'The UAE has always been the pinnacle': Retail expert Kate Hardcastle on the science of consumer behaviour

Few understand the art and science of shopping trends better than Kate Hardcastle. With about three decades of experience tracking global habits and patterns, she is now an industry authority – as valued for her consumer insights and boardroom counsel as for her documentaries. In 2018, that expertise earned her the MBE royal honour from Queen Elizabeth II.

Her latest project distils that expertise into a book, The Science of Shopping: How Psychology and Innovation Create a Winning Retail Strategy. “The book talks about every kind of theory, from pricing strategy to retail theatre, to retail experiential and scarcity, which we’ve just seen on something like Labubus,” she says.

Though it may sound aimed at insiders, she insists it speaks to consumers too. “My entire existence has always been consumer-focused. I’ve been checking the pulse, regularly and in-person, for nearly 30 years,” she explains.

Hardcastle rejects the notion of separate consumer bases for fast fashion and luxury brands, instead identifying a 'dichotomy within the same person'. Photo: Kate Hardcastle

Hardcastle says few places rival Dubai and Abu Dhabi for shopping experiences. “Retail in the UAE has always been the pinnacle. We used to bring everyone here as a centre of excellence.”

The region’s strength, she notes, is vision. “It was born out of climate, as people needed spaces to escape the heat. These had to be social, free to access, free to park and offer a variety of opportunities.”

That led to a wave of malls with ski slopes, art shows, fine dining and children’s play areas – part of a deliberate strategy to make shopping destinations enjoyable, immersive and communal. “The thinking was: ‘How do we make this beyond retail?’” Hardcastle explains. “How do we make it experiential?” It extended to longer hours, strong customer service and spotless bathrooms. “That was the brilliance.”

Hardcastle says UAE malls offer shoppers variety, convenience and impeccable service. Victor Besa / The National

For Hardcastle, it is a lesson in adaptability as malls, stores and brands confront seismic change. “We’re in the biggest retail evolution in 30 years, with the consumer front and centre.”

She contrasts this with her own childhood. “Stores would open at set hours, with set merchandise. The idea of being able to somehow get those wares without using a retailer was unheard of. And that was the state of play everywhere.”

Then came the internet, followed by a pandemic that normalised online shopping. Social media accelerated the shift further, driven by younger buyers. Stores lagged, she argues, clinging to outdated models. “The only idea seemed to be to shop cheaper. That kind of erosion is challenging, because if everyone’s on a race to the bottom, no one is making any money,” she says, citing the collapse of Macy’s and Sears in the US, as well as Debenhams in the UK.

Understanding why we shop is central to Hardcastle’s work. To clarify, she developed her Buyerarchy of Needs, a riff on Maslow’s model. At the base – essentials such as reverse commerce and value; in the middle – sustainability, speed, peer influence and desire; and at the top of the pyramid, financial capability.

The consultant's research highlights fluidity, with shoppers mixing high-end and value products, rather than committing to a single brand. Photo: Kate Hardcastle

“What are the drivers? Why is emotion part of shopping? Because it is quite a cold transaction without it.”

For retailers, this means embracing cultural nuance, not imposing sameness. “I don’t want cookie-cutter retail globally. I want it to feel different. And hats off to this region for leading the charge.”

In an age of AI and hyper-fast production, she argues, authenticity is non-negotiable. Consumers “sniff out inauthenticity instantly”. Brands must create unlikely, but credible collaborations – such as Gucci x North Face – offering freshness without exploiting fanbases.

Meanwhile, digital fatigue is rising. “The more AI and AR infiltrate retail, the more people crave human connection,” she says. Calling it “digital distress”, she points to a return to craft. “Knitting, baking, handwriting. As a rallying cry, Hermès handed its social media to 50 artists, giving creativity back to those who need it. Spot on.”

One of retail’s greatest contradictions remains unsolved, however: that of sustainability versus affordability. Hardcastle, who is known as the “customer whisperer”, rejects the idea that there are “two audiences”, with one for fast fashion, another for luxury. “It’s a dichotomy within the same person. We might watch a David Attenborough documentary and vow to live sustainably, and then buy a Dh300 bikini because that’s what our bank balance allows. The pendulum constantly swings.”

This tension creates space for challenger brands such as Farm Rio, Zimmermann and Sass & Bide, which mix desirability with responsibility. For Hardcastle, these point the way forward.

The idea of elite, exclusionary service is outdated, says Hardcastle, as ever-younger consumers are able to afford luxury items. Photo: Dubai Duty Free

Her research also highlights consumer fluidity – curating personal worlds by mixing luxury with value, rather than pledging to one brand. Nowhere is this clearer than beauty, as women build make-up bags around Dior foundation and drugstore lip gloss.

And yet, for all the data, algorithms and forecasts, shopping will always remain gloriously unpredictable. “If people were easy to understand, I wouldn’t have a career.”

What Hardcastle is most excited about, however, is the celebration of artisanship, as well as a renewed appreciation for local makers, craftsmanship and the preservation of skills. That means supporting emerging designers and respecting consumer intelligence by reflecting real lives. Above all, she says, it requires humility. “The idea of elite, exclusionary service is outdated,” she warns. “The next customer who walks into your store could be a teenage entrepreneur – and three years later, they could buy your entire stock.”

Retail’s golden rule, Hardcastle concludes, is simple: never underestimate your customer.