success or failure of its policies, suggesting that the generals could veto or intervene in the process.

Gen Al Burhan has also made the military’s departure from politics conditional on the creation of a government of independent technocrats, rather than partisan individuals. The success of the proposed government, he said, will be determined by its ability to fulfil the aspirations of the Sudanese people.

He has also delivered a stern warning to civilian politicians, saying he will not accept meddling in the “technical affairs” of the armed forces.

The UN's Sudan representative Volker Perthes speaks after the signing of the preliminary deal. AFP

He said he accepted the agreement’s provision for a civilian to assume the position of supreme commander of the armed forces, as long as he approves and ratifies recommendations presented to him by the military, reducing his role to rubber-stamping decisions of the top brass.

“The worst fears over the fate of the agreement are rooted in Al Burhan’s intentions and the extent of his seriousness in implementing it,” said Khaled Al Fiqy, editor of the online newspaper Al Saqiyah.

“An equally significant challenge is whether the civilian groups can close ranks and for the political parties to accept their exclusion from the next government,” he said.

The deal has already run into opposition from influential groups, including Islamists loyal to Al Bashir, who was ousted in April 2019 after mass street protests against his 29-year rule. The Islamists continue to have sizeable footholds in the judiciary, armed forces and prosecution service.

The Resistance Committees, a neighbourhood-based organisation that has spearheaded the antimilitary protests of the past year, also oppose the agreement. At least 120 protesters have been killed and more than 6,000 injured in those protests.

The Committees, which have recently splintered, embrace an uncompromising position on the military, insisting that the ruling generals must step down unconditionally and be held accountable for the killing of protesters.

Both the Islamists and supporters of the Committees staged street protests against the agreement on Monday, before security forces used teargas and stun grenades to disperse them.

The military forces, despite assertions to the contrary, are also fractured, with growing signs that differences exist between Gen Al Burhan and Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, his powerful deputy on the ruling, military-led Sovereign Council and commander of the well-armed and combat-seasoned Rapid Support Forces.

Sudan's paramilitary commander Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo attends the signing ceremony of the deal. AFP

Gen Dagalo’s RSF traces its roots to the civil war in the western Darfur region in the 2000s when, as a militia, it fought on the government’s side against ethnic African rebels.

Addressing Monday’s ceremony, Gen Dagalo said the October 25, 2021 coup was a “political mistake” and offered a rare apology for the state’s part in the seemingly endless civil wars waged by the military since independence in 1956 against ethnic or religious groups in the south and west of the country.

“It’s his personal view,” Gen Al Burhan said, when asked to comment on his deputy’s branding of the 2021 coup as a mistake. “It was not a mistake. It was necessary to save us from what could not be seen by all.”