In places such as Ordos in Inner Mongolia, hundreds of projects similar to this one have ground to a halt after over-investment that fuelled a building boom has gone bust. Mark Ralston / AFP
In places such as Ordos in Inner Mongolia, hundreds of projects similar to this one have ground to a halt after over-investment that fuelled a building boom has gone bust. Mark Ralston / AFP

Shadow banking fuels China's property bust



Ghostly skeletons of tower blocks under construction, piles of building materials at their feet, half-finished shopping malls, empty apartment buildings with no windows, serviced by dirt tracks full of potholes.

These images of half-built luxury developments have a resonance in parts of the Arabian Gulf, but they are relatively new in China. In the world's second-biggest economy, the property market has slowed significantly since the government introduced cooling measures to stop the boom turning into a bubble.

In places such as Ordos in Inner Mongolia, hundreds of projects have ground to a halt after over-investment fuelled a building boom gone bust, leaving tens of thousands of investors at risk of default.

Much of this is tied to the development of the shadow banking sector. Non-bank lending has started to grow rapidly after lending conditions were tightened following the 2009-10 credit boom.

In the search for investment options that offer more than the minimal return of a bank deposit book, investors in China have been piling into investment vehicles known as trusts, which promise high annual interest rates and a return of principal for people with more than 1 million yuan (Dh590,000) to invest.

Figures vary on the scale of shadow finance in China but not by much.

According to Wang Tao, the chief China analyst at UBS, trusts account for more than a quarter of the country's estimated US$3.35 trillion (Dh12.3tn) in non-bank lending, or about 45 per cent of China's GDP.

Trusts, the backbone of the shadow sector, had 6.3tn yuan of assets under management at the end of the third quarter, up 54 per cent from a year earlier and five times more than at the start of 2009, the Financial Times estimates.

The investment bank Sanford C Bernstein estimates shadow finance in China totals about 20tn yuan or one third of the current size of the bank lending market.

Shadow banking in China includes banks' off-balance-sheet vehicles such as commercial bills and entrusted loans, as well as underground lending by individuals. The reason it is booming in China is because the vast majority, more than 90 per cent of the nation's 42 million small and medium-sized enterprises find it difficult to get bank loans.

Two local developers from Erdos, who asked that their names be changed, are well aware of the problems.

Mr Li, in his 30s, started out as coal mine operator before moving into land speculation and property development in 2004, quickly becoming one of the biggest developers in the region.

"It was a market with great prospects back then and land prices were cheap. I built offices and residences and at the time it was easy to get money from the bank and prices rose rapidly," he says.

He accumulated plenty of capital early on. His latest project is a large multi-function entertainment centre. Construction has been completed but he has run out of liquidity to finish fitting out the interior and other aspects of the project have stopped completely.

"The problem is that national policy changed and it was practically forbidden to lend money for property development any more. Before it was easy to get money from the banks. Now it's not possible at all," says Mr Li.

Like many others in his position, he turned to the trust firms. There are 64 trust firms in China with sales offices in major cities, and they combine characteristics of commercial and investment banking, private equity and wealth management. They pool household savings to offer loans and invest in property, stocks, bonds, commodities, among other things. Apart from them, no financial firms operate across all these asset classes.

"Trusts make us nervous. Their demands are too high," says Mr Li .

If he is not able to pay back the investment in a year, the trust will take over big chunks of his property. Three years ago the trust invested 300m yuan and he paid it back in a year but the pressure was intense.

Developers are now waiting to see what happens following the 18th Communist Party congress late last year, which installed a new leadership.

"Local governments will be full of 18th party congress spirit. The central government will try to do more to improve people's livelihoods and it's possible that these ghost developments will be turned into low-rent housing, or as places to settle people who have been moved out of their homes," says Mr Li.

"Our only hope is to rely on the local government, to see if there are any new policies, to see what they can do for us. Otherwise we have no other way out."

Mr Zhao, a property developer, only started investing two years ago, spending 45m yuan on a plot of land to build a 60,000-square-metre residential development.

"The buildings are almost finished but I've had to stop building, since there is no money left any more and nobody is buying property as they have no money left. They used up their savings in the early boom years and they are not getting any return," says Mr Zhao.

He, too, is hoping the local government intervenes and buy up his ghost development to use as housing for low-income families.

One of the reasons for the rise of the shadow-banking sector has been the fact that it is difficult for Chinese investors to find place for their money. The domestic stock market is strictly limited and it is difficult for local investors to put their money overseas.

The ruling Communist Party has promised to promote freer movement of capital in and out of the country for investment purposes and to make the exchange rate more market-based.

The government has promised to keep an eye on shadow banking to make sure it does not get out of hand.

"China's non-banking financial institutions are under strict regulatory supervision, rather than free of regulation as in some countries," Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, said during the 18th Communist Party congress in November that chose Xi Jinping as China's next president.

Ms Tao, the UBS analyst, believes to address the issues raised by shadow banking and reduce risks, the government should be prioritising macro and prudential policy objectives and reform the current monetary policy management practice.

"For example, if the government is truly concerned about local government debt and the asset quality of banks, it should rely more on fiscal policy to support growth rather than encouraging credit expansion," she says.

If the government still wants to rely on credit expansion to support growth, then it should increase the outright credit quota instead of pushing banks to the less regulated channels.

"In the near future, since most shadow banking activities [such as trusts and bills] are still regulated by the same banking regulatory commission, and as the development has been recent and still modest, we do not see major systematic issues," says Ms Tao.

Xiao Gang, the management board chairman of Bank of China, warned in a recent column in the China Daily how the country's shadow banking was contributing to a growing liquidity risk in the financial markets.

