US ‘will not surrender’ in space race with China, industry leader says

Nasa is turning to private companies to build new space stations as the ISS nears retirement, while Beijing expands its presence in orbit

The International Space Station is expected to be retired by 2030 and the race is on to replace it. Photo: Nasa

The US will not relinquish its dominance in low-Earth orbit as the International Space Station nears retirement and a space race with China looms, a leading industry executive has told The National.

Jeffrey Manber, president of International Space Stations at Voyager Space, said the country is seeking a strategic shift to commercial space stations, ensuring a continuing human presence in orbit.

In an exclusive interview with The National at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, he said his company was making steady progress on Starlab, a Nasa-funded commercial station expected to be launched in 2029 on SpaceX’s Starship rocket.

“Speaking from the West here, there is no way the United States is going to surrender low-Earth orbit to China – full stop,” he said. “There is no way, not even in the prior administration, not in the Trump era. So, [China’s] Tiangong is an excellent station. It’s up there 24/7, fully crewed, and we will do the same.”

Mr Manber’s comments reflect growing geopolitical concerns as China continues to expand its Tiangong station, offering international partnerships to nations seeking alternatives to Nasa-led space projects.

End of the ISS

The ISS, which has been operational for more than two decades, is expected to retire by 2030. Nasa has now turned to the private sector, supporting the development of commercial space stations such as Voyager Space’s Starlab and Axiom Space’s station.

“We continue to make really good progress at Starlab,” Mr Manber said. “We passed maybe a month ago what’s called the PDR [preliminary design review] at Nasa. It’s a very significant step, where we’re almost locked in the final design, and everything’s good with Nasa, which is important because they’re the important customer.”

He also expressed confidence in the readiness of SpaceX’s Starship, despite the vehicle still being in the testing phase.

“We have full confidence that by 2029, Starship will be ready,” he said. “I think three or four [Starships were] launched, went to orbit, the payload doors opened, so that’s all we need. If they [SpaceX] are doing that already in the beginning, it’s good progress.”

A competitive space

Starlab is one of three stations backed by Nasa’s Commercial Low-Earth Orbit Destinations (CLD) programme, the others being Axiom Space and Blue Origin’s Orbital Reef. Nasa awarded initial funding of $160 million to Voyager Space in 2021 and an additional $57.5 million last year to develop the station. Voyager Space also received a $15 million grant on Monday from the Texas Space Commission. Under CLD, Blue Origin was awarded $130 million in 2021 and a further $42 million last year, while Axiom Space had secured $140 million.

Vast Space is another competitor in the field, which is not Nasa-funded but is still hoping to be a successor to the ISS. It is developing Haven-1, expected to be launched in May 2026, and the project will then be expanded with Haven-2 two years later.

Tom Shelley, chief of private crew recruitment at Vast Space, told The National the company completed a key milestone last Thursday, when Haven-1 passed a test to check whether the station’s main structure can handle the pressure and harsh conditions of space.

“Building any new spacecraft is an ambitious objective but we’ve taken our time, completed this test and now we have a good foundation on which to make our next prediction,” he said. “We're working towards launch now in May of next year, which is a little bit of a delay from our original stated intention of August of this year, but we have a high degree of confidence in this and now we're able to move forward to the next phase in our development.”

The Haven-1 commercial station by Vast Space. Photo: Vast Space

While Vast Space is not part of Nasa’s CLD programme, Mr Shelley said the company maintains a strong partnership with the space agency.

Through Haven-1, the company is looking to provide a short-term, privately funded solution that can be operational before the ISS retires. This approach allows Vast Space to develop its capabilities independently in the hope it can secure Nasa contracts in future.

“A lot of our competitors received some Nasa funding as part of the first round of the CLD programme,” he said. “We didn’t receive funding because the company really wasn’t around at the time to apply for that, but we do have the same level of technical partnership with Nasa.”

Haven-1 started out as a single-module station designed for short-duration missions, with plans to expand into Haven-2 by docking additional modules and including artificial gravity.

Axiom Space is building a modular station that will first attach to the ISS before becoming independent, with an expected launch date of 2028.

Starlab, in comparison, is much larger and fully integrated from the start, requiring SpaceX’s Starship for launch because no other rocket is powerful enough to carry its single, large module into orbit.

“Our focus really is to make sure that we can demonstrate that we can build and fly, and have all of the operational procedures to support crew on orbit as quickly as possible. And to ensure that there is no gap between the end of the ISS and the transition to commercial stations,” said Mr Shelley.