UAE banks are expected to continue giving shareholders something to cheer with their second-quarter results even as the oil rout slows business activity down.
Most of the country’s biggest banks have transformed their business models in the past couple of years to get more money from services that command fees, such as asset management, brokerage and trade finance, rather than relying exclusively on interest from loans, said analysts including Jaap Meijer, the head of financial services research at Arqaam Capital, a Dubai-based investment bank.
Lenders have also largely cleaned up bad loans dating back from the financial crash of 2008, making them more resilient to any shocks.
These precautionary measures have made UAE banks resilient in the past three quarters after the price of oil lost more than half its value. Oil is the key driver of economic growth in the Arabian Gulf.
“We again anticipate a robust quarter,” said Mr Meijer. The “provisioning cycle is fully behind us”, he said, adding that he expected “continued growth in commercial momentum”.
In the first quarter of the year Emirates NBD led the sector with earnings of Dh1.67 billion, a 60 per cent year-on-year gain.
It attributed the growth to ebbing exposure to bad debt from government-related entities in Dubai but also got a boost from fee income and its consumer banking business.
Arqaam expects that the UAE banks that it rates will have a consolidated earnings growth of 15.9 per cent in the second quarter.
Meanwhile, EFG-Hermes, the Egyptian investment bank, is more conservative. It is betting that the income at banks it covers will rise 5 per cent in the second quarter.
Those projections come even as deposits are expected to weaken as government companies that can be relied on to fill bank coffers begin to feel the effects of lower oil prices. As the supply of cash tightens, banks in the UAE and other Gulf countries may start raising interest rates to their corporate customers, the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said.
The result, however, will not be catastrophic, S&P says. That is because governments in the region have amassed massive cash reserves and continue to invest in infrastructure. There has also been a sharp improvement in property prices. That makes much of the collateral that banks hold more valuable.
Most investment banks watching UAE banks agree even as business production indicators such as the Purchasing Managers Index show slowing growth in recent months for the country’s non-oil private sector.
“UAE’s largely favourable macro backdrop, adequate liquidity in the banking system and low interest rates are tailwinds for banks’ credit quality,” said Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo, a Cairo-based bank analyst at EFG-Hermes.
"A US rate rise is likely to occur towards the end of this year. We believe banks with a relatively high mix of deposits and corporate loans, such as Emirates NBD and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, are well positioned to benefit from rising US rates. We like UAE banks for their attractive dividend yield, particularly FGB, ADCB and Dubai Islamic Bank, which offer yields of around 6 per cent."
Most UAE banks came out of the first three months profitable. Concerns that the lower price of oil would dampen profitability proved unfounded, as the country’s economy has shown that it is now not completely reliant on the commodity.
While analysts say it is too early to tell what the longer-term impact lower oil prices will have on the ability of banks to make money, especially if prices remain subdued for a long time, they say that banks have so far been able to weather the storm by generating more money from fees.
As part of that strategy, banks are getting more recurrent income through advisory services, trade finance, capital markets, insurance and brokerage operations.
Because the margins the banks get from loans have become compressed, they are focusing on generating income from parts of their business such as individual customers and small and medium-sized enterprises, where they can charge higher interest rates because of the elevated risk.
Banks have also been expanding abroad to bolster their balance sheets and find new ways to make money as the home market becomes crowded.
mkassem@thenational.ae
Follow The National's Business section on Twitter
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
How it works
Each player begins with one of the great empires of history, from Julius Caesar's Rome to Ramses of Egypt, spread over Europe and the Middle East.
Round by round, the player expands their empire. The more land they have, the more money they can take from their coffers for each go.
As unruled land and soldiers are acquired, players must feed them. When a player comes up against land held by another army, they can choose to battle for supremacy.
A dice-based battle system is used and players can get the edge on their enemy with by deploying a renowned hero on the battlefield.
Players that lose battles and land will find their coffers dwindle and troops go hungry. The end goal? Global domination of course.
Herc's Adventures
Developer: Big Ape Productions
Publisher: LucasArts
Console: PlayStation 1 & 5, Sega Saturn
Rating: 4/5
The specs: Lamborghini Aventador SVJ
Price, base: Dh1,731,672
Engine: 6.5-litre V12
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 770hp @ 8,500rpm
Torque: 720Nm @ 6,750rpm
Fuel economy: 19.6L / 100km
How to increase your savings
- Have a plan for your savings.
- Decide on your emergency fund target and once that's achieved, assign your savings to another financial goal such as saving for a house or investing for retirement.
- Decide on a financial goal that is important to you and put your savings to work for you.
- It's important to have a purpose for your savings as it helps to keep you motivated to continue while also reducing the temptation to spend your savings.
- Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
2019 ASIA CUP POTS
Pot 1
UAE, Iran, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia
Pot 2
China, Syria, Uzbekistan, Iraq, Qatar, Thailand
Pot 3
Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Palestine, Oman, India, Vietnam
Pot 4
North Korea, Philippines, Bahrain, Jordan, Yemen, Turkmenistan
MATCH INFO
Rajasthan Royals 158-8 (20 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab 143/7 (20 ovs)
Rajasthan Royals won by 15 runs
RESULTS
Bantamweight:
Zia Mashwani (PAK) bt Chris Corton (PHI)
Super lightweight:
Flavio Serafin (BRA) bt Mohammad Al Khatib (JOR)
Super lightweight:
Dwight Brooks (USA) bt Alex Nacfur (BRA)
Bantamweight:
Tariq Ismail (CAN) bt Jalal Al Daaja (JOR)
Featherweight:
Abdullatip Magomedov (RUS) bt Sulaiman Al Modhyan (KUW)
Middleweight:
Mohammad Fakhreddine (LEB) bt Christofer Silva (BRA)
Middleweight:
Rustam Chsiev (RUS) bt Tarek Suleiman (SYR)
Welterweight:
Khamzat Chimaev (SWE) bt Mzwandile Hlongwa (RSA)
Lightweight:
Alex Martinez (CAN) bt Anas Siraj Mounir (MAR)
Welterweight:
Jarrah Al Selawi (JOR) bt Abdoul Abdouraguimov (FRA)
Results
Men's finals
45kg:Duc Le Hoang (VIE) beat Zolfi Amirhossein (IRI) points 29-28. 48kg: Naruephon Chittra (THA) beat Joseph Vanlalhruaia (IND) TKO round 2.
51kg: Sakchai Chamchit (THA) beat Salam Al Suwaid (IRQ) TKO round 1. 54kg: Veerasak Senanue (THA) beat Huynh Hoang Phi (VIE) 30-25.
57kg: Almaz Sarsembekov (KAZ) beat Tak Chuen Suen (MAC) RSC round 3. 60kg: Yerkanat Ospan (KAZ) beat Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) 30-27.
63.5kg: Abil Galiyev (KAZ) beat Nouredine Samir (UAE) 29-28. 67kg: Narin Wonglakhon (THA) beat Mohammed Mardi (UAE) 29-28.
71kg: Amine El Moatassime (UAE) w/o Shaker Al Tekreeti (IRQ). 75kg: Youssef Abboud (LBN) w/o Ayoob Saki (IRI).
81kg: Ilyass Habibali (UAE) beat Khaled Tarraf (LBN) 29-28. 86kg: Ali Takaloo (IRI) beat Emil Umayev (KAZ) 30-27.
91kg: Hamid Reza Kordabadi (IRI) beat Mohamad Osaily (LBN) RSC round 1. 91-plus kg: Mohammadrezapoor Shirmohammad (IRI) beat Abdulla Hasan (IRQ) 30-27.
Women's finals
45kg: Somruethai Siripathum (THA) beat Ha Huu Huynh (VIE) 30-27. 48kg: Thanawan Thongduang (THA) beat Colleen Saddi (PHI) 30-27.
51kg: Wansawang Srila Or (THA) beat Thuy Phuong Trieu (VIE) 29-28. 54kg: Ruchira Wongsriwo (THA) beat Zeinab Khatoun (LBN) 30-26.
57kg: Sara Idriss (LBN) beat Zahra Nasiri Bargh (IRI) 30-27. 60kg: Kaewrudee Kamtakrapoom (THA) beat Sedigheh Hajivand (IRI) TKO round 2.
63.5kg: Nadiya Moghaddam (IRI) w/o Reem Al Issa (JOR).
The Details
Kabir Singh
Produced by: Cinestaan Studios, T-Series
Directed by: Sandeep Reddy Vanga
Starring: Shahid Kapoor, Kiara Advani, Suresh Oberoi, Soham Majumdar, Arjun Pahwa
Rating: 2.5/5
The specs
Engine: 8.0-litre, quad-turbo 16-cylinder
Transmission: 7-speed auto
0-100kmh 2.3 seconds
0-200kmh 5.5 seconds
0-300kmh 11.6 seconds
Power: 1500hp
Torque: 1600Nm
Price: Dh13,400,000
On sale: now
JERSEY INFO
Red Jersey
General Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the leader of the General Classification by time.
Green Jersey
Points Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the fastest sprinter, who has obtained the best positions in each stage and intermediate sprints.
White Jersey
Young Rider Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the best young rider born after January 1, 1995 in the overall classification by time (U25).
Black Jersey
Intermediate Sprint Classification: worn daily, starting from Stage 2, by the rider who has gained the most Intermediate Sprint Points.
RESULTS
5pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 2,200m
Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Fernando Jara (jockey), Ahmed Al Mehairbi (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: AF Seven Skies, Bernardo Pinheiro, Qais Aboud
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: Almahroosa, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: AF Sumoud, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,200m
Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Adventurous, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
Lampedusa: Gateway to Europe
Pietro Bartolo and Lidia Tilotta
Quercus
'Will of the People'
Artist: Muse
Label: Warner
Rating: 2.5/5
All The Light We Cannot See
Creator: Steven Knight
Stars: Mark Ruffalo, Hugh Laurie, Aria Mia Loberti
Rating: 1/5
As You Were
Liam Gallagher
(Warner Bros)
J Street Polling Results
97% of Jewish-Americans are concerned about the rise in anti-Semitism
76% of US Jewish voters believe Donald Trump and his allies in the Republican Party are responsible for a rise in anti-Semitism
74% of American Jews agreed that “Trump and the Maga movement are a threat to Jews in America"