Egypt’s currency devaluation will boost the property sector and the stocks of listed developers.
In a research note, the Egyptian investment bank Naeem Brokerage said that all listed property companies should have an uplift in values following Monday’s decision by Egypt’s central bank to devalue the pound by 13 per cent – to 8.85 Egyptian pounds per US dollar, from 7.73 pounds.
It argued that “investors would look to buffet their risk by investing in land and property”, stating that those with the biggest land banks should benefit the most.
Mamdouh Abdel Wahab, the investor relations and investments director at Palm Hills Development, said that property is likely to become more popular for Egyptians “who want to hedge against inflation”.
However, he said that Egypt’s residential sector, in particular, had not been in need of assistance, given that it thrived throughout the Arab Spring and the 2013 revolution.
Just before this week’s devaluation was announced, Palm Hills sold all 108 units in the first phase of its Palm Valley project in West Cairo within 48 hours of its launch for 491 million pounds (Dh201.5m, after devaluation; Dh233.3m before devaluation).
“Of course, devaluation will have a negative effect on everything else,” he said, adding that it would cause a corresponding decline in people’s disposable incomes and an increase in construction costs.
“But for demand it’s positive. The CBE [Central Bank of Egypt] said they would be applying a flexible regime or policy, so it means they might be doing another round of devaluation in the future if we see the gap between the official rate and the black market widening again.”
Ayman Sami, the Egypt country head for property consultancy JLL, does not believe that the devaluation will make a significant difference to the housing market. He said that over the past few years, demand has outstripped supply and prices have been increasing by an average of 5 to 15 per cent each year.
“It’s not a huge increase – 15 per cent is normal for residential, according to our reports.”
For other parts of Egypt’s property market, though, he expects the devaluation to have a mixed effect. It will prove beneficial for hotels, for example, by making Egypt a cheaper destination for overseas tourists but in the office market it is likely to be a source of dispute as Grade A building rents are often agreed in US dollars.
Erik Volkers, an associate director on CBRE Middle East’s advisory team, said that the devaluation was aimed at bringing in overseas investment.
“The move comes at a time when the real estate market is struggling to recover from various … setbacks, which have decimated the tourism market and negatively impacted appetite for foreign ownership of properties,” he said. “With better value now apparent in the market, we can expect to see renewed foreign interest, although in the short term we expect investors to remain somewhat cautious.”
JLL’s Mr Sami agreed that the currency devaluation on its own is likely to shape investor sentiment but felt that it is part of a wider government strategy to make Egypt more investor-friendly.
“Having clarity and more transparency on currency is important to an investor and that is an area that was slowing down some decisions.
“Now that you have a rate that is more in line with supply and demand, investors will be encouraged.”
mfahy@thenational.ae
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