US job growth to be slower during the next decade

The number of jobs will increase by 6 million over the next 10 years to 168.8 million, according to a new report

The skyline of downtown Manhattan. The BLS projects economic growth may slow to a 1.8 per cent annual rate from 2.3 per cent in the previous decade. Reuters

The US Bureau of Labour Statistics projects employment will grow at 0.4 per cent a year from 2019 to 2029, much slower than the 1.3 per cent expansion rate following the global financial crisis.

The number of jobs will increase by 6 million over the next 10 years to 168.8 million, Tuesday’s report showed. The BLS projects economic growth may slow to a 1.8 per cent annual rate from 2.3 per cent in the previous decade. Productivity, meanwhile, is forecast to improve.

The BLS cautioned that the employment projections are a long-term forecast intended to capture structural change in the economy, not cyclical fluctuations, and don’t include the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

By 2029, all baby-boomers will be older than 65 and their retirements will contribute to a decline in the labour participation rate, the report showed, although employees over the age of 55 will make up a larger share of the workforce.

Many occupations are projected to see significant growth in the near future with some of the largest gains expected in the personal care and home healthcare fields – jobs that pay a median wage of around $25,200, the report said. The biggest percentage demand increase will be for wind-turbine service technicians.

The manufacturing sector is expected to lose 444,800 jobs between 2019 and 2029. Factors contributing to the loss of these jobs include the adoption of new productivity-enhancing technologies, such as robotics and international competition, according to the report.