Saharan storms ‘threaten Europe’s solar power future’

Solar power generation can be affected by dust particles, with traditional forecasting models in need of improvement, scientists say

A man takes a photograph of Athens from Tourkovounia hill, as southerly winds carry waves of Saharan dust to the city in 2024. AFP

A growing atmospheric phenomenon is complicating Europe’s path towards climate and energy security targets, scientists have warned.

Mineral dust carried on the wind from the Sahara could hamper Europe’s reliance on solar energy, the European Geosciences Union General Assembly (EGU25) heard.

In their presentation at EGU25, Dr Gyorgy Varga and collaborators from Hungarian and European institutions said dust-laden skies disrupt photovoltaic (PV) performance and challenge existing forecasting models.

Their work, using field data from more than 46 Saharan dust events between 2019 and 2023, spans both Central Europe (Hungary) and Southern Europe (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, and Greece).

The Sahara releases billions of tonnes of fine dust into the atmosphere every year, and tens of millions of tonnes reach European skies.

These particles scatter and absorb sunlight, reduce irradiance at the surface, and can even promote cloud formation – all of which degrade PV output.

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  Skiers wearing protective face mask ski as Sahara sand colours the snow and the sky in a yellow cast and creates a special light atmosphere, in the Alpine resort of Anzere, Switzerland. EPA

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  Snowkiters sliding on snow covered with sand at Col du Lautaret mountain pass in Serre Chevalier, a major ski resort in Southeastern France. Reuters

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  Bavaria, Garmisch-Partenkirchen: The sky above the mountains in the Wetterstein range is clouded by the Sahara sand in the air. Getty Images

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  Ski slopes are covered with Sahara sand in the tiny Andorra principality in the Pyrenees mountains. Reuters

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  Skiers wearing protective face masks sit on a chairlift as Sahara sand colours the snow and the sky in a yellow cast and creates a special light atmosphere, in the Alpine resort of Anzere, Switzerland. EPA

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  Sahara dust makes the sky misty as skiers rest on the terrace of a restaurant beside a piste at the Corviglia ski area in the Alpine resort of St. Moritz, Switzerland. Reuters

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  Tourists ride an ATV along the sand dunes at just before sunset in Erg Chebbi desert near the small Moroccan village of Merzouga in the Sahara Desert. Reuters

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  Dr Diana Francis said snow melt can be expected to occur more frequently under global warming.

Previous research has shown dust storms have a significant effect on climate change. Fine desert dust blown across the ocean can also make the rain heavier by changing the size of cloud droplets.

UAE researchers also found dust travelling from the Sahara to the Alps causes snowy pistes and glaciers to turn a dramatic red, pink or orange.

Huge plumes of dust also get transported from North Africa to the Arctic, which could have stark consequences for climate change, research from New York University Abu Dhabi (NYUAD) has found.

A study of a 2011 cyclone over Morocco found it carried 38 million tonnes of dust, depositing 1.3 million tonnes of it in the Arctic.

Prof Benjamin Murray, an atmospheric scientist at Leeds, told The National: "Dust from places like the Sahara has long been known to be important for the planet’s climate. It reflects sunlight back into space so affects climate directly."

The researchers found that conventional forecasting tools which study average particle levels in the atmosphere miss the mark during these events.

Instead, the team recommends integrating near-real-time data on dust levels with cloud particles into forecasting models. This would allow for more reliable scheduling of solar energy and better preparedness for the variability introduced by atmospheric dust.

“There’s a growing need for dynamic forecasting methods that account for both meteorological and mineralogical factors,” said Mr Varga.

“Without them, the risk of underperformance and grid instability will only grow as solar becomes a larger part of our energy mix.”

Beyond atmospheric effects, the team also pointed to the long-term impacts of dust on the physical infrastructure of solar panels, including contamination and erosion – factors that can further reduce efficiency and increase maintenance costs.

This research was supported by the National Research, Development and Innovation Office the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, and the EU-funded National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change.