"China's shadow banking system is complex, with a close yet opaque relationship to the regular banking system and the real economy. It must be tackled with care and sufficient flexibility but it must be tackled nonetheless," said Mr Xiao.

"Regular banking and shadow banking are not isolated from each other.

"Many activities in the two systems feed into each other, and could influence each other if things start to deteriorate," he wrote.

The specs
 
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
RESULTS

6.30pm: Longines Conquest Classic Dh150,000 Maiden 1,200m.
Winner: Halima Hatun, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ismail Mohammed (trainer).

7.05pm: Longines Gents La Grande Classique Dh155,000 Handicap 1,200m.
Winner: Moosir, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.

7.40pm: Longines Equestrian Collection Dh150,000 Maiden 1,600m.
Winner: Mazeed, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.

8.15pm: Longines Gents Master Collection Dh175,000 Handicap.
Winner: Thegreatcollection, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.

8.50pm: Longines Ladies Master Collection Dh225,000 Conditions 1,600m.
Winner: Cosmo Charlie, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson.

9.25pm: Longines Ladies La Grande Classique Dh155,000 Handicap 1,600m.
Winner: Secret Trade, Tadhg O’Shea, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.

10pm: Longines Moon Phase Master Collection Dh170,000 Handicap 2,000m.
Winner:

The 12 Syrian entities delisted by UK 

Ministry of Interior
Ministry of Defence
General Intelligence Directorate
Air Force Intelligence Agency
Political Security Directorate
Syrian National Security Bureau
Military Intelligence Directorate
Army Supply Bureau
General Organisation of Radio and TV
Al Watan newspaper
Cham Press TV
Sama TV

Abu Dhabi racecard

5pm: Maiden (Purebred Arabians); Dh80,000; 1,400m.
5.30pm: Maiden (PA); Dh80,00; 1,400m.
6pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (PA); Group 3; Dh500,000; 1,600m.
6.30pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (Thoroughbred); Listed; Dh380,000; 1,600m
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup for Private Owners Handicap (PA); Dh70,000; 1,400m.
7.30pm: Handicap (PA); Dh80,000; 1,600m

UAE SQUAD FOR ASIAN JIU-JITSU CHAMPIONSHIP

Men’s squad: Faisal Al Ketbi, Omar Al Fadhli, Zayed Al Kathiri, Thiab Al Nuaimi, Khaled Al Shehhi, Mohamed Ali Al Suwaidi, Farraj Khaled Al Awlaqi, Muhammad Al Ameri, Mahdi Al Awlaqi, Saeed Al Qubaisi, Abdullah Al Qubaisi and Hazaa Farhan

Women's squad: Hamda Al Shekheili, Shouq Al Dhanhani, Balqis Abdullah, Sharifa Al Namani, Asma Al Hosani, Maitha Sultan, Bashayer Al Matrooshi, Maha Al Hanaei, Shamma Al Kalbani, Haya Al Jahuri, Mahra Mahfouz, Marwa Al Hosani, Tasneem Al Jahoori and Maryam Al Amri

Dubai Bling season three

Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed 

Rating: 1/5

2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Sub Regional Qualifier

Event info: The tournament in Kuwait this month is the first phase of the qualifying process for sides from Asia for the 2020 World T20 in Australia. The UAE must finish within the top three teams out of the six at the competition to advance to the Asia regional finals. Success at regional finals would mean progression to the World T20 Qualifier.

UAE’s fixtures: Fri Apr 20, UAE v Qatar; Sat Apr 21, UAE v Saudi Arabia; Mon Apr 23, UAE v Bahrain; Tue Apr 24, UAE v Maldives; Thu Apr 26, UAE v Kuwait

World T20 2020 Qualifying process:

  • Sixteen teams will play at the World T20 in two years’ time.
  • Australia have already qualified as hosts
  • Nine places are available to the top nine ranked sides in the ICC’s T20i standings, not including Australia, on Dec 31, 2018.
  • The final six teams will be decided by a 14-team World T20 Qualifier.

World T20 standings: 1 Pakistan; 2 Australia; 3 India; 4 New Zealand; 5 England; 6 South Africa; 7 West Indies; 8 Sri Lanka; 9 Afghanistan; 10 Bangladesh; 11 Scotland; 12 Zimbabwe; 13 UAE; 14 Netherlands; 15 Hong Kong; 16 Papua New Guinea; 17 Oman; 18 Ireland

A MINECRAFT MOVIE

Director: Jared Hess

Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa

Rating: 3/5

The line up

Friday: Giggs, Sho Madjozi and Masego  

Saturday: Nas, Lion Bbae, Roxanne Shante and DaniLeigh  

Sole DXB runs from December 6 to 8 at Dubai Design District. Weekend pass is Dh295 while a one day pass is Dh195. Tickets are available from www.soledxb.com

PROFILE OF SWVL

Started: April 2017

Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh

Based: Cairo, Egypt

Sector: transport

Size: 450 employees

Investment: approximately $80 million

Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani

THE BIO

Ms Davison came to Dubai from Kerala after her marriage in 1996 when she was 21-years-old

Since 2001, Ms Davison has worked at many affordable schools such as Our Own English High School in Sharjah, and The Apple International School and Amled School in Dubai

Favourite Book: The Alchemist

Favourite quote: Failing to prepare is preparing to fail

Favourite place to Travel to: Vienna

Favourite cuisine: Italian food

Favourite Movie : Scent of a Woman

 

 

The specs

Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel

Power: 579hp

Torque: 859Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh825,900

On sale: Now

Monster

Directed by: Anthony Mandler

Starring: Kelvin Harrison Jr., John David Washington 

3/5

 

Europe’s rearming plan
  • Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
  • Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
  • Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
  • Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
  • Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
While you're here
Our legal consultant

Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Test

Director: S Sashikanth

Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan

Star rating: 2/5

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